President-elect Donald Trump’s team is gaming out an aggressive strategy toward Latin America that will be a crucial element to plans to deport migrants at large scale, according to two sources involved in transition policy discussions.
During his first term, Trump took a hardline – and at times, scatter shot – approach toward the region, which was largely the source of migration to the United States, including levying consequences, like sanctions, and threatening and imposing tariffs.
In his second term, the region will continue to play a central role in plans to stem the flow of migration and return people who are undocumented in the US. Deportation often hinges on diplomacy – and has been a steep challenge for the US when dealing with countries where there are frosty relations.
This time around, sources involved and close to the transition said they’re better prepared as they seek ways to engage in a forceful manner and leverage allies, while also floating the possibility of stiff consequences for countries who don’t comply. Taken together, it’s a return to a hardline approach meant to get countries receiving deportees to comply and attempt to curb migration.
“Every tool is in our arsenal. There’s an ever-stream of creativity,” one of the sources said.
The strategy amounts to relying heavily on Mexico, as the US has traditionally done, to control migration to their northern border, bringing back agreements that barred migrants from seeking asylum in the US if they passed through certain countries, and working closely with Panama to stop the flow of migrants through the Darien Gap.
It’s a plan that requires buy-in from regional partners. But sources close to and involved in discussions argue they’ve identified the incentives and pressure points to have countries cooperate.
“Everything is on the table,” the source said, referring to ensuring countries take back their nationals. “Once the president re-establishes credibility and consequences, it’s not something taken lightly.”
In recent years, the Western Hemisphere faced record migration fueled by deteriorating conditions that only worsened during the coronavirus pandemic. That resulted in surges at the US-Mexico border that strained already-overwhelmed federal resources.
The changing demographics arriving at the border has also complicated deportations. For example, poor economic conditions, food shortages and limited access to health care have pushed more than 7.7 million people to flee Venezuela, marking the largest displacement in the Western Hemisphere – and many chose to go north.
Venezuela briefly accepted deportation flights but then stopped.
Trump’s team is prepared to bring back sanctions, which the Biden administration softened to try to stabilize the country, if Venezuela doesn’t comply, sources said, though it’s unclear whether that would move the needle.
“There has been change and turnover on a bilateral basis, but by the end of the first term we were very aware of the incentives and pressure points – that wasn’t something we knew or had a full understanding of coming in. Other governments know our priorities, too – and know we’re serious about this,” said a former official currently involved in the planning.
The Biden administration has secured some breakthroughs, including being able to conduct repatriation flights to China.
Governments in the region have also signaled that they’re keenly aware of the approach Trump is likely to take and preparing as a result.
“They expect he’s going to be fierce and destructive to the region. He’s going to take advantage at every opportunity and leverage opportunities,” according to a source familiar with discussions. “It’s been very matter of fact. Everyone is preparing in a very savvy way for the approaches he’s going to take.”
Trump’s pledge to deport undocumented immigrants, if enacted, could also wreak havoc across the region, where many countries depend on remittances from the US to boost their economies.
The executive actions and reviews underway by the Trump team include the return of the program informally known as “remain in Mexico,” which requires migrants to stay in Mexico during their immigration proceedings in the US.
Shortly after Trump won the presidential election, Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum said she had a “cordial” call with Trump where they discussed the “good relationship” between Mexico and the US, according to a post on X.
Trump’s team is also preparing to launch negotiations to re-implement what was previously known as Asylum Cooperative Agreements, sources said.
The agreements – initiated during Trump’s first term – marked a significant shift in US asylum policy as migrants who may have legitimate claims for asylum could be sent to other countries to make their cases.
The US was in various stages of the agreements with the Northern Triangle countries of Guatemala, El Salvador and Honduras, but only the agreement with Guatemala was ever really up and running.
El Salvador is expected to be a key ally in bringing back those agreements, according to one of the sources, who said the governments in Guatemala and Honduras may prove to be a challenge. El Salvador’s President Nayib Bukele was among the first leaders to congratulate Trump.
“A second-term Trump administration will expand ‘burden-sharing’ deals with Honduras, Guatemala and El Salvador that cut off pathways to the US for asylum-seekers. The goal is to expand the reach of those to as many countries, continents, regions as possible,” the former official said.
Biden administration officials also sought to secure commitments from regional partners to curb migration and share migration responsibilities, including through what became known as the Los Angeles declaration, but also faced challenges amid country constraints.
Experts say Trump’s expected approach may also face hurdles.
“It’s a dance,” said Andrew Selee, president of the nonpartisan think tank Migration Policy Institute. “The US holds a lot of cards, but not all of the cards.”
CNN’s Phil Mattingly contributed to this report.
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Publish date : 2024-11-20 23:00:00
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