Donald Trump has recorded an emphatic defeat of Kamala Harris, racing past the 270 electoral votes he needed with states to spare.
A win in Wisconsin tipped him over the line, but it was victories for Mr Trump in the key states of Pennsylvania, Georgia and North Carolina – the three largest battlegrounds – that left Ms Harris facing an insurmountable task.
Kamala Harris is yet to win a single one of the seven battlegrounds, and Mr Trump is also likely win the popular vote for the first time. That would be the first Republican popular vote victory since 2004 and only the second since 1988.
The exit poll suggests that Mr Trump will inherit an America that is increasingly divided on party lines and what the biggest issues facing the country are, but slightly less so in terms of demographic indicators like race and age.
Black and Latino voters have backed Trump in higher numbers than previously, while white voters and older voters – particularly women – have moved closer to the Democrats.
The results in the remaining battlegrounds, plus a handful of other states are still outstanding. Mr Trump’s electoral college score in 2016 was 304 – he will surpass that with victories in states where he is currently leading.
Results at county-level skew heavily towards Mr Trump across the whole country. The vote has swung towards him in 90% of counties that have counted more than 95% of their votes.
The key to victory for Mr Trump was increasing the vote in more ethnically diverse areas. He increased his vote share by almost seven points on average in counties that had the highest non-white populations, compared with just two points in the most white counties.
That included a remarkable turnaround in Miami-Dade in Florida. Two thirds of the county is Latino, putting it in the top 1% of the country. It’s a massive county, with over 250,000 voters, and the last Republican to win there was George H W Bush 36 years ago.
Trump himself lost by 30 points there in 2016.
In North Carolina, Trump picked up most votes in places with more than 20% black population, while the vote share in counties with a lower black population was hardly changed from 2020.
That was enough for Trump to flip back Nash County, which has a 41% black population. The county has had razor-thin majorities since 2008 but Trump came out on top this time.
In Pennsylvania, Trump did best in areas with fewer white non-college educated voters – usually one of his most important groups of voters. This is also partly because he had more room to grow in this group.
So far we know of 45 counties which have flipped between parties from their 2020 result. All but three of these have favoured Mr Trump. Seventeen of them had voted Democrat at every election since at least 2000.
What did the exit poll tell us?
The election found the American public in an unforgiving mood, but divided on what its most pressing concerns were.
The exit poll, carried out by Sky’s US partner NBC News, points towards a country that is dissatisfied with its current situation. This matches many other countries that have had elections during the last few years of global high inflation, many of whom have also reacted by enthusiastically booting out incumbent governments.
On both sides, only a few people said they made their decision in the last month – four in five had already decided who to vote for before September.
Two-thirds of people consider the condition of the nation’s economy to be not so good or poor.
A remarkable three-quarters of people told the exit poll they felt dissatisfied or angry about the way things are going in the country.
And some 60% expressed disapproval of the Supreme Court, while a similar number of people disapproved of the way Joe Biden is handling his job as president.
Harris voters thought “democracy” was the most important issue behind their vote, while Trump supporters rated the economy and immigration higher.
The exit poll also tells us that Mr Trump sacrificed support among some of his most reliable groups. Voters aged over 65 backed the Democrats this year, having favoured Mr Trump at the last two elections. He also lost support among white women and white non-college-educated people.
Harris’s polling lead was also down among some groups that had supported Biden most ardently. As well as the massive fall among Latino voters, she lost votes among the youngest voters and women.
In a year in which abortion was also on the ballot in 10 states, these two groups in particular were expected to be among Harris’s most solid groups of supporters.
Explore how voter trends for other demographics have shifted with this tool.
How have the abortion rights gone?
As well as the election, voters in 10 states were also voting on whether there should be a right to abortion enshrined and protected in the local constitution.
Voters in New York, Arizona, Nevada, Maryland, Missouri and Colorado, as well as traditionally conservative Montana, have voted to establish that right. South Dakota, a neighbour of Montana, is the only state where a majority have voted against so far.
Voters in Florida narrowly failed to reach the 60% threshold required to pass the measure, although a clear majority of people did support the right. It was the only state that needed more than a simple majority to pass.
Nebraska has voted to restrict abortions after the first trimester, but a separate vote in the state – in favour of the right to abortion – is too close to call.
According to the exit poll, 92% of Democrat voters across the country believed that abortion should be legal, contrasting with 38% of Republicans.
As well as abortion, voters were also at odds with their now president-elect on immigration – 56% of people believed that undocumented immigrants should be offered a chance to apply for legal status.
What about the Senate and the House?
The Democrats have lost control of the Senate. They had a 51/49 majority going into the elections and have lost two seats to Republicans so far, in Ohio and West Virginia.
Defending their majority would always have been difficult this year. The seats that were up were ones the party had won six years previously, at the “blue wave” midterm elections in 2018 – halfway through Trump’s first term.
The Republicans have also made gains in the House, where they already had a majority.
If they secure the majority there too, Donald Trump will begin his presidency with control over both legislative chambers, just as he did in 2016.
The Data and Forensics team is a multi-skilled unit dedicated to providing transparent journalism from Sky News. We gather, analyse and visualise data to tell data-driven stories. We combine traditional reporting skills with advanced analysis of satellite images, social media and other open source information. Through multimedia storytelling we aim to better explain the world while also showing how our journalism is done.
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Publish date : 2024-11-05 17:42:00
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