It’s harder than ever to know who could pop in any given men’s college basketball season. Sure, a few obvious stars headline The Athletic’s preseason All-America teams — players who have done it before, such as RJ Davis and Mark Sears — but plenty of other inclusions are dice rolls. We want to think we’ll hit on some of them amid unlimited transfers and de facto free agency … but there’s almost certainly an unknown star-in-the-making out there who we can’t see coming.
Like … Dalton Knecht. This time last year, Knecht was a former no-star junior college recruit, a nice player at Northern Colorado but hardly a national name. But after transferring from the Big Sky to Tennessee, he was named SEC Player of the Year while leading the Volunteers to the Elite Eight, then became the L.A. Lakers’ first-round pick.
So, who is this year’s Knecht? Can Davis and Sears — like Purdue’s Zach Edey last season — run back their previous season’s successes? We’re about to find out.
Our preseason teams represent a slight diversion, at least on-court, from college basketball’s recent infatuation with big men. Only four of the 11 players on our list (we had a three-way tie for the final two spots) are true bigs, compared with five lead guards. At least we have the experience thing down, with eight of our 11 picks seniors or graduates, plus two juniors.
First TeamMark Sears, graduate guard, Alabama
Is it possible that Sears, our lone unanimous selection, is still somehow being overlooked? Hypothesis: People know that Alabama scores the most in Division I (90.1 points per game last season) and therefore figure any key cog must be productive. But as potent as Nate Oats’ offensive system is, it needs the right conductor to reach full optimization. If Sears wasn’t that last season, he was close, averaging 21.5 points, 4.2 rebounds and 4 assists per game. He broke the single-season Alabama scoring record, and per Synergy, was the best spot-up shooter in the nation. (Sears made 43.6 percent of his 3-pointers on nearly six attempts per game, and on strictly spot-up scenarios, that percentage skyrockets to 57.1 percent.)
The thing is, Sears wasn’t just productive last season; he directly contributed to winning, leading Alabama to its only Final Four in program history while averaging 24.2 points, 5.2 rebounds, 3.6 assists and 1.4 steals per game in five NCAA Tournament contests. His 18 points vs. No. 1 North Carolina in the Sweet 16 marked the only time in Alabama’s final 10 games that he didn’t break the 20-point threshold, a barrier he hit 26 times in 37 games. For all of Alabama’s high-profile transfer portal additions and five-star high school signees, Sears is the biggest reason to believe Oats’ team can make it back to the first weekend in April.
Cooper Flagg, freshman forward, Duke
Duke has had two No. 1 recruits in its history (yes, only two, somehow) before Flagg: Marvin Bagley III in 2017 and RJ Barrett in 2018. Both were consensus All-Americans in their lone college seasons before becoming top-three NBA Draft picks. Flagg already seems to be a lock for the latter but easily could hit both benchmarks. The 17-year-old is the most-hyped high schooler to enter the college ranks since Anthony Davis arrived at Kentucky in 2011. To all the “but Zion!” sticklers in the chat: Williamson’s hype took off only after he thunder-stomped Kentucky in the 2018 Champions Classic.
So, what makes Flagg so special? He’s a 6-foot-9 do-everything forward, the rare teenager whose defense is ahead of his offense. Flagg is a shot-blocking supernova, even as an on-ball defender, and jumps passing lanes like an NFL safety. Offensively, he’s at his best slashing to the rim, where his creative finishing and touch make him a potent threat. His jump shot has been more maligned than it deserves. Flagg shot 38 percent from 3 last season for undefeated Montverde (Fla.) Academy, arguably the best high school team ever assembled. The Newport, Maine, native starred this summer for Team USA’s Select Team — despite the roster featuring rising NBA players like Brandon Miller and Jalen Suggs — and was, at times, the best player on the court … even while sharing the floor with LeBron James and Steph Curry.
But ask Flagg’s coach, Jon Scheyer, what stands out: “It’s how hard he’s worked. Genuinely how hard he’s worked. And you feel that or see that right away in a guy. Like, is he just about the hype, all this — or is he about the work? And he’s about the work.”
