(Courtesy of CBB Analytics)
Marquette’s top returning player, and the one with the best shot to lead the Big East in scoring this season, took only 3 percent of his shots last season in the midrange. It’s a modern shot chart on steroids, the sort of exclusive layups-and-3s diet that analytics dreams are made of. It’s how a player who attempted more than 200 2-pointers and 200 3-pointers last season ends up with an effective field-goal percentage of 60.2, a top-75 rate nationally and a top-20 rate among high-major players. Even with Tyler Kolek, a two-time All-American and the New York Knicks’ backup point guard, and Oso Ighodaro, a two-time All-Big East selection and a second-round pick by the Phoenix Suns, on the roster, Jones led the Golden Eagles in offensive rating last season.
Just in case we haven’t made the point by now, per Will Warren, here are the college players who have posted an offensive rating higher than 115, a usage rate higher than 25 percent, an effective field-goal percent higher than 60 and a box plus/minus of more than six, while taking 200-plus 2s and 3s: Steph Curry, Jalen Brunson, Buddy Hield, Doug McDermott, Sears … and Jones. This isn’t to say Jones is destined for pro stardom, but that he’s one of the most efficient volume scorers college basketball has ever seen.
Will he maintain that efficiency without two of Marquette’s triplets from the past two seasons? We’ll see. But Marquette coach Shaka Smart already has seen a glimpse of Jones’ potential sans Kolek, and it’s a sweet picture. In the six games Kolek missed in March, Jones averaged 20.8 points, 4.7 rebounds and 4.5 assists per game, while shooting 45.7 percent from 3 on nearly six attempts per game.
Second TeamHunter Dickinson, graduate center, Kansas
This year’s “Wait, He’s Still In College?” Award goes to Dickinson, a two-time All-American. Last season, his first at KU after transferring in from Michigan, the 7-1, 255-pounder averaged a career-best 10.9 rebounds per game, along with 17.9 points. Not surprisingly, per BartTorvik, that aligned with Dickinson’s best season-long defensive rebounding rate and was key to him averaging a double-double for the first time in four years. But that personal improvement didn’t necessarily correlate to team success. The Jayhawks struggled with depth and injuries, and the season ended with a 21-point whupping by Gonzaga in the NCAA Tournament’s second round.
So Dickinson’s back, and given Bill Self returned his top six scorers and added three of The Athletic’s top-30 transfers, the preseason Big 12 Player of the Year is poised to have possibly his best college campaign. KU’s perimeter additions will be especially valuable, diverting attention (and bodies) from Dickinson. Dickinson missed Kansas’ exhibition vs. Arkansas last week with a sprained foot, but it’s not expected to impact the actual season.
Alex Karaban, junior forward, Connecticut
The lone returning starter from UConn’s back-to-back national championship teams, Karaban easily could be in the NBA, but he opted to run it back, only this time as the star. Can he make that leap? We’re betting on it (and on Dan Hurley to get him there).
The 6-8, 225-pound stretch forward was one of the nation’s most efficient offensive players last season. Per KenPom, he was 23rd in offensive rating, although only third-best among the Huskies, but that was as UConn’s fourth, and sometimes fifth, option. Being No. 1 on the scouting report is another level. But there are reasons for optimism, starting with Karaban’s career 38.9 percent mark from 3. That marksmanship gives him a high baseline for success, especially in Hurley’s modern, five-out offense. And, per Synergy, Karaban was in the 95th percentile or better as a cutter, a roll man out of pick-and-rolls and in offensive putback scenarios (he averaged better than 1.5 points per possession in all three categories). One of the most efficient players in the nation during the past two seasons, he knows what it takes to win at the highest level.
If UConn is going to be the first program since John Wooden’s UCLA dynasty to win three straight titles, Karaban will need to be the best version of himself.
As he said at Big East media days, “I really can be the winningest college basketball player of all time.”
Caleb Love, graduate guard, Arizona
What is Love’s college legacy going to be? The 6-4 guard has taken a strange, winding path. A former five-star prospect, he was projected as a one-and-done recruit, had a shaky freshman year, and then his Hall of Fame coach, Roy Williams, retired. Love responded by leading North Carolina to the national championship game as a sophomore, hitting one of the biggest shots in history to effectively end Mike Krzyzewski’s coaching career. He passed on the NBA for another title chance, only to become the face of the first preseason No. 1 team to miss the NCAA Tournament. He transferred to Arizona, where he was named the Pac-12 Player of the Year. And now, well, we’ll see.
What’s next for Caleb Love in his roller-coaster career? (Christian Petersen / Getty Images)
In his first season under Tommy Lloyd at Arizona, Love posted career highs in points per game (18.0), rebounds per game (4.8), field-goal percentage (41.3 percent) and perhaps most importantly, assist-to-turnover ratio (3.4-to-2.1). Love put together the most consistent defensive season of his career, averaging a career-low 1.4 fouls per 40 minutes, per KenPom (34th best nationally and eighth-best among high-major players) and holding opponents to 36.1 percent shooting as a primary defender, per Synergy. It was exactly the type of ironing out folks hoped to see from Love under Lloyd’s direction. That said, Love’s propensity for shooting his team out of games showed up at the worst time. Love went 0-for-9 from 3 in Arizona’s Sweet 16 loss to Clemson, only the third time all season he didn’t make a 3-pointer.
