Wia dis foto come from, Getty Images
Wetin we call dis foto, Call to remove plenty migrants from US na di major point for Trump campaign eventsArticle informationAuthor, By Bernd Debusmann Jr, Mike Wendling & Valentina Oropeza Role, BBC
51 minutes wey don pass
Nora, 47, anxious no be small on election night as e dey become clear and clear say Donald Trump go win.
Despite say she don live for US for 24 years and get two daughters wey be US citizens – Christell, 30, and Leah, 19 – she still dey undocumented afta she land United States from Nicaragua afta one devastating hurricane.
“Sleep disappear, I bin no fit sleep. Di fear don come back again,” she tell BBC, as she tok say make we hide her identity sake of her immigration status.
Now wit Donald Trump return to White House, Nora dey fear say im go fulfil im campaign pledge to deport millions of immigrants wey dey live for US witout permission.
“We go get di largest deportation for di history of our kontri,” Trump tok for one recent news conference.
Wia dis foto come from, Courtesy of Christell and Leah
Wetin we call dis foto, Nora daughters, both of dem na US citizens and dem vote for di first time in presidential elections
Trump vice-president-elect, JD Vance, add some detail for one recent interview wit ABC News: “Make we begin wit one million… and den we go fit go from dia.”
However, experts warn say dat kain massive operation go face serious legal and logistical obstacles.
How many undocumented immigrants dey US?
Di latest Department of Homeland Security and Pew Research data show say as of 2022, around 11 million undocumented immigrants dey for US – around 3.3% of di population.
Di number don remain relatively stable since 2005, although Pew don draw ear say some kain factors still fit no dey show for di official data, like di 500,000 migrants wey dem give humanitarian permits from Cuba, Venezuela, Haiti, and Nicaragua.
Most undocumented immigrants na long-term residents – nearly 80% don dey di kontri for more dan ten years – and almost half na from Mexico, followed by Guatemala, El Salvador, and Honduras.
Dem concentrate for six states: California, Texas, Florida, New York, New Jersey, and Illinois.
Legal challenges
Undocumented immigrants get right to due process, including court hearing bifor dem remove dem. One drastic increase for deportations go require one major expansion of di already backlogged immigration court system.
No be through direct encounters wit Immigration and Customs Enforcement (Ice) agents most immigrants dey enta di deportation system, but through local security agents.
However, many of US biggest cities and counties get laws wey restrict local police from cooperating wit Ice.
Trump campaign bin pledge say e go take action against dis “sanctuary cities”, but di kontri complicated local, state, and federal laws dey complicate di situation.
Kathleen Bush-Joseph, one policy analyst for di think-tank Migration Policy Institute (MPI), emphasise say cooperation between Ice and local authorities go dey “critical” for any mass deportation plan.
“E dey much easier for Ice to pick someone up from prison if local law security agency cooperate, instead of to dey look for dem up and down,” she tok.
But Madam Bush-Joseph say many no go gree cooperate wit Trump mass deportation plan, sake of one declaration from di sheriff offices for Florida Broward and Palm Beach counties wey say dem no go send dia deputies to help.
Any mass deportation plan fit automatically face immediate legal challenges from immigration and human rights advocates.
One 2022 Supreme Court ruling, however, permit immigration enforcement to continue even if courts dey review legal challenges.
Logistical challenges
Wia dis foto come from, Getty Images
Wetin we call dis foto, Plenty pipo cross from Mexico enta US for di end of 2023, but di number don fall four-year low since
Even if e get any US administration wey fit to legally move ahead wit dis kain plans, authorities gatz face plenty logistical challenges, both for di border and inside di US.
Under di Biden administration, deportations bin focus on migrants wey dem recently detain for border, while deportations from inside US remain below 100,000 per year for di last 10 years, afta e bin skyrocket to over 230,000 early for Obama administration.
“Raising dat to one million inside one single year go require dem to pump plenty of resources wey fit no dey exist,” Aaron Reichlin-Melnick, policy director for American Immigration Council, one pro-immigration advocacy group, tok.
Experts dey doubt say Ice current 20,000 agents and staff go fit to track down even small amount of di number wey Trump campaign dey expect.
Reichlin-Melnick add say di deportation process dey long and complicated and go only fit begin wit di identification and arrest of undocumented migrant.
Afta dat, dem need to put detainees for “alternative to detention” programme bifor dem land bifor immigration judge, for system wey get one year waiting list.
Na only dat time dem go fit remove di detainees from US, process wey go require diplomatic co-operation from di receiving kontri.
“For each of dis areas, Ice no just get di capacity to process millions of pipo,” Reichlin-Melnick tok.
Trump bin suggest say im go involve di National Guard or oda military forces for di deportations.
But historically, di work of US military for immigration mata dey limited to support wey dem dey give for di US-Mexico border and Trump don give few details on how im wan take execute dat kain plan.
For one interview wit Time magazine earlier dis year, Trump mention somtin about building new migrant detention facilities, and giving police immunity from prosecution and even incentives to cooperate.
Eric Ruark, research director for NumbersUSA wey dey advocates for stricter immigration controls, stress di importance of stronger border enforcement.
“Dis gatz be di priority. You go make veri small progress for di interior if dat no be di case,” im tok. “Dat na wetin still dey make pipo dey show up.”
But im also emphasise di need for stricter action against companies wey dey hire undocumented workers.
“Dem dey come for jobs,” e tok. “And dem dey get dis jobs becos interior enforcement don basically scata.”
Financial and political costs
Wia dis foto come from, Getty Images
Experts dey estimate say di cost of deporting one million or more pipo fit enta tens or even hundreds of billions of dollars.
Ice budget for transportation and deportation for 2023 bin be $420m. For dat year di agency bin deport about 140,000 pipo.
Building detention centres and expanding removal flights go also require ogbonge investment – tens or hundreds of millions of dollars, according to Reichlin-Melnick.
Trump oda border enforcement promises – completing di southern border wall, naval blockade to stop fentanyl, and deploying thousands of troops – go also compete for resources.
Adam Isacson, wey be migration and border expert from Washington Office on Latin America, say “nightmarish images” of mass deportations fit also cost Trump administration from di point of public relations.
“Evri community for US go see as dem dey put pipo wey dem sabi and love inside buses,” im warn. “You go get some veri painful images on TV of crying children and families. All of dat na veri serious bad publicity. Na family separation, but on steroids.”
Mass deportations don happun bifor?
During di four years of Trump first term, about 1.5 million pipo na im dem deport and Biden administration dey on track to match dis number.
During Obama two terms, more dan three million pipo na im dem deport. Dis one give am di nickname “deporter-in-chief” among some immigration reform advocates.
But maybe di closest historical example of mass deportation happun for 1954, wen dem deport up to 1.3 million pipo for Operation Wetback, wey dem name afta one derogatory slur wey bin dey wey dem bin dey mostly use against Mexico pipo.
Dis programme bin face public opposition – partly becos dem bin also deport some US citizens – and funding issues. E mostly end by 1955.
However, immigration experts say dis operation no dey directly comparable to modern deportation efforts, as e bin lack due process and mainly target single men from Mexico, instead of families wey come from distant kontris.
Difficult decision
For Nora, returning to her native Nicaragua na frightening vision.
“For dis 24 years wey I don dey US, working and paying taxes, e bin no get any oda way for me to change my status,” Nora tok. “E hard to tink about going back to Nicaragua.”
Her daughters, wey vote for US elections for di first time, say dem go follow her leave if necessary.
“We go do whatever e take for my mum,” Leah tok.
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Publish date : 2024-11-07 11:00:00
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