Uruguay's once-dull election has become a dead heat in the presidential runoff

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MONTEVIDEO, Uruguay — Uruguayans will return to the polls on Sunday for a second round of voting to choose their next president, with the conservative governing party and the left-leaning coalition locked in a close runoff after failing to win an outright majority in last month's vote.

The election has turned into a hard-fought race between Álvaro Delgado, the incumbent party's candidate, and Yamandú Orsi from the Broad Front, a coalition of leftist and center-left parties that governed for 15 years until the 2019 victory of center-right President Luis Lacalle Pou. It oversaw the legalization of abortion, same-sex marriage and the sale of marijuana in the small South American nation.

Orsi's Broad Front took 44% of the vote while Delgado's National Party won just 27% in the first round of voting Oct. 27. But the other conservative parties that make up the government coalition — in particular, the Colorado Party — notched 20% of the vote collectively, enough to give Delgado an edge over his challenger this time around.

Congress ended up evenly split in the October vote. Most polls have shown a virtual tie between Delgado and Orsi, with nearly 10% of Uruguayan voters undecided even at this late stage.

Analysts say the candidates' lackluster campaigns and broad consensus on key issues have helped generate extraordinary voter indecision and apathy in an election dominated by discussions about taxes and social spending but largely free of the anti-establishment rage that has vaulted populist outsiders to power elsewhere.

“The question of whether Frente Amplio (the Broad Front) raises taxes is not an existential question, unlike what we saw in the U.S. with Trump and Kamala framing each other as threats to democracy," said Nicolás Saldías, a Latin America and Caribbean senior analyst for the London-based Economist Intelligence Unit. “That doesn't exist in Uruguay.”

Both candidates are also appealing to voter angst over a surge in violent crime that has shaken a nation long regarded as one of the region’s most safe and stable.

Supporters of Broad Front coalition presidential candidate Yamandu Orsi campaign one day ahead of the presidential run-off election, in Montevideo, Uruguay, Saturday, Nov. 23, 2024. Credit: AP/Natacha Pisarenko

Delgado, 55, a rural veterinarian with a long career in the National Party, campaigned on a vow to continue the legacy of current President Lacalle Pou — in some ways making the election into a referendum on his leadership. He campaigned under the slogan “re-elect a good government."

While a string of corruption scandals briefly tainted Lacalle Pou's government last year, the president — who constitutionally cannot run for a second consecutive term — now enjoys high approval ratings and a strong economy expected to grow 3.2% this year, according to the International Monetary Fund.

Delgado served most recently as Secretary of the Presidency for Lacalle Pou and promises to press on with his predecessor's pro-business, market-friendly policies. His coalition would likely continue pursuing a prospective trade deal with China that has raised hackles in Mercosur, an alliance of South American countries that promotes regional commerce.

Orsi, 57, a former history teacher and two-time mayor from a working-class background, is widely seen as an heir to iconic former President José “Pepe” Mujica, a former Marxist guerilla who boosted Uruguay's profile as one of the region's most socially liberal and environmentally sustainable nations during his 2010-2015 term.

<img alt="Frente Amplio presidential candidate Yamandu Orsi holds his closing rally..." loading="lazy" width="770" height="433.125" decoding="async" data-nimg="1" style="color:transparent" srcset="/_next/image?url=https%3A%2F%2Fcdn.newsday.com%2Fimage-service%2Fversion%2Fc%3AODkxODY1NjEtNjY3Yy00%3AZGQzMTdjODItYzAzNS00%2Furuguay-election.jpeg%3Ff%3DLandscape%2B16%253A9%26w%3D768%26q%3D1&w=828&q=80 1x, /_next/image?url=https%3A%2F%2Fcdn.newsday.com%2Fimage-service%2Fversion%2Fc%3AODkxODY1NjEtNjY3Yy00%3AZGQzMTdjODItYzAzNS00%2Furuguay-election.jpeg%3Ff%3DLandscape%2B16%253A9%26w%3D768%26q%3D1&w=1920&q=80 2x" src="http://www.bing.com/_next/image?url=https%3A%2F%2Fcdn.newsday.com%2Fimage-service%2Fversion%2Fc%3AODkxODY1NjEtNjY3Yy00%3AZGQzMTdjODItYzAzNS00%2Furuguay-election.jpeg%3Ff%3DLandscape%2B16%253A9%26w%3D768%26q%3D1&w=1920&q=80"/> Frente Amplio presidential candidate Yamandu Orsi holds his closing rally ahead of the presidential run-off election in Las Piedras, Uruguay, Wednesday, Nov. 20, 2024. Credit: AP/Matilde Campodonico

“He was born from ordinary workers," Mujica said in a closing campaign ad for Orsi. “He represents, precisely, the average type of what Uruguay is.”

Promising to forge a “new left” in Uruguay, Orsi has proposed tax incentives to lure investment and industrial policy to boost Uruguay’s critical agricultural sector.

He has also floated social security reforms that would buck the demographic trend in lowering the retirement age but fall short of a radical overhaul sought by Uruguay's unions.

The contentious plebiscite on whether to boost pension payouts failed to pass in October, with Uruguayans rejecting generous pensions in favor of fiscal constraint.

“This is a normal election, which is rare,” said Saldías. “It's indicative of Uruguay’s strength as a democracy.”

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