Love should show more growth in his second season with Lloyd, but can Arizona fully insulate itself from Love’s struggles? The answer could determine if the Wildcats flame out again or if they make their first Final Four since 2001.
Graham Ike, senior forward, Gonzaga
Blame the “East Coast bias” for Ike not getting the national attention he deserves. But as the centerpiece of another loaded, top-10 Zags squad, we cannot ignore the 6-9, 250-pound forward’s production or his development into arguably the best back-to-the-basket big in the country. Ike averaged 16.5 points and 7.4 rebounds per game last season, his first at Gonzaga after transferring from Wyoming, and was borderline unstoppable down low. Per CBB Analytics, he shot 57.3 percent in the paint — the Division I average was 41.1 percent — but was even more dominant at the rim, where he shot a staggering 75.5 percent. It’s no surprise then that, per Synergy, Ike was in the 92nd percentile in post-up scoring last season, averaging 1.115 points per possession. Mark Few’s team learned early to get the ball to the big fella down low and get out of the way.
As one of four starters back for Gonzaga, and one of two who will garner All-America consideration, along with point guard Ryan Nembhard, Ike doesn’t have to be a singular force. But considering how dominant he was inside, it would behoove Few to keep force-feeding his low-post threat. The Zags play No. 8 Baylor, No. 23 Kentucky, No. 3 UConn and No. 22 UCLA, giving Ike plenty of opportunity to emerge as one of the faces of this season.
Ryan Kalkbrenner, graduate center, Creighton
Only three players have been named the Big East Defensive Player of the Year three times: Patrick Ewing, Alonzo Mourning and Kalkbrenner. Kalkbrenner well could be the best defensive player in the country this season. His career-high 3.1 blocks per game last season were second nationally and tops among high-major players. He had almost twice as many games with four-plus blocks (15) as he did games with one or zero blocks (eight). That’s not even counting how many shots the 7-1, 270-pound center discourages from being attempted.
But as good as Kalkbrenner is defensively, he’s the Preseason Big East Player of the Year because he’s an all-around talent. He was ninth nationally in true shooting percentage last year, a slight dip from his first-place ranking the year before, per KenPom. He averaged a career-high 17.3 points per game, despite having Creighton’s third-highest usage rate. (That should improve this season.) Per Synergy, Kalkbrenner was in the 99th percentile in offensive putbacks and the 97th percentile of post-ups last season.
Kalkbrenner isn’t just huge; he’s huge and incredibly good. And he’s the biggest why Creighton is a threat to make its first Final Four trip after multiple years of knocking on the door.
Braden Smith, junior guard, Purdue
What will Purdue look like in a post-Edey world? The Boilermakers have Trey Kaufman-Renn ready to fill Edey’s position, but Smith will be Purdue’s driving force. Smith was productive as a sophomore with 12 points, 7.5 assists (the second-most nationally) and 5.8 rebounds per game, but he didn’t have to carry the team. Can Smith be as impactful when he’s not throwing a dozen entry passes a game to a two-time National Player of the Year?
The pessimistic view hinges on Smith’s lackluster NCAA Tournament performance. Even including his 14-point, 15-assist masterpiece against Gonzaga in the Sweet 16, Smith averaged nine points per game in March Madness, with his field-goal percentage dropping from his year-long rate of 44.1 percent to 36.4 percent. His 3-point shot also dipped. Smith gets the benefit of the doubt in his first true NCAA Tournament run. There’s still clear room for him to grow. For example: Smith was in the 98th percentile in midrange 2-point attempts last season, per CBB Analytics, despite making those shots at only a 37.5 percent clip. Move some of those back behind the arc — especially atop the key, where he made 43.3 percent of such 3s — and we’re talking about a much more efficient shot diet.
He’s already one of the nation’s best point guards, a quintessential set-up man who ranked in the top 75 in 3-point rate and in the top 12 in assist rate last season, per KenPom. And if Smith does have a similar leap left like the one he made between his freshman and sophomore seasons, the Boilermakers have as good a shot as anyone to win a wide-open Big Ten.
Others receiving votes: Hunter Sallis, Wake Forest (four second-team votes); Wade Taylor IV, Texas A&M (one first, one second); Ryan Nembhard, Gonzaga (three seconds); Kadary Richmond, St. John’s (two seconds); Johnell Davis, Arkansas; Norchad Omier, Baylor; Tyon Grant-Foster, Grand Canyon; Zakai Zeigler, Tennessee; Milan Momcilovic, Iowa State; L.J. Cryer, Houston (one second each)
(Top image: Dan Goldfarb / The Athletic; Photos: Lance King, Michael Hickey, C. Morgan Engel / NCAA Photos / Getty)
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Publish date : 2024-10-27 23:41:00
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