RJ Davis, graduate guard, North Carolina
The only returning first-team All-American from last season, Davis etched his name into Tar Heels lore with his standout senior season. The 6-0 guard averaged a career-best 21.2 points, plus 3.6 rebounds and 3.5 assists per game, while shooting 39.8 percent from 3 on 7.7 attempts per game. In the process, he led North Carolina to the program’s first regular-season ACC title and No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament since 2019. He set UNC’s single-season 3-point record and its single-game scoring record in the Dean Smith Center (42 points vs. Miami). And he became just the fifth Tar Heels guard to be named the ACC Player of the Year, joining Phil Ford, Michael Jordan, Joe Forte and Ty Lawson. And now Davis is among them, with the reigning Jerry West Award winner’s jersey slated to hang in the program’s rafters.
There’s more rarified air for Davis to reach. While Davis has perimeter talent aplenty surrounding him, he’s the player Hubert Davis will lean on to lead the Tar Heels to their second Final Four in four seasons — and finish the job UNC couldn’t in Hubert Davis’ debut season. And he is on the cusp of several individual records. He is almost certain to become UNC’s all-time leading 3-point shooter, surpassing both his coach and current assistant Marcus Paige, needing 26 made 3s to do so. He already has the program’s all-time free-throw percentage record, having made 85.8 percent across four seasons.
The record RJ Davis can claim that would cement him as one of college basketball’s best, even with the caveat of an extra season to do so? North Carolina’s and the ACC’s all-time scoring record, which currently belongs to Tyler Hansbrough. Davis is fifth in UNC history, but if he scores 784 points — ironically, the exact number he scored last season — he’ll tie Hansbrough atop the ACC’s career chart.
Johni Broome, graduate center, Auburn
Johni Broome came back for another run at March Madness. (Andy Lyons / Getty Images)
Despite playing a career-low 24.5 minutes, the 6-10, 235-pounder averaged 16.5 points, 8.5 rebounds and 2.2 blocks per game for Auburn, while emerging as one of the best two-way bigs in the nation. Broome even finished third in KenPom’s National Player of the Year rankings, behind only Edey and Tristen Newton, UConn’s triple-double machine. Broome more than deserves to be Auburn’s first preseason All-American since Chris Porter in 1999.
But on a Tigers team that once again can go nine or 10 deep, how much will Bruce Pearl lean on Broome? Considering last season’s frontcourt mate, Jaylin Williams, is gone, Broome could be the one exception to Pearl’s preference for depth. Auburn’s inconsistency is a large part of why the Tigers didn’t make a run in March. Per CBB Analytics, Broome’s “Hakeem Percentage” (a player’s combined block and steal rates) was in the 97th percentile nationally, and he ranked in the 99th percentile in points per 40 minutes. And if the word on the street that Broome spent much of this summer working on his perimeter game is true, one of the best low-post players in America may be too good for Pearl to sub out often.
He was one of the first COVID-19-eligible seniors to announce his return for a fifth season in April.
“I kind of proved a lot individually in my career,” Broome said at SEC media days. “My main goal is a team goal — which is to win the national championship, to make it as far as I can in March Madness. When the team shines, everyone shines individually.”
Kam Jones, senior guard, Marquette
Want see a work of art?:
(Courtesy of CBB Analytics)
Marquette’s top returning player, and the one with the best shot to lead the Big East in scoring this season, took only 3 percent of his shots last season in the midrange. It’s a modern shot chart on steroids, the sort of exclusive layups-and-3s diet that analytics dreams are made of. It’s how a player who attempted more than 200 2-pointers and 200 3-pointers last season ends up with an effective field-goal percentage of 60.2, a top-75 rate nationally and a top-20 rate among high-major players. Even with Tyler Kolek, a two-time All-American and the New York Knicks’ backup point guard, and Oso Ighodaro, a two-time All-Big East selection and a second-round pick by the Phoenix Suns, on the roster, Jones led the Golden Eagles in offensive rating last season.
Just in case we haven’t made the point by now, per Will Warren, here are the college players who have posted an offensive rating higher than 115, a usage rate higher than 25 percent, an effective field-goal percent higher than 60 and a box plus/minus of more than six, while taking 200-plus 2s and 3s: Steph Curry, Jalen Brunson, Buddy Hield, Doug McDermott, Sears … and Jones. This isn’t to say Jones is destined for pro stardom, but that he’s one of the most efficient volume scorers college basketball has ever seen.
Will he maintain that efficiency without two of Marquette’s triplets from the past two seasons? We’ll see. But Marquette coach Shaka Smart already has seen a glimpse of Jones’ potential sans Kolek, and it’s a sweet picture. In the six games Kolek missed in March, Jones averaged 20.8 points, 4.7 rebounds and 4.5 assists per game, while shooting 45.7 percent from 3 on nearly six attempts per game.
