A cargo ship traverses the Agua Clara locks of the Panama Canal in Colón, Panama, Sept. 2, 2024.
How could this play out?
Dr. Beckley, Dr. Paal, and Robert Ross, a professor of political science at Boston College and expert on Chinese security policy and U.S.-China relations, all see Mr. Trump’s desire to reclaim the Panama Canal as showmanship.
“Frankly, I think a lot of this is [Mr. Trump] just chauvinistically throwing around American power and showing off American primacy,” says Dr. Beckley. It seems to be more of a public relations move than a geopolitical one.
The U.S. does have leverage to pressure Panama, as its large share of shipping provided most of the $2.5 billion the canal made for the Panamanian government in 2023, on top of trade relations and $3.8 billion of U.S. investment annually into industries like energy and infrastructure.
Panama’s President Mulino has stressed that sovereignty over the canal is not up for debate. But after talks with Mr. Rubio Feb. 2, he outlined the possibility of repatriating more migrants and signaled he would review agreements involving China and Chinese businesses.
Dr. Paal also believes that Mr. Trump’s focus will shift away from Panama, as issues in the Middle East and Asia might take precedence.
The use of military force is also largely out of the question, according to Dr. Ross. “There’s just no Chinese security presence there that could diminish American access to the canal,” he says. At the end of the day, he says, the U.S. simply has a formidable navy that is closer to the canal, preventing any serious challenge to that access.
Additionally, Mr. Trump has said he wants to end wars in Ukraine and the Middle East, and has threatened to leave NATO. If Mr. Trump really wanted to emphasize bringing American troops home, Dr. Ross says, an occupation of Panama would be a complete U-turn.
Even if the U.S. invaded, Dr. Paal says, “China [could] say ‘Taiwan belongs to us, and we’re taking it back, too.’ And we would be so busy with our fleet in the Panama canal area, we would already have too few ships to protect Taiwan.”
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Publish date : 2025-02-04 21:01:00
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