A Border Patrol officer sits inside his car as he guards the US/Mexico border fence, in Nogales, … [+] Arizona. Illegal immigration from Cuba, Haiti, Nicaragua and Venezuela, the four countries viewed until recently as among the most problematic for illegal entry, plummeted by 98% over the last two years. (Photo by ARIANA DREHSLER/AFP via Getty Images)
AFP via Getty Images
Illegal immigration from the four countries viewed until recently as the most problematic plummeted by 98% over the last two years. The recently released Border Patrol immigration data show a stunning reversal for Cuba, Haiti, Nicaragua and Venezuela. Analysts credit the Biden administration’s use of legal pathways, a June 2024 executive order on asylum policy and greater cooperation with Mexico for the significant decline at the border. Illegal entry is lower today than when Donald Trump left office, a fact neither side mentions on the campaign trail.
The Latest Illegal Immigration Numbers
If you watch Donald Trump’s rallies, you would never know that in September 2024, Border Patrol encounters at the Southwest border declined to 53,858, a figure well below the 75,316 encounters in January 2021 when Trump was president. Encounters have remained under the 60,000 level each month starting in July 2024. Border Patrol encounters were higher in January 2021 than September 2024, even though the ongoing Covid-19 pandemic made the economy sluggish during Trump’s last month. (In general, the fewer encounters, the less illegal entry.)
Most Americans are unaware of how much illegal immigration has fallen, particularly from the four countries that gained the most attention in 2022. In December 2022, the Border Patrol apprehended at the Southwest border 24,764 Venezuelans, 15,280 Nicaraguans, 7,960 Cubans, and 1,392 Haitians, adding up to 49,396 encounters from the four countries.
By September 2024, Border Patrol encounters had declined by 98% for people from Venezuela, Nicaragua, Cuba and Haiti, falling to 1,003. The Biden administration’s decision to establish humanitarian parole programs proved decisive. By allowing 30,000 individuals from the four countries to enter monthly and obtain work authorization, Biden officials created a legal pathway and gained cooperation from the Mexican government to accept a similar number of expelled persons from Venezuela, Nicaragua, Cuba and Haiti. Expelling people from these four nations to their home countries can be challenging or even impossible.
According to a National Foundation for American Policy analysis, Border Patrol encounters declined by 92% for Cubans, Haitians and Nicaraguans between December 2022 (the month before the parole programs started) and November 2023 while increasing by 18% for individuals from non-parole countries.
The numbers show a similar pattern over a more extended period. Border Patrol encounters for people from countries without the humanitarian parole program fell by 56% between December 2022 and September 2024. That is much less than the 98% drop during the same period for Cubans, Haitians, Nicaraguans and Venezuelans, who had access to the lawful entry offered by the humanitarian parole program.
Once Haitians could enter lawfully by receiving waivers at ports of entry, their migration patterns changed. According to refugee groups, the waivers contributed to significant declines in Haitians attempting to cross the border illegally. Border Patrol encounters dropped from 7,762 in May 2022 to 145 in June 2022, illustrating an immediate impact. Yael Schacher of Refugees International said a D.C. Circuit Court ruling in June 2022 declared families could not be expelled without a screening, contributing to the increased use of waivers.
Analysts note the exceptions to Title 42 expulsion authority and the ability to use the CBP One app helped reduce unlawful migration from Haiti. “What this says is that legal pathways can work better than deterrence,” said Tom Cartwright of Witness at the Border.
Trump’s Illegal Immigration Policies Unlikely To Be Effective
If Donald Trump wins the presidential election, one should expect policies similar to those of when he last occupied the White House. His policies will focus on enforcement, including his promise to hire 10,000 more Border Patrol agents. A separate matter is what observers consider a potentially brutal policy to deport millions of longtime residents living in the United States without legal status.
Former U.S. President and Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump speaking during a rally in … [+] Doral, Florida, on July 9, 2024. Many of the speeches at his rallies focus on illegal immigration. (Photo by GIORGIO VIERA/AFP via Getty Images)
AFP via Getty Images
According to an NFAP analysis of historical data, relying on government spending on immigration enforcement has not worked to reduce illegal immigration: “Research shows an overall lack of a correlation between illegal entry and the number of Border Patrol agents and immigration enforcement spending. The analysis finds using work visas and humanitarian legal pathways are more effective and humane ways to reduce the number of people who enter the U.S. unlawfully.”
In the 1990s, the increase in Border Patrol agents and the strategy change to deterrence pushed immigrants to cross into more dangerous areas. As a result, more workers remained in the United States rather than risk their lives traveling back and forth across the U.S.-Mexico border. There was an unintended consequence. According to the Department of Homeland Security, the unauthorized immigrant population in the United States rose from 3.5 million to 11.8 million between 1990 and 2007.
Many people have criticized the Biden administration for the number of people who came to the U.S. border fleeing political and economic crises in Venezuela and elsewhere in Latin America. However, until May 2023, the Biden administration maintained the Trump administration’s Covid-era Title 42 policy that typically permitted border personnel to expel people who crossed the border without allowing an asylum claim.
An NFAP analysis found that despite critics asserting Joe Biden had an “open borders” policy, the Biden administration expelled 2,518,215 people using Title 42 authority, compared to 442,693 expelled with Title 42 under Trump. The greater use of Title 42 during the Biden years is partly due to how long the Biden administration maintained the policy.
When Donald Trump was president, his administration could not stop Central Americans and others from coming to the United States, with many fleeing severe problems in their home countries. Under Trump, Border Patrol apprehensions at the Southwest border increased by over 100% between FY 2016 and FY 2019 (from 408,870 to 851,508). When the Covid-19 pandemic began, Border Patrol encounters on the Southwest border fell, but rose by more than 300%, from 16,182 in April 2020 to 69,032 by October 2020.
Donald Trump will make it more difficult to control illegal immigration if he follows through on ending the humanitarian parole program and stops the use of the CBP One app that allows individuals to receive an appointment at a port of entry. If there is no way to enter legally and apply for asylum or obtain work, many people may choose to take their chances by crossing illegally.
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Publish date : 2024-10-25 01:54:00
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