Cuba will lose almost half of its population before the end of the century, according to a study

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Cuba will lose almost half of its population before the end of the century, according to the report "Ibero-America: from Major Population Growth to a Demographic Winter," ("Iberoameríca: de grandes crecimientos poblacionales al invierno demográfico") presented Thursday by the Universidad CEU San Pablo in Madrid.

"Puerto Rico (-69%) and Cuba (-49%) could see dramatic reductions" in population by 2050, two countries where "emigration has contributed significantly to aging," warns the study, which uses UN data.

This means that it may not take into account the nearly 700,000 entries of Cubans into the U.S. between October 2021 and September 2024, according to the U.S. Customs and Border Protection Authority, nor recent data on Cuban emigration to Spain, Mexico and other countries. Havana only recognizes, in 2023, a 10.1% decrease in "population with effective residence in Cuba" compared to 2020. Alejandro Macarrón, head of Studies and Social Analysis at CEU San Pablo, told DIARIO DE CUBA that the island's population is "very aged due to the drop in the birthrate and its loss of young people."

"Those who have left, logically, are mostly young people, which leaves an older population. Cuba has had more deaths than births for years now. It takes approximately 2.1 children per woman to produce what we call population replacement or generational replacement, and Cuba is well below the threshold," the expert explained.

In fact, according to Macarrón, in the U.S. "Cuban-Americans have a fertility rate well below that of other Hispanic communities." La Universidad CEU San Pablo report notes the "declining fertility rate" in Ibero-American countries, "already insufficient for population replacement in many countries of the region."

"If the number of births and fertility continue to fall at the rate projected by the UN, as of the middle of the current century Ibero-America will have a severe aging problem, like the one that is already sapping Spain and Europe. This problem will reach Puerto Rico, Cuba, Uruguay, Chile, Argentina and Costa Rica first, and in some cases it already has," the document adds.

The study analyzes the situation of Venezuela, "a singular and dramatic case in the demography of Ibero-America in the last 20 years", with a negative migratory balance of 5.04 million people, according to UN data.

"In addition, life expectancy in Venezuela has shown a negative trend in recent years, a unique case in the region and extremely rare in the world. Along the same line, infant mortality has increased," it indicates.

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