Puerto Rico was outclassed in the second half against South Sudan, and Serbia is going to kick the Puerto Ricans when they’re down.
Jul 30, 2024 • 10:27 ET
• 4 min read
Coming off a tough loss to Team USA, Serbia has a chance to get back on track against a struggling Puerto Rico squad.
Serbia’s a 17.5-point favorite, thanks in part to having the best player on the planet in Nikola Jokic, and my Puerto Rico vs. Serbia predictions are trusting in Jokic to carry his country to a decisive win on July 31.
Puerto Rico vs Serbia prediction
My best bet
Serbia -17.5 (-105)
My analysis
Both Serbia and Puerto Rico are coming off blowout losses to start the Olympics. Nobody was surprised to see Serbia fall to Team USA by 26 points, but Puerto Rico losing by 11 to South Sudan was a different story.
Sure, South Sudan was a 1.5-point favorite, but Puerto Rico just completely lost steam in the second half. It was up 54-48 at halftime and proceeded to get outscored 42-25 in the final two frames.
That type of performance against a loaded Serbia squad will surely end in a 20-plus-point loss, especially if Jokic is at his best. Serbia entered the Olympics ranked fourth by the FIBA world rankings with Puerto Rico just 16th — and Serbia is less than a year removed from winning silver at the FIBA World Cup without Joker.
Serbia walloped Puerto Rico 94-77 at that tournament, so with Jokic, I’m expecting an even bigger win. Even in the loss to the USA, the experience of this Serbian team could be seen. Five players finished with double-digit points, including a 14-point showing from Bogdan Bogdanovic.
The 3-point shooting of Bogdanovic should be on full display against Puerto Rico after it gave up 10 treys to South Sudan. But obviously, the biggest mismatch will be Jokic, whose size and skill inside is impossible to stop even for the best NBA players.
With Jokic inside and several competent shooters surrounding him, the Puerto Ricans will be in a catch-22. Do they sell out to stop Jokic from dominating around the rim, or do they focus on shutting down his ability to always find the open shooter from the low post?
Regardless, they’re going to give up points to Serbia, and they’ll have a hard time keeping up based on how they looked against South Sudan (39% from the floor and 58% from the free-throw line).
Joker has the last laugh
My Nikola Jokic prop: Over 36.5 points + rebounds + assists (-115)
Coming off his third NBA MVP in the last four seasons, Jokic remains a cheat code with his size, skill, and scoring touch. There’s no way to defend him in the NBA, so how’s this Puerto Rican squad going to do it?
Puerto Rico’s defense already looked flimsy in the loss to South Sudan, giving up double-digit points to five different players and allowing the team to hit 47% from inside the arc. South Sudan also dominated Puerto Rico on the boards, with Gabriel Wenyen and JT Thor combining for 16 of them.
Jokic is a far tougher player to out rebound than those two. He’s also arguably the best passer at the Olympics and has trusted shooters surrounding him, which we saw in the loss to America. when he finished with eight apples.
Against a far superior Team USA squad, Jokic ended up with 33 points, rebounds, and assists on 53.3% shooting. Surpassing those numbers shouldn’t be too difficult against Puerto Rico.
Puerto Rico vs Serbia same-game parlay (SGP)
Serbia -17.5
Over 171.5
Jose Alvarado Over 19.5 points
It’s never easy to win a basketball game by 18+ points — especially in a tournament like this one— but Serbia’s a legit medal contender and Puerto Rico looked like one of the worst teams at the Olympics in that second half against South Sudan.
However, that doesn’t mean Puerto Rico will roll over and die. It should still be capable of scoring enough points to help this Over hit. The odds imply a 54.55% probability the Over will hit, and with a scorer like Jose Alvarado, Puerto Rico should put up around 80 while allowing 98 or more.
Alvarado was the bright spot for Puerto Rico in the loss to South Sudan. He finished with 26 points on 56% shooting and is clearly the heart and soul of this roster.
The New Orleans Pelicans guard will likely see 30+ minutes for the second straight game, and his usage will be the key to him putting up Over 19.5 points. The offense runs through him, and that showed during the FIBA Olympic qualifiers when he put up 29 against Italy and 23 against Lithuania.
Serbia is a different animal, but Alvarado is essentially Puerto Rico’s Jokic, and for as wild as that sounds, it’s why he’s going to be among the top scorers at the Olympics.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Puerto Rico vs Serbia odds
Puerto Rico
Serbia
+1,300
Moneyline
-2,800
Over 172.5 (-110)
Total
Under 172.5 (-110)
+17.5 (-115)
Spread
-17.5 (-105)
Odds as of 7-30.
Puerto Rico vs Serbia game info
Location:
Pierre Mauroy Stadium, Villeneuve D’ascq, FR
Date:
Wednesday, 7-31-2024
Tip-off:
3:00 p.m. ET
TV:
Peacock
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Publish date : 2024-07-30 03:27:00
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