Election Promises vs. Economic Reality: Sri Lanka’s False Hope

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by Shamindra Ferdinando

On behalf of the Pathfinder Foundation, its Chairman Bernard Goonetilleke recently handed over what the think-tank called policy documents titled (i) ‘Economic Crisis in Sri Lanka: Policy Challenges for the New Government,’ and (ii) ‘Bridging Borders: Enhancing Connectivity between India and Sri Lanka,’ to presidential candidates Ranil Wickremesinghe (independent), Sajith Premadasa (SJB), Anura Kumara Dissanayake (JJB) Namal Rajapaksa (SLPP) and Dilith Jayaweera (CP). Dr. Nihal Abeysinghe received the Pathfinder documents on behalf of JVP and JJB leader Dissanayake.

Ranil Wickremesinghe delivers a key address at an election campaign rally. Having served the Foreign Service for nearly 40 years, Goonetilleke received the appointment as Chairman, Pathfinder Foundation, founded by Milinda Moragoda, in May 2010, two years after his retirement.

Goonetilleke served as Sri Lanka’s Ambassador in Washington during the 2005-2008 period as the combined forces were battling the separatist LTTE (Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam). The war was brought to a successful end in May 2009. Before being posted to Washington, Goonetilleke also served as Foreign Secretary (2003-2004) during the Norway-led peace initiative that led to Eelam War IV.

Meticulously prepared Pathfinder documents, however, underscored the pivotal importance of future foreign and economic policies as bankrupt Sri Lanka holds the presidential election with much trepidation, later this week, because of the unknowns in the form of foreign agendas, especially from the West.

The Foundation methodically addressed the entire range of issues confronting bankrupt Sri Lanka now trapped in the US-led efforts to contain China. India being part of the strategic ‘Quad’ (The Quadrilateral Security Dialogue) alliance is quite clearly worried about Chinese intentions here. Having examined Pathfinder documents, the writer is of the opinion that the organization that described itself as an independent, non-partisan research and advocacy think-tank, in fact, however, appears to be blindly and absolutely backing the International Monetary Fund programme promoted as a panacea for the country’s ills. It also throws its weight behind the ongoing Indo-Lanka initiatives at all levels. In other words it is not a case about finding a winning path, but merely backing a trail trodden by so many from the third world as dictated by the twin sisters in Washington, with hardly any success from South America to Africa and Asia.

It would be pertinent to mention that Milinda Moragoda, the Pathfinder founder and former Sri Lanka’s High Commissioner to New Delhi, who has apparently tied his wagon to Indian interests, recently presented a copy of the foundation’s Study Group Report on ‘India-Sri Lanka Physical Connectivity’ to Indian National Security Advisor Ajit Kumar Doval. This happened during the latter’s recent controversial visit to Colombo. The report provides a comprehensive blueprint for physical connectivity between the two countries in road, rail, electricity and petroleum sectors.

It is not difficult to understand that the second policy document ‘Bridging Borders: Enhancing Connectivity between India and Sri Lanka’ also dealt with the issues addressed by the Pathfinder Study Group Report on ‘India-Sri Lanka Physical Connectivity.’ In fact, the thought-provoking reports are the same.

The longest serving Indian National Security Advisor Doval’s latest visit to Colombo caused intense controversy due to the former head of internal and counterintelligence agency meeting three of the contestants – Wickremesinghe, Premadasa and Dissanayake – as well as Tamil politicians representing the North East, upcountry and Colombo. Their decision to leave out SLPP candidate Namal Rajapaksa is understandable. India obviously considers that the SLPP has no chance at all at the presidential election, with its vote base divided between President Wickremesinghe and former President Mahinda Rajapaksa’s eldest son, Namal.

Doval is on his third term having received the appointment in 2014 after Narendra Modi’s victory at the general election. Whatever the official explanation regarding Doval’s latest visit to Colombo, no one can justify meeting presidential candidates and scores of other lawmakers. From New Delhi’s point of view, India, under any circumstances, cannot allow Colombo to deviate from the post-Aragalaya path.

At the behest of the IMF, in May this year, President Wickremesinghe presented the Economic Transformation Bill, the Public Debt Management Bill and the Public Financial Management Bill. President Wickremesinghe repeatedly declared that these Bills were meant to stabilise the economy and prevent another debt default crisis. Out of that lot, the Economic Transformation Bill can be categorized as the most important and politically sensitive. Enacted in July, the new law brought all political parties backing Wickremesinghe, Premadasa and Dissanayake in line with the IMF formula or strategy or whatever you desire to call it.

Interestingly, the group of dissident SLPP MPs, backing Dilith Jayaweera, never raised objections to it at the time. They could have demanded a vote on the Economic Transformation Bill or at least publicly questioned the circumstances the controversial Bill was passed.

