(Bloomberg) — Mexico’s headline inflation slowed slightly more than expected in November, boosting the odds of a fourth straight interest rate cut at the central bank’s meeting next week.
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Official data released Monday showed consumer prices rose 4.55% from a year prior, under both the 4.6% median estimate of economists surveyed by Bloomberg and the 4.76% reading in October. Monthly inflation stood at 0.44%.
Core inflation, which is closely watched by the central bank and excludes volatile items such as food and fuel, eased to 3.58% compared to the year prior, just under the 3.6% median estimate. The central bank, which holds its next rate-decision meeting Dec. 19, targets cost-of-living increases of 3%, plus or minus 1 percentage point.
While sticky headline inflation has vexed Banxico, as the central bank is known, policymakers have paid more attention to the uninterrupted downward trend in core measures. Board members led by bank Governor Victoria Rodriguez have also expressed concern about the recent slowdown in the Mexican economy.
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“Slower November inflation showed price pressures from supply shocks, higher costs and excess domestic demand are abating in Mexico. Accumulated peso depreciation since April is still a risk but recent data haven’t show any meaningful impact. We expect inflation to continue slowing into 2025. That would allow policymakers cut interest rates further, but given US policy uncertainty, we don’t see them accelerating the easing pace.”
— Felipe Hernandez, Latin America economist
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Energy bills jumped 4.04% on the month in November, while goods prices fell 0.27% driven by discounts given through the “Black Friday” shopping period, according to the national statistics institute. Food and beverage prices rose 0.24%, with fruits and vegetables up 0.71%.
“Weaker domestic demand is pulling down core measures,” said Andres Abadia, chief economist for Latin America at Pantheon Macroeconomics. He expects inflation to ease further in coming months, amid a modest pace of economic activity, declines in oil prices and tight financial conditions.
Last month Banxico voted unanimously to cut its key interest rate by a quarter-point to 10.25%, and signaled willingness to consider bigger reductions as core inflation continues to slow. Analysts in a Citi survey published on Dec. 5 see the bank delivering another drop of 25 basis points next week.
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The bank’s restrictive policy stance is imposing a significant drag on the economy, which will likely slow for a third year in 2024 and also again in 2025. Banxico sees the economy growing 1.8% this year and 1.2% in 2025.
–With assistance from Rafael Gayol.
(Updates to swap in inflation breakdwon chart)
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Publish date : 2024-12-09 01:18:00
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