With three points a must for Brazil, our betting expert believes the level of play will be ratcheted up a notch and Paraguay will feel the brunt force of it. Find out why below.
Jun 27, 2024 • 19:13 ET
• 4 min read
This Friday we have Paraguay vs Brazil in Group D action at Copa America.
With both teams in search of their first win, the pressure falls squarely on Brazil’s shoulders and anything other than a win would be a disaster. Given the amount of talent on the pitch, and the Copa America odds, our Paraguay vs. Brazil predictions only see one possible outcome.
Paraguay vs Brazil picks, predictions, and betting tips
My best bet:
Brazil -1.5 (-109 at Betano)
My analysis
Group D of this year’s Copa America is currently looking tight. Brazil, despite being one of the favorites for the competition sit second, sharing a point alongside Costa Rica, with Colombia already two points clear of them, with pointless Paraguay bottom.
It was expected that Brazil would start this competition well, especially against Costa Rica, who are on paper the weakest team in the group. That was the case though and their game earlier in the week finished tied 0-0. In many ways that should spell trouble now that they face Paraguay, because despite Friday’s opponents losing to Colombia in their opener, it was close. A narrow 2-1 loss to Colombia probably tells us that this Paraguay team is better than perhaps was expected, so should we be worried about Brazil? The short answer is no and that’s why we’re backing Brazil -1.5 on the Asian Handicap at odds of -109, which if you don’t regularly bet on the Asian Handicap means that we need Dorival Junior’s team to win by two or more goals.
A look at the scoreline of their goalless draw with Costa Rica instantly sends shivers down the spine but if you watched the game and studied the numbers, then it isn’t quite such bad reading. Brazil were blunt in attack that night and not even the addition of Savio, Gabriel Martinelli, or the young prodigy Endrick, could fix that.
They dominated the game in nearly every facet besides the most important one, goals. They have 74% possession and played nearly three times as many passes as Costa Rica. Not only that but they limited the Costa Ricans to just two shots inside 90 minutes, neither of which were on target. The issue was that despite having 19 shots, they had just three on target, of which none went in.
They had one disallowed with VAR but generally didn’t do enough when they had the ball. Rodrygo had six shots without a single one hitting the target, and Lucas Paqueta had five without one on target. The talent is there in this squad and given that they created so many opportunities it’s only a matter of time until the Selecao get going. Against a good but not great Paraguay team it’s their time and they should win this by two goals at least.
Vinicius Junior odds, prop for today
My best bet
Anytime goal (-163 at Betano)
My analysis
It’s fair to say that Vinicius Junior was the biggest disappointment in Brazil’s draw with Costa Rica. After the season that he’s had for Real Madrid, in particular the last six months in which he’s arguably been the best player on the planet, we expected more.
He scored 18 club goals since the turn of the year but managed just two shots on target in the last game, failing to find the target with either one. He was playing down the middle with Raphinha, Lucas Paqueta, and Rodrygo operating behind and around him. That doesn’t play to his strengths and we’re likely to see a tactical tweak, if not personnel changes, in the attack, to get him on the ball where he’s at his most dangerous.
Given what we’ve seen from him this season it won’t take much to find him creating chances again and that should come on Friday, where we’ll be backing him to score.
Paraguay vs Brazil same-game parlay (SGP)
Brazil -1
Vinicius Junior anytime goal
Both teams to score – No
Our best bet for the game isn’t available to add to Same Game Parlays, so we’ll take the regular -1 handicap, as well as our best Vinicius Junior prop, to create the first two legs of our SGP.
In addition to that, we’ll back Both Teams to Score – No. The Paraguay attack did well against Colombia but that was in part down to how the Colombians attacked them. Brazil are both more talented in the defensive positions and potentially even more pragmatic, which should limit their chances to score, just as they managed to hold Costa Rica to just two shots all game.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Paraguay vs Brazil odds
Paraguay
Brazil
+950
Moneyline
-294
Over 2.5 (-125)
Total
Under 2.5 (+102)
+375
Draw
+375
Odds courtesy of Betano on 6-27
Paraguay vs Brazil game info
Location:
Allegiant Stadium, Paradise, NV
Date:
Friday, June 28, 2024
Time:
9:00 p.m. ET
Not intended for use in MA.
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Publish date : 2024-06-27 19:13:00
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