Post-war presidential polls

Sri Lanka conducted three presidential polls since the eradication of the LTTE, widely considered combined forces brought the LTTE to its knees, following a relentless campaign conducted over a period of two years and 10 months.

Those who couldn’t stomach the LTTE’s annihilation, resented President Mahinda Rajapaksa. They wanted to see the back of the war-winning President, who defied the West’s last minute effort to rescue Tiger Leader Velupillai Prabhakaran and his core group as they were cornered into a sliver of land between the Nanthikadal lagoon and the Mullaitivu beach surrounded by a Tamil civilian human shield they were holding for their protection. Political parties represented in Parliament collaborated with the US in a treacherous attempt to defeat Mahinda Rajapaksa. In spite of the JVP, SLMC, CWC joining the UNP in a despicable US backed project, their so-called common candidate, retired General Sarath Fonseka, ended up with egg on his face.

Contesting under the ‘Swan’ symbol, hitherto an unheard of sign at local elections, and the registered political party New Democratic Front (NDF), Fonseka polled 4,173,185 (40.15%) whereas Rajapaksa secured 6,015,934 (57.88%).

Appearing on the live Sirasa political programme ‘Satana’ last week the Sinha Regiment veteran Fonseka, an independent candidate contesting Sept. 21 presidential poll, repeated the preposterous accusation that he was robbed of victory at the 2010 presidential election.

In the wake of Fonseka’s defeat, the late Somawansa Amarasinghe, the then JVP leader, alleged that computer ‘jilmaat’ (jugglery) had been resorted to defeat Fonseka.

Thanks to secrets revealed by WikiLeaks the world knows the US intervention at the 2010 presidential election. Interestingly, Maithripala Sirisena and Sajith Premadasa contested the 2015 and 2019 presidential elections, also under ‘Swan’ symbol, though the JVP quit the alliance ahead of the 2019 poll. Contesting under the JJB symbol for the first time Anura Kumara Dissanayake emerged third at the 2019 election with 418,553 votes (3.16%) but in post-Aragalaya scenario, the JVPer is one of the top contenders.

Having recognized the JJB’s potential to secure power at the next presidential election, the first national poll after Aragalaya, New Delhi extended an invitation to Dissanayake for a five-day tour that enabled him to visit New Delhi, Ahmedabad, and Thiruvananthapuram. The visit assumed greater significance as Dissanayake was granted the opportunity to meet External Affairs Minister Dr. S. Jaishankar and Doval.

Colombo based longstanding correspondent of The Hindu Meera Srinivasan quoted JJB MP Vijitha Herath as having said: “In our meeting with Mr. Doval, we discussed regional security and bilateral issues concerning India and Sri Lanka.”

The JJB forgetting all their revolutionary zeal also secured US recognition and over the past two years developed its relations with the Western camp and became globetrotting savvy politicians as the party was groomed as a likely alternative to incumbent President Wickremesinghe. The challenge faced by Wickremesinghe should be examined against the backdrop of him having to depend entirely on the SLPP’s support. With the UNP reduced to just one lawmaker in Parliament, Wickremesinghe has no alternative but to reach a consensus with the SLPP – a highly contentious move that caused irreparable damage to that party. At the end, a divided SLPP ended up backing two candidates President Wickremesinghe and Namal Rajapaksa.

Premier Dinesh Gunawardena, who had been with the Rajapaksas for many decades, broke ranks with his erstwhile buddies to pitch camp with his school buddy and UNP leader Wickremesinghe who suffered two major setbacks in the run-up to the presidential poll. Despite desperate efforts to convince the SJB parliamentary group to switch allegiance to him at Premadasa’s expense, the President did not succeed. Firstly the Supreme Court unseated three SJBers, namely Harin Fernando, Manusha Nanayakkara and Diana Gamage who held Cabinet and non-Cabinet portfolios, respectively, in separate cases.

The other devastating setback was his failure to secure the SLPP’s support, thereby preventing a split in the party voter base. Had Wickremesinghe managed to secure the backing of an undivided SLPP along with the majority of SJB parliamentary group, the ground situation could have been much more favourable to the incumbent President.

Turning a blind eye to external interventions

The EU and the Commonwealth are among international poll observation missions already deployed here. However, they are unlikely to pay attention to foreign interventions. In fact, international missions have never discussed the issue in the past. Local polls monitoring missions, too, are unlikely to comment on foreign interventions for obvious reason of them being dependent on foreign funding. So not a hum from them in the past despite worldwide shock revelations, especially by WikiLeaks, nor can the country expect any in the future.

In fact, foreign interventions have made election manifestos/policy statements of leading candidates irrelevant. The recent Doval visit as well as the US stand during Aragalaya and post-Aragalaya showed the growing dangers facing the country. Trapped in developing economic-political and social crises, the Wickremesingthe-SLPP government continuously struggled to overcome daunting foreign policy challenges.

