Mexico has a new president. Claudia Sheinbaum, a climate scientist who’s the protégé of Mexico’s former leftist populist president, Andrés Manuel Lopez Obrador, is also the first woman to become president there.
But, where AMLO found an unlikely “bromance” with former U.S. President Donald Trump, there’s skepticism that Sheinbaum would do the same if he wins in November.
Mexico is also a major trading partner for the U.S. and the top trading partner for Arizona. When it comes to the border and immigration, Sheinbaum’s role could be essential in working with the federal government here.
Luis Coronado Guel, director of Mexico initiatives at the University of Arizona’s College of Social and Behavioral Sciences, joined The Show to discuss.
Full conversation
LUIS CORONADO GUEL: She actually stated that she’s gonna pursue more policy of clean energy and this is, this is clearly one of the most important statements she made in distancing from the previous administration. It seems to me that seeing her profile as a scientist who studied abroad, it, it looks to me that she’s gonna emphasize more that side and, and also she declared, you know, related to Pemex, the national oil company that she plans actually to reduce the production just for the national consume, which actually is very different to what AMLO stated in his term.
LAUREN GILGER: So some big differences, it sounds like on climate, which makes sense coming from her background. Let me ask you about some potential differences in how she might deal with a Trump administration versus a Harris administration, right? AMLO and President Trump had this interesting relationship that was often referred to as a bromance, right? Might we expect a similar relationship between Trump and and Sheinbaum if Trump were to win?
GUEL: You know, from my point of view, we see even a generational renewal, I mean, Sheinbaum, she’s the first woman in, in office, but also she’s a scientist and she’s also younger than, than AMLO. So I, I see that this camaraderie you saw between AMLO and, and Trump is not likely to be the same, obviously, because of this gender differences, right? And, and the approach to gender they have.
In, in terms of kind of public policy, it seems to me that there will be a continuation of certain uses and, and and customs with the United States. Although, you know, President Sheinbaum declared that she’s gonna wait to have a, a formal interview, her first formal interview with, with an American president once she knows who is going to be the winner.
So this, this actually changes a lot, kind of this relation AMLO used to have with ambassador Ken Salazar and also with this new potential administrator, whether it’s Harris or Trump.
GILGER: So I want to ask you about two major issues that Sheinbaum will be dealing with when it comes to the U.S., which are immigration and trade. Let’s start with immigration and, and the rhetoric around it. I wonder, like I know immigration is a sensitive topic in Mexico. I also know that Amlo did a lot to crack down on immigration on Mexico’s southern border when he was in office. How does each American candidates’ kind of rhetoric on immigration land in Mexico?
GUEL: Well, I, I think immigration and economy goes along and, and one of the policies that AMLO put in place to, to deal with immigration in the first place was sending 28,000 soldiers to the southern border of Mexico to control the immigrants from Central America and other parts in South America. And that seems likely to continue. And the enforcement in the northern states, I think, is gonna continue the same.
Although we have seen in this first month of Sheinbaum that the majority … the Congress of Mexico, they have passed a reform, an important reform to put the National Guard under the secretary of defense control. So this has a lot of implications on how Mexico will deal now with immigration and definitely this will impact the way in which both candidates, Harris and Trump, are approaching the immigration issue.
And we have seen in, in both cases that both Trump and Kamala Harris have been visiting the border, stating that they need to enforce and re-enforce the the border, which has been a constant in both campaigns. So I, I, I think it’s definitely an issue that it will come into some sort of result for electors in the United States.
GILGER: Let me ask you about trade then, I mean, obviously that’s a hugely important part of Mexico’s economy, trade with the U.S. It’s usually important part of Arizona’s economy, trade with Mexico. I know Sheinbaum party’s policies have, have expanded welfare programs in Mexico and, and all of that kind of depends on that U.S.-Mexico trade relationship. Tell us how she might approach that and the upcoming review of the USMCA trade deal next year.
GUEL: Well, definitely, I mean, what we have seen in both candidates in the United States, so Harris and Trump had stated kind of a similar approach to, to the USMCA treaty. Both of them have openly said that they will pursue a review of the, of the treaty. And obviously all the reforms that Mexico is now going through, it’s, they are gonna affect some way or another, the way that the USMCA is working at this point.
And considering China right now as, as this kind of outsider, right? And that is, is trying to establish investments also in Mexico. If these rules change in the future, obviously, some investors probably will look over other points for investment rather than Mexico. So I think we are in of a certain uncertainty, let’s say that. It’s very uncertain at this point to see what is going to happen. But both approaches from both candidates are are kind of similar.
GILGER: From an Arizona perspective, I mean, do you think there are things that local trade representatives from our state government are going to be looking at with this new administration in Mexico?
GUEL: What I have seen locally is that, you know, in many ways, local investors from Sonora and Arizona, they, they keep cooperating and, and actually recently, probably six or eight months ago, [Sonora, Mexico] Gov. [Alfonso] Durazo and Gov. [Katie] Hobbs signed an important agreement on semiconductors.
So if you see that along with all the investment in solar energy near to Puerto Penasco and other areas in Sonora that are directly connected with the interests of the United States in the border, we can see that the relation between Arizona and Sonora is gonna continue and the rhetoric between the national politicians usually are more related to national elections, right? So in my opinion, we will see that all this inflammatory rhetoric is going to end once we have someone else in office because there are so many different interests going on back and forth in Arizona and Sonora.
KJZZ’s The Show transcripts are created on deadline. This text is edited for length and clarity, and may not be in its final form. The authoritative record of KJZZ’s programming is the audio record.
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Publish date : 2024-10-24 04:59:00
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