Second TeamHunter Dickinson, graduate center, Kansas
This year’s “Wait, He’s Still In College?” Award goes to Dickinson, a two-time All-American. Last season, his first at KU after transferring in from Michigan, the 7-1, 255-pounder averaged a career-best 10.9 rebounds per game, along with 17.9 points. Not surprisingly, per BartTorvik, that aligned with Dickinson’s best season-long defensive rebounding rate and was key to him averaging a double-double for the first time in four years. But that personal improvement didn’t necessarily correlate to team success. The Jayhawks struggled with depth and injuries, and the season ended with a 21-point whupping by Gonzaga in the NCAA Tournament’s second round.
So Dickinson’s back, and given Bill Self returned his top six scorers and added three of The Athletic’s top-30 transfers, the preseason Big 12 Player of the Year is poised to have possibly his best college campaign. KU’s perimeter additions will be especially valuable, diverting attention (and bodies) from Dickinson. Dickinson missed Kansas’ exhibition vs. Arkansas last week with a sprained foot, but it’s not expected to impact the actual season.
Alex Karaban, junior forward, Connecticut
The lone returning starter from UConn’s back-to-back national championship teams, Karaban easily could be in the NBA, but he opted to run it back, only this time as the star. Can he make that leap? We’re betting on it (and on Dan Hurley to get him there).
The 6-8, 225-pound stretch forward was one of the nation’s most efficient offensive players last season. Per KenPom, he was 23rd in offensive rating, although only third-best among the Huskies, but that was as UConn’s fourth, and sometimes fifth, option. Being No. 1 on the scouting report is another level. But there are reasons for optimism, starting with Karaban’s career 38.9 percent mark from 3. That marksmanship gives him a high baseline for success, especially in Hurley’s modern, five-out offense. And, per Synergy, Karaban was in the 95th percentile or better as a cutter, a roll man out of pick-and-rolls and in offensive putback scenarios (he averaged better than 1.5 points per possession in all three categories). One of the most efficient players in the nation during the past two seasons, he knows what it takes to win at the highest level.
If UConn is going to be the first program since John Wooden’s UCLA dynasty to win three straight titles, Karaban will need to be the best version of himself.
As he said at Big East media days, “I really can be the winningest college basketball player of all time.”
Caleb Love, graduate guard, Arizona
What is Love’s college legacy going to be? The 6-4 guard has taken a strange, winding path. A former five-star prospect, he was projected as a one-and-done recruit, had a shaky freshman year, and then his Hall of Fame coach, Roy Williams, retired. Love responded by leading North Carolina to the national championship game as a sophomore, hitting one of the biggest shots in history to effectively end Mike Krzyzewski’s coaching career. He passed on the NBA for another title chance, only to become the face of the first preseason No. 1 team to miss the NCAA Tournament. He transferred to Arizona, where he was named the Pac-12 Player of the Year. And now, well, we’ll see.
What’s next for Caleb Love in his roller-coaster career? (Christian Petersen / Getty Images)
In his first season under Tommy Lloyd at Arizona, Love posted career highs in points per game (18.0), rebounds per game (4.8), field-goal percentage (41.3 percent) and perhaps most importantly, assist-to-turnover ratio (3.4-to-2.1). Love put together the most consistent defensive season of his career, averaging a career-low 1.4 fouls per 40 minutes, per KenPom (34th best nationally and eighth-best among high-major players) and holding opponents to 36.1 percent shooting as a primary defender, per Synergy. It was exactly the type of ironing out folks hoped to see from Love under Lloyd’s direction. That said, Love’s propensity for shooting his team out of games showed up at the worst time. Love went 0-for-9 from 3 in Arizona’s Sweet 16 loss to Clemson, only the third time all season he didn’t make a 3-pointer.
Love should show more growth in his second season with Lloyd, but can Arizona fully insulate itself from Love’s struggles? The answer could determine if the Wildcats flame out again or if they make their first Final Four since 2001.
Graham Ike, senior forward, Gonzaga
Blame the “East Coast bias” for Ike not getting the national attention he deserves. But as the centerpiece of another loaded, top-10 Zags squad, we cannot ignore the 6-9, 250-pound forward’s production or his development into arguably the best back-to-the-basket big in the country. Ike averaged 16.5 points and 7.4 rebounds per game last season, his first at Gonzaga after transferring from Wyoming, and was borderline unstoppable down low. Per CBB Analytics, he shot 57.3 percent in the paint — the Division I average was 41.1 percent — but was even more dominant at the rim, where he shot a staggering 75.5 percent. It’s no surprise then that, per Synergy, Ike was in the 92nd percentile in post-up scoring last season, averaging 1.115 points per possession. Mark Few’s team learned early to get the ball to the big fella down low and get out of the way.
