Opportunities and Risks in the Trump Era

[ad_1]

By Judith Mora

London, Dec 3 (EFE).– Latin America stands to gain from opportunities in critical minerals and trade under Donald Trump’s second term as the US president, but the region faces risks from his unpredictable policies and focus on security and immigration issues, experts warned at a London presentation of the ‘LatAm Outlook 2025’ report.

A trade strategy driven by US-China tensions could also benefit Latin America under Trump’s new administration.

The future of Latin America was discussed during the presentation in London of the ‘LatAm Outlook 2025’ report by the Canning House think tank, which examines political, economic, and social trends in the region.

“The coming years will be decisive for the region’s ability to influence global events. Donald Trump’s return to the US presidency offers Latin America the chance of working with Washington to supply critical minerals, boost hemispheric trade, and bring production back from China closer to the US market, allowing companies to source from allies of the US,” the report noted.

“But Trump’s threat to impose a 25 percent tariff on all Mexican and Canadian imports, his preference for a transactional foreign policy, and his strong distrust of China will increase pressure on the region to pick sides.”

Customized Relationships Christian Perlingiere, from the consulting firm Control Risks and one of the report’s authors, told EFE that a major risk of a Trump administration is its likely focus on security and immigration issues in Mexico and Central America.

This could dominate relations with those regions, while other Latin American countries may face a lack of attention as the US prioritizes other issues.

Perlingiere also noted that opportunities for Latin American countries will likely depend on personalized relations.

He said if there were strong political and business ties with Trump’s administration, that might bring advantages. “Personal relationships could take precedence over institutional ones.”

Michael Stott, a specialist from the Financial Times, suggested that the appointment of Marco Rubio as US Secretary of State could lead to sanctions against Cuba, Venezuela, and Nicaragua.

Stott also argued that the decline of Western influence offers Latin America an opportunity to “shine on the world stage.”

However, he warned that this potential is hindered by regional political polarization and “the lack of a strong and effective regional body” to channel Latin America’s influence in global forums such as the BRICS or the G20.

Stott highlighted Latin America’s advantages, including a commitment to peaceful coexistence, respect for human rights, free elections, and the environment.

The region also has vast natural resources, many of which are critical to the global energy transition, and maintains strong ties with Africa, the Middle East, and Asia.

Experts agreed that without financial commitments from the United States or other countries like the United Kingdom, China’s presence in Latin America will continue to grow, as it remains one of the main investors in regional infrastructure.

The Energy Transition David Purkey, director of the Latin America Center at the Stockholm Environment Institute in Bogotá, emphasized Latin America’s potential to lead the global energy transition due to its access to renewable energy sources and strategic minerals, particularly lithium.

While countries like Argentina and Mexico need to reduce their dependence on hydrocarbons, Purkey noted that the emissions intensity in the region is below the global average.

He added that a solid foundation for renewable energy would help reduce the climate vulnerability of hydroelectric systems and accelerate the phase-out of fossil fuels.

The report also stated that to attract foreign investors, Latin American nations must reduce the impact of organized crime on safety, the rule of law, and democratic governance.

“Alternatives to heavy-handed approaches, which often gain political support but are counterproductive, should be pursued. Combining effective law enforcement with economic and social programs, including providing legitimate livelihoods for impoverished communities, is essential.” EFE

jm-sk

[ad_1]

Source link : http://www.bing.com/news/apiclick.aspx?ref=FexRss&aid=&tid=674f3bdccd5048fba801e7f9231f7a50&url=https%3A%2F%2Fefe.com%2Fen%2Fother-news%2F2024-12-03%2Ftrump-2-0-latin-americas%2F&c=17137976933772968937&mkt=en-us Author : Publish date : 2024-12-03 02:58:00 Copyright for syndicated content belongs to the linked Source .