Estimate: COVID vaccines saved up to 2.6 million lives in Latin America, Caribbean

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COVID-19 vaccines saved about 610,000 to 2.61 million lives in 17 countries in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) in the first 1.5 years of vaccine availability, estimate researchers from Yale University, Brazil, and the Pan American Health Organization (PAHO).

For the observational study, published yesterday in Open Forum Infectious Diseases, the investigators used data on COVID-19 deaths and vaccine effectiveness (VE) and uptake to arrive at a counterfactual estimate of the number of unvaccinated adults saved through vaccination from January 2021 to May 2022.

"Despite the initial availability of COVID-19 vaccines across the region, wide inter- and intra-country variation in access and availability to vaccines were observed in the region," the researchers wrote.

Deaths averted varied by vaccine uptake, outbreak timing More than 1.49 million people died of COVID-19 in the studied countries over the study period, the researchers found after accounting for underreporting. Reported deaths over the same period numbered 1.05 million. Had there been no vaccine, 2.10 million to 4.11 million people likely would have died, the model estimated.

As a result, vaccines may have saved an estimated 610,000 (assuming low VE) to 2.62 million (assuming high VE) lives. In total, vaccines likely averted roughly 273 deaths per 100,000 people. A sensitivity analysis suggested that, if consideration was limited to COVID-19 deaths as reported with no assumed underreporting, vaccination may have averted 870,000 deaths.

The rate of averted deaths averted by country differed by vaccination uptake over time, particularly in those aged 60 and older, as well as whether COVID-19 outbreaks were seen primarily before or after vaccine rollout. "For instance, the model estimates that proportionally more deaths were averted in Chile and Uruguay, as there were spikes in deaths at a time when a lot of the population (especially those 60 and over) was vaccinated," the authors wrote.

Substantial impact of vaccination The researchers noted that their study didn't account for protection from previous COVID-19 infections against reinfection and severe illness or the effect of other public health measures such as lockdowns.

Despite the many challenges to COVID-19 vaccination in LAC... these findings underscore the underscore the substantial impact of timely and widespread vaccination in averting COVID-19 death.

"Despite the many challenges to COVID-19 vaccination in LAC—including timely access to vaccines, varying vaccine products and schedules, evolving circulating variants, and shifting vaccination strategies and target groups—these findings underscore the underscore the substantial impact of timely and widespread vaccination in averting COVID-19 death," the authors wrote.

"Future directions of this work include more in-depth analyses of countries with additional available data in order to assess differences in vaccine effectiveness by specific region or population group (including socio-economic status), and evaluation of potential alternative vaccination scenarios," they added.

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