Will a Tropical Storm Rafael threaten a storm-weary Florida? Here’s the latest update

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At least Florida had a whole three weeks to recover from the last storm this time.

Tropical Storm Rafael formed in the Caribbean Monday morning and was nearing tropical storm strength by the afternoon. The storm is forecast to be a hurricane by Tuesday night before it enters the Gulf of Mexico, according to forecasters with the National Hurricane Center.

Heavy rainfall will spread north into Florida and adjacent areas of the Southeast United States during mid to late week, forecasters said. Hazardous marine conditions, large, breaking waves in the surf zone and a high risk of rip currents are expected along most of Florida's coast throughout most of the week.

Most early models are showing the storm moving northwest toward Alabama, Louisiana or even Texas after it drenches Jamaica and Cuba. But even with the current path, Florida will still get a piece of it

While the idea of another hurricane coming near the state is alarming, "the risks of damaging wind or surge on the U.S. Gulf Coast remain quite low due to hostile conditions near shore," said WeatherTiger chief meteorologist Ryan Truchelut, "and enhanced rain chances should be TD 18’s only meaningful impact on Florida and vicinity."

The western Caribbean will see the heaviest rainfall over Jamaica and portions of Cuba through mid-week with 3 to 6 inches expected, and up to 9 inches in some areas, with potential for flooding and mudslides. The Cayman Islands is under a hurricane watch and a tropical storm warning is in effect for Jamaica.

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Many Floridians are still dealing with the aftermath of the widespread flooding and wind-damaged or destroyed buildings and homes from the devastating one-two punch of hurricanes Helene and Milton. Massive piles of debris and chainsawed trees can be seen in front of houses waiting for pickup nearly a month after Milton swept across the state in October.

The next names in the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season are Rafael and Sara.

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Tropical Storm Rafael forms. Is a hurricane heading toward Florida? The Caribbean waters are warm enough for tropical development, even this late in the season. The system is expected to develop into a hurricane.

Where it goes depends on the wind shear, or disruptive breezes, that have been keeping tropical development low the last few weeks, and a dip in the jet stream over a thousand miles away.

"If that jet stream dip pushes far enough to the east, it will tend to scoop up the tropical feature and possibly draw it across the southeastern Gulf of Mexico and into South Florida," AccuWeather meteorologist Bernie Rayno said. "But, if the jet stream dip lags to the west, the tropical feature may push into the western or central Gulf of Mexico, where it could threaten areas as far to the west as Louisiana or Texas.

"There's also the possibility it continues due westward and diminishes over southern Mexico," he said.

Where is Tropical Storm Rafael? At 4 p.m. EST, the center of Tropical Storm Rafael was located near latitude 15.5 North, longitude 76.7 West. Rafael is moving toward the north near 9 mph. A northwestward motion is expected to begin later tonight and forecast to continue for the next few days.

On the forecast track, the system is expected to move near Jamaica late tonight, be near or over the Cayman Islands late Tuesday, and approach Cuba on Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph with higher gusts. Steady to rapid strengthening is expected and the system is forecast to become a hurricane on Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles from the center.

Who is likely to be impacted by Tropical Storm Rafael? Accuweather

Embedded content: https://cms.accuweather.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/Rainstorm-Risk-Caribbean-11.2-pm.jpg?w=632

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the Cayman Islands by Tuesday afternoon and are possible in western Cuba and the Isle of Youth on Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in Jamaica by this evening and are possible in central Cuba on Wednesday.

RAINFALL: Heavy rainfall will impact areas of the western Caribbean with the heaviest rainfall occurring over Jamaica and portions of Cuba through mid-week. Rainfall totals between 3 to 6 inches with locally up to 9 inches are expected. Flooding could occur over portions of Jamaica and Cuba, with mudslides possible.

Heavy rainfall will spread north into Florida and adjacent areas of the Southeast United States during mid- to late week.

STORM SURGE: Minor coastal flooding is possible in Jamaica tonight and the Cayman Islands on Tuesday. Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds along the southern coast of Pinar del Rio, Cuba, including the Isle of Youth.

SURF: Swells generated by the system are expected to affect much of the western Caribbean during the next few days.

Watches, warnings issued ahead of Tropical Storm Rafael Here are the latest watches and warnings issued for areas threatened by Potential Tropical Storm Eighteen:

Hurricane Warning:

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

Hurricane Watch:

Cuban provinces of Pinar del Rio, Artemisa, La Habana, Mayabeque, Matanzas, and the Isle of Youth

Hurricane watch: A hurricane watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

Tropical Storm Warning:

Tropical storm warning: A tropical storm warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

Tropical Storm Watch:

Cuban provinces of Villa Clara, Cienfuegos, Sancti Spiritus, Ciego de Avila, Camaguey, and Las Tunas

Lower and Middle Florida Keys from Key West to west of the Channel 5 Bridge

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

No watches or warnings have been issued for Florida at this time.

Special note about spaghetti models: Illustrations include an array of forecast tools and models, and not all are created equal. The Hurricane Center uses only the top four or five highest performing models to help make its forecasts.

Stay informed. Get weather alerts via textWhen is the Atlantic hurricane season? The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through Nov. 30.

The Atlantic basin includes the northern Atlantic Ocean, the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico.

Countdown clock: When will hurricane season end?Interactive map: Hurricanes, tropical storms that have passed near your cityWhat's next? We will continue to update our tropical weather coverage daily. Download your local site's app to ensure you're always connected to the news. And look for our special subscription offers here.

(This story was updated to add new information.)

This article originally appeared on Naples Daily News: Florida could see heavy rain from a Tropical Storm Rafael

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Will a Tropical Storm Rafael threaten a storm-weary Florida? Here’s the latest update

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Gulf Coast braces as Tropical Storm Rafael forms in Caribbean

Gulf Coast braces as Tropical Storm Rafael forms in Caribbean

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