There will likely be a new tropical storm soon, and its name will be Sara.
The National Hurricane Center on Wednesday designated a tropical disturbance in the western Caribbean as Potential Tropical Cyclone 19 and began issuing advisories and track maps on it.
The hurricane center calls storms “potential tropical cyclones” when they are not organized enough to be considered named storms but could bring some of those same hazards to land areas.
In this case, it would be Central America. The hurricane center warned that “life-threatening flash flooding” will be possible in Honduras later this week and over the weekend. Rainfall amounts of 20 inches won’t be out of the question there depending on the storm’s track.
It’s too soon to say if the potential Sara could eventually be a problem for the United States. However, the hurricane center’s official track map shows the storm meandering in the western Caribbean through Sunday and possibly making landfall as a tropical storm in Belize on Monday.
Some longer-range forecast models suggest the storm, if it doesn’t stay over land, could make it into the Gulf of Mexico and then, possibly, turn toward Florida. But that track only speculation at this point.
As of 6 p.m. CST Wednesday, Potential Tropical Cyclone 19 was located about 260 miles east-northeast of Cabo Gracias a Dios on the Nicaragua-Honduras border and was moving to the west at 6 mph.
The storm had winds of 30 mph. It would need a defined surface circulation and winds of at least 39 mph to be classified as Tropical Storm Sara.
The hurricane center said the system could become a tropical storm on Thursday and continue strengthening, if it remains over water.
There’s a chance it could become Hurricane Sara. The intensity forecast hinges on whether the system stays over water. It is expected to meander very close to the coast over the weekend.
The amount of rainfall the system could drop on Central America is significant. The hurricane center said 10 to 20 inches with isolated storm totals around 30 inches are expected over northern Honduras through early next week.
“This rainfall will lead to widespread areas of life-threatening and potentially catastrophic flash flooding and mudslides,” forecasters said.
The storm could also bring 5 to 10 inches of rain with localized totals around 15 inches to the rest of Honduras as well as Belize, El Salvador, eastern Guatemala and western Nicaragua.
Hurricane and tropical storm watches have been issued for Central America:
* A Hurricane Watch is in effect from Punta Castilla to the Honduras/Nicaragua border.
* A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect from the Honduras/Nicaragua border to Puerto Cabezas.
The Atlantic hurricane season is near its end but still has a few weeks to go. The last official day will be Nov. 30.
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Publish date : 2024-11-13 11:27:00
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