As one of four starters back for Gonzaga, and one of two who will garner All-America consideration, along with point guard Ryan Nembhard, Ike doesn’t have to be a singular force. But considering how dominant he was inside, it would behoove Few to keep force-feeding his low-post threat. The Zags play No. 8 Baylor, No. 23 Kentucky, No. 3 UConn and No. 22 UCLA, giving Ike plenty of opportunity to emerge as one of the faces of this season.
Ryan Kalkbrenner, graduate center, Creighton
Only three players have been named the Big East Defensive Player of the Year three times: Patrick Ewing, Alonzo Mourning and Kalkbrenner. Kalkbrenner well could be the best defensive player in the country this season. His career-high 3.1 blocks per game last season were second nationally and tops among high-major players. He had almost twice as many games with four-plus blocks (15) as he did games with one or zero blocks (eight). That’s not even counting how many shots the 7-1, 270-pound center discourages from being attempted.
But as good as Kalkbrenner is defensively, he’s the Preseason Big East Player of the Year because he’s an all-around talent. He was ninth nationally in true shooting percentage last year, a slight dip from his first-place ranking the year before, per KenPom. He averaged a career-high 17.3 points per game, despite having Creighton’s third-highest usage rate. (That should improve this season.) Per Synergy, Kalkbrenner was in the 99th percentile in offensive putbacks and the 97th percentile of post-ups last season.
Kalkbrenner isn’t just huge; he’s huge and incredibly good. And he’s the biggest why Creighton is a threat to make its first Final Four trip after multiple years of knocking on the door.
Braden Smith, junior guard, Purdue
What will Purdue look like in a post-Edey world? The Boilermakers have Trey Kaufman-Renn ready to fill Edey’s position, but Smith will be Purdue’s driving force. Smith was productive as a sophomore with 12 points, 7.5 assists (the second-most nationally) and 5.8 rebounds per game, but he didn’t have to carry the team. Can Smith be as impactful when he’s not throwing a dozen entry passes a game to a two-time National Player of the Year?
The pessimistic view hinges on Smith’s lackluster NCAA Tournament performance. Even including his 14-point, 15-assist masterpiece against Gonzaga in the Sweet 16, Smith averaged nine points per game in March Madness, with his field-goal percentage dropping from his year-long rate of 44.1 percent to 36.4 percent. His 3-point shot also dipped. Smith gets the benefit of the doubt in his first true NCAA Tournament run. There’s still clear room for him to grow. For example: Smith was in the 98th percentile in midrange 2-point attempts last season, per CBB Analytics, despite making those shots at only a 37.5 percent clip. Move some of those back behind the arc — especially atop the key, where he made 43.3 percent of such 3s — and we’re talking about a much more efficient shot diet.
He’s already one of the nation’s best point guards, a quintessential set-up man who ranked in the top 75 in 3-point rate and in the top 12 in assist rate last season, per KenPom. And if Smith does have a similar leap left like the one he made between his freshman and sophomore seasons, the Boilermakers have as good a shot as anyone to win a wide-open Big Ten.
Others receiving votes: Hunter Sallis, Wake Forest (four second-team votes); Wade Taylor IV, Texas A&M (one first, one second); Ryan Nembhard, Gonzaga (three seconds); Kadary Richmond, St. John’s (two seconds); Johnell Davis, Arkansas; Norchad Omier, Baylor; Tyon Grant-Foster, Grand Canyon; Zakai Zeigler, Tennessee; Milan Momcilovic, Iowa State; L.J. Cryer, Houston (one second each)
(Top image: Dan Goldfarb / The Athletic; Photos: Lance King, Michael Hickey, C. Morgan Engel / NCAA Photos / Getty)
Source link : http://www.bing.com/news/apiclick.aspx?ref=FexRss&aid=&tid=671f8fdc6e2247ff956745e3428e1d84&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.nytimes.com%2Fathletic%2F5873559%2F2024%2F10%2F28%2Fcollege-basketball-preseason-all-americans-mark-sears-cooper-flagg%2F&c=6953456306446318149&mkt=en-us
Author :
Publish date : 2024-10-27 23:41:00
Copyright for syndicated content belongs to the linked Source.