We’re optimistic about everything except our politics

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We went searching for hope.

In Hope.

From Maine to Alaska, we reported from towns named Hope about the state of a nation that to all appearances is divided, angry and fearful about its future amid a ferocious election year. We found challenges everywhere, from the economic to the existential.

By more than 2-1, Americans tell the USA TODAY/Suffolk University Poll that the country is headed in the wrong direction. Only half of likely voters, 49%, are casting a ballot based mostly on what they hope their candidate would do if elected. Almost as many, 41%, say their vote is based on what they fear the other candidate would do, given the chance.

A sense of alarm seems to be the sentiment that most unites us: the Anxious States of America.

Yet in fundamental ways, Americans continue to express an abiding faith in the nation's resilience and a buoyant optimism about what's ahead. By a margin of more than 6 to 1 ‒ 81% to 13% ‒ Americans say they have "hope for the future of the country," a view that stretches across lines of gender, race and political party.

The poll of 1,000 likely voters, taken by landline and cellphone Aug. 25 to 28, has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.

What gives us hope? Tied at the top of list is "the American spirit," a gauzy concept, and the 237-year-old U.S. Constitution, a concrete document.

That said, there is even broader agreement about what makes us feel hopeless. "Politicians" lead the list among Democrats, Republicans and independents. Close behind, across the board, is "increasing polarization and lack of respect for others' opinions."

"The divisiveness is a disaster," says Kim Larson, 54, an accountant from Hyde Park, Utah. The political independent was among those surveyed. "The more people can't even talk to each other, and our friends are being not friends any more, and horrible social media posts and texts − the