Puerto Rican voters could deliver Donald Trump an unwelcome ‘October surprise’

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As it moves into the final week, the US election campaign remains so tight that most commentators are calling it a toss-up. But Donald Trump’s campaign may have just dealt itself its own “October surprise” – something no candidate for the US president wants as it stands for a last-minute disaster.

At his much anticipated “closing argument” rally at Madison Square Garden in New York City on October 27, various warm-up speakers engaged in strong, dark rhetoric about the state of the nation that laid the ground for Trump to take the stage and assert his position as the “protector”,“fixer”, and “liberator” of what he and his support base like to think of as an “occupied” country.

But the tone and content of the event was problematic from the start. Comedian Tony Hinchcliffe made opening remarks in which he described Puerto Rico as an “island of garbage”.

Deep offence at these remarks rippled across America’s Puerto Rican community and beyond. His slur on Puerto Rico drew condemnation across the political spectrum and mobilised a rash of new endorsements for the Harris-Walz campaign. The incident has raised the prospect of a Puerto Rican backlash that could well have an impact on the outcome of the election.

Tony Hinchcliffe: an October surprise?

Causing such deep offence to a significant minority population at a crucial moment in the campaign could have real consequences. Ultimately, the outcome of the election is determined by electoral college votes. These, in the end, will rely heavily on tallies across seven swing states: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Caroline, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

The outcome of the 2016 and 2020 elections, although the Democrats received far more votes than the Republicans in total (3 million and 7 million, respectively), came down to very close margins across these swing states. In 2020, Joe Biden won the electoral college vote across these seven states – but with an average of less than half a percentage point (0.47%).

Why Puerto Rico matters

Puerto Rico is what is known as an “unincorporated territory” of the United States. Since it is not a state, it does not have any electoral college votes. But Puerto Ricans are citizens of the United States – a status they have enjoyed since 1917 – and can move freely between Puerto Rico and the mainland.

Those who reside in Puerto Rico may not vote in federal elections, but those who do live in the United States are eligible to vote in the states where they are registered.

Historically Puerto Ricans have been more likely to support the Democrats. But their turnout has been in consistent in the past. And both campaigns have made special effort to target this group. If enough people take offence at Hinchcliffe’s remarks, this could have a significant impact on the election result.

Millions of Puerto Ricans have made successful lives and careers in the US. As of 2021, Puerto Ricans make up 2% of the US population (5.8 million, up from 4.7 million in 2010). Despite this relatively low percentage overall, it is the distribution of the Puerto Rican population that makes them important in the presidential election.

The table below shows the Puerto Rican population across swing states in 2024 as well as the number of electoral college votes that are up for grabs in each state and the winning vote margin for Joe Biden in 2020. The figures in the table are for the whole Puerto Rican population.

Puerto Rican population, electoral college votes, and margin of victory.

Across these seven swing states, it is clear that the distribution of Puerto Ricans is not insignificant. This is especially the case in the key state of Pennsylvania. The total number and proportion of Puerto Ricans living there is easily large enough to affect the marginal vote share needed to tip the state to one of the two main political parties, which has 19 electoral college votes.

It’s telling that the Harris-Walz campaign was in Pennsylvania actively courting Latino voters at the same time the rally was underway in New York. The rapid impact from the rally manifested in real time and included the endorsement of the Harris-Walz campaign from world-famous celebrities.

Shortly after the remarks at the rally, Bad Bunny, the world’s most-streamed musical artist on Spotify between 2020 and 2022, endorsed Harris, as did singer Ricky Martin and actress Jennifer Lopez, whose parents come from Puerto Rico.

Bad Bunny showed his support by resharing with his millions of social media followers a video of Harris speaking about Trump’s response to the devastating hurricanes Irma and Maria that ravaged Puerto Rico in 2017. Ricky Martin posted “Esto es lo que piensan en nosotros” (This is what they think of us) with a tag of “vote for @kamalaharris”.

In a race where margins of victory are extremely thin, a small island country like Puerto Rico with its special status and mobile voters may just tip the scales in Harris’s direction.

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