NEW ORLEANS (WGNO) — The National Hurricane Center has designated an area of low pressure in the Caribbean as “Potential Tropical Cyclone Nineteen,” and forecasts it will strengthen into a tropical storm within the next 24 hours. The next name on the list is Sara.
The storm’s motion is currently uncertain as it is still in the early stages of development, but the NHC estimates the system is generally moving westward at approximately 6 mph.
This westward motion is expected to continue over the next few days at a slower pace as the system progresses into the western Caribbean Sea.
Later this week and over the weekend, weakened steering currents are likely to cause the system to meander offshore or along the coast of Central America. Toward the end of the forecast period, a front moving into the western Gulf of Mexico is expected to shift the storm to a northwestward track.
While forecast models generally align on the storm’s projected path, there is uncertainty regarding potential land interaction in Central America and whether the system will make landfall.
Some models indicate the system may form a more organized center within the next day or so, allowing for potential strengthening.
Environmental conditions are favorable for intensification as the system approaches the western Caribbean. However, uncertainty remains due to possible land interactions. Should the system stay over water, it could strengthen further; if it moves over Central America, weakening is likely.
The NHC has issued Tropical Storm and Hurricane Watches for parts of Nicaragua and Honduras. Significant, life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides are likely in parts of Central America, particularly in Honduras, Belize, El Salvador, eastern Guatemala, and western Nicaragua, through early next week.
It is too early to determine possible impacts for the eastern Gulf of Mexico, including Florida, the Florida Keys, and Cuba. The NHC says residents in these areas should regularly monitor updates.
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Publish date : 2024-11-13 10:24:00
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