What’s ahead for Alabama football in November with CFP hopes on the line

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Alabama football's College Football Playoff hopes will come down to its final four games in November.

With losses to Vanderbilt and Tennessee, the Crimson Tide are seemingly on the edge of elimination for the expanded CFP. Ahead of its second idle week, Alabama has a 53% chance of making the 12-team playoff with games left against LSU, Mercer, Oklahoma and Auburn per ESPN's Playoff Predictor.

Here is a look at each of the Crimson Tide's remaining four games and what it means for the CFP race.

Alabama football at LSU; 6:30 p.m. Nov. 9, ABC Alabama's tallest task comes first.

The Crimson Tide will travel to Baton Rouge, Louisiana to face LSU at 6:30 p.m. CT Nov. 9, the fourth-straight prime-time meeting between Alabama and the Tigers.

Like Alabama, LSU has two losses, falling to USC in the season opener before losing to Texas A&M Oct. 26. With a third loss on the line, the meeting between the Tigers and the Crimson Tide is viewed by many as a CFP elimination game.

According to ESPN's Playoff Predictor, Alabama has a 14% chance to make the CFP with a loss to LSU and wins against Mercer, Oklahoma and Auburn.

LSU has struggled defensively. The Tigers are one of four SEC defenses to allow more than 22 points per game paired with the second-worst total defense in the conference at 372 yards allowed per game.

Led by quarterback Garrett Nussmeier, LSU has the second-best passing offense in the SEC with 337 passing yards per game.

Alabama vs Mercer; 1 p.m. Nov. 16, ESPN+, SEC Network + Alabama's annual meeting with an FCS football program will likely not define the Crimson Tide's path to the CFP.

Since 2009, Alabama has played in 13 FCS games, and has won each by an average of over 44 points, and never by less than 24 points.

Alabama faced off against Mercer in 2017 and beat the Bears 56-0. The Crimson Tide should see something similar Nov. 16 at home.

Alabama at Oklahoma; Nov. 23 Oklahoma has had a rough introduction to the SEC.

The Sooners have lost four of five conference games. Oklahoma's only win against an SEC opponent was by six points against Auburn.

Alabama has not faced Oklahoma in the regular season since a 2002-03 home-and-home the Sooners swept. In 2024, Oklahoma has the second-worst scoring offense (21.1 points) and the worst total offense (293.3 yards) in the SEC through eight games.

According to ESPN's Playoff Predictor, Alabama has a 19% chance to make the CFP with a road loss to Oklahoma and wins against LSU, Mercer and Auburn.

Alabama vs Auburn; Nov. 30 Anything can happen in the Iron Bowl. But Auburn has struggled in 2024. with only one SEC win against Kentucky.

But of Auburn's SEC losses, two of them - Oklahoma and Missouri - have been my one score or less.

According to ESPN's Playoff Predictor, Alabama has a 18% chance to make the CFP with a loss to Auburn and wins against LSU, Mercer and Oklahoma.

Auburn has not beaten Alabama since 2019. On Nov. 30, Payton Thorne, Jarquez Hunter and the Tigers will try for their first win against the Crimson Tide in Tuscaloosa since 2010.

Colin Gay covers Alabama football for The Tuscaloosa News, part of the USA TODAY Network. Reach him at cgay@gannett.com or follow him @_ColinGay on X, formerly known as Twitter.

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