In the face of relentless Indian and US pressure, Sri Lanka had no option but to impose a one-year ban on the entry of foreign research vessels to Sri Lankan waters. The ban came into effect on January 1, this year. It would be a major issue that would test whoever wins the Sept. 21 contest as China would be determined to have that ban lifted whereas India and the US wanted restrictions imposed on foreign research vessels extended. That order is meant to bar Chinese vessels.

External interventions here have reached a dangerous level with foreign powers seeking control over political parties. One-time Indian Foreign Secretary Shivshankar Menon, in ‘Choices: Inside the Making of Indian Foreign Policy’, launched in 2016, discussed how China funded earlier election-winning apparatus for defeated President Mahinda Rajapaksa. In the same year, the then US Secretary of State John Kerry crowed in public about how they funded ‘regime-change’ operations in Nicaragua, Myanmar and Sri Lanka to the tune of USD 585 mn. This declaration was made in the wake of Mahinda Rajapaksa’s defeat at the 2015 presidential poll. That US statement proved beyond doubt that the US got involved in the 2015 presidential election, too.

None of the contesting political parties here would dare to complain to foreign election observation missions about external interventions. Election monitors issue statements about setting up so-called party offices, an utterly useless exercise that wouldn’t have any impact whatsoever on the electorate whereas external powers brazenly intervene here, both overtly and covertly.

The Parliament, too, remained conveniently silent over external interventions though some lawmakers addressed the issue. Current State Finance Minister Shehan Semasinghe raised the US funding made available to those who had been opposed to Mahinda Rajapaksa at the 2015 presidential election.

In spite of a high profile US statement Sri Lanka never took any notice. The Election Commission never even acknowledged the issue at hand.

The second Pathfinder policy document that had been presented to presidential contestants blatantly promoted the overall Indian project here. That document comprehensively dealt with five key aspects namely (i) maritime (ii) air (iii) energy and power (iv) trade, economic and financial and (v) land connectivity meant to transform Indo-Lanka relationship to a new level. Pathfinder foundation discussed the developing situation against the backdrop of President Wickremesinghe’s meeting with Indian leader Narendra Modi in New Delhi on July 21, 2023.

Let me stress that ‘Bridging Borders: Enhancing Connectivity between India and Sri Lanka’ is not a secret document but one that can be accessed at (https://pathfinderfoundation.org/images/publications/policy%20papers%20and%20reports/2024/indo%20-%20lanka%20connectivity%20-%20breif%20report.pdf). It gives the reader a clear understanding of what is happening on the ground and status of discussions regarding these projects.

Security factors, concerns

Even ordinary people have expressed serious fears of an outbreak of violence over the coming weekend. The SLPP backing President Ranil Wickremesinghe as well as the SJB have accused the JJB of premeditated violence. The JJB has categorically denied these accusations whereas Kumar Gunaratnam, the General Secretary of the Frontline Socialist Party aka Peratugaami Pakshaya and former military wing member of the JVP has publicly defended their decision to take up arms in 1987, after they were driven underground by the JRJ regime.

The armed forces and police pathetically failed to prevent overthrowing of a democratically elected President with an overwhelming majority in July 2020. Their failure should be discussed taking into consideration extremely serious accusations directed at the military top brass by no less a person than ousted President Gotabaya Rajapaksa. The armed forces pathetically failed on May 09/10, 2022 and July 09, 2022, as organized gangs systematically torched properties of SLPP parliamentarians and sometimes those of their close supporters and relatives in many parts of the country with meticulous intelligence, including in the Colombo district.

It would be the responsibility of the armed forces and police to swiftly and decisively tackle any unforeseen post-election situation/development. There cannot be another countrywide security crisis again. The armed forces and police top brass should be directly held responsible for maintaining law and order as the possibility of interested parties resorting to violence cannot be ruled out.

It would be a grave mistake on the part of the National Security Council (NSC), chaired by President Wickremesinghe, who is also the Commander-in-Chief of the armed forces and the Minister in charge of Defence, not to have a specific plan to deal with any eventuality. One might say that such a plan is inevitable and concerns raised by the writer irrelevant. Then, the country needs a clear explanation as to why such a contingency plan hadn’t been implemented especially after mobs caused countrywide destruction on May 09/10, 2020.

The Gotabaya Rajapaksa government mishandled the Rambukkana incident where one person died when police opened fire to prevent a mob from setting fire to a bowser carrying petrol on April 19. 2022. The police arrested the senior officer in charge of the area SSP K.B. Keerthiratne along with three other police personnel for doing their job. That government move sent the wrong signal and the total collapse of the law and order situation in the second week of May, 2022 and again in July, 2022 cannot be discussed without examining the Rambukkana incident.

Shamindra Ferdinando is a Deputy Editor of a Colombo-based daily newspaper, The Island

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