In this occasional series of dispatches and commentaries, JURIST staff and correspondents from around the world reflect on the implications of Donald Trump’s US election victory and some of its likely implications for their regions. In this dispatch, Maria Paz Rodriguez, JURIST’s Chief of Staff for South America, offers some thoughts on what Trump’s victory may mean for Latin America. She filed this dispatch from Lima, Peru, just before US President-elect Trump threatened to impose a 25% tariff on all goods imported to the US from Mexico at the beginning of his term in January.
The recent election of Donald Trump to the presidency of the United States has significant implications for Latin America. One of the most surprising outcomes of this election was the strong support he received from Latino voters, a demographic that has historically leaned toward the Democratic Party. Trump’s appeal to Latino voters, particularly young men in key states, marked a pivotal shift in the political landscape.
The effects of his victory on Latin America are likely to unfold across multiple areas, including migration, trade, governance, and diplomatic relations. This analysis highlights key topics of concern and their potential impact on the region.
Migration policies. One of the most immediate effects of Trump’s presidency will be felt in migration policies. His plans for mass deportations and stricter immigration controls threaten to disrupt the lives of millions of undocumented immigrants, many of whom are from Latin America. The proposed use of military resources for deportations has already sparked widespread concern. This hardline stance is likely to exacerbate the humanitarian crisis in countries of origin, straining families and communities across borders.
Governance and democracy. Trump’s influence extends beyond the United States, as seen in its echoes within Latin American political discourse. In Peru, for example, the 2021 elections sparked debates about an Andean Trumpism, reflecting the spread of populist rhetoric. The elections were marred by claims of fraud from Keiko Fujimori, the losing candidate, who refused to recognize Pedro Castillo’s victory. This rejection of election results drew comparisons to Trump’s refusal to concede the 2020 U.S. presidential election, raising concerns about the erosion of trust in democratic processes.
As the region approaches a new wave of elections —Uruguay (2024), Argentina (2025), Peru and Brazil (2026)— the potential influence of Trump’s return to power looms large. His victory may embolden candidates to adopt similar populist and anti-establishment strategies, further polarizing political landscapes.
Venezuela, Argentina, and Mexico – key players in Trump’s Latin American agenda. In Venezuela, Nicolás Maduro, despite his strained relationship with Trump during the latter’s first term, has signaled openness to a new beginning in U.S.-Venezuela relations. Experts suggest this could follow a path similar to Trump’s unconventional diplomacy with North Korea, which moved from confrontation to tentative dialogue. However, skepticism remains high, given Trump’s historically uncompromising stance toward the Venezuelan government.
In Argentina, the election of Javier Milei has further highlighted the growing influence of populist, polarizing leaders in Latin America. Milei’s rhetoric and policies closely parallel Trump’s, underscoring how Trump’s return to power could serve as validation for such disruptive governance styles.
Meanwhile, Mexico faces its own challenges under Trump’s presidency. Analysts warn that “Trump 2.0” could be far more dangerous for Mexico than his first presidency, especially under Claudia Sheinbaum’s incoming administration. Trump’s past actions, such as leveraging tariffs to coerce Mexico into stricter immigration controls, have set a troubling precedent.
Trade and tariffs. Last but not least, trade policies under the Trump administration are expected to take a protectionist turn, with significant repercussions for Latin American economies. For instance, during the recent APEC summit in Peru, Mauricio Claver-Carone, a senior advisor in Trump’s transition team, proposed a 60% tariff on goods transiting through the newly inaugurated megaport of Chancay north of Lima which has been largely funded by China. This policy could severely impact Peru’s export-driven economy and strain its trade relationship with the United States. Similarly, Brazil, with its highly interconnected economy, might face similar challenges.
Opinions expressed in JURIST Dispatches are solely those of our correspondents in the field and do not necessarily reflect the views of JURIST’s editors, staff, donors or the University of Pittsburgh.
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Publish date : 2024-11-26 01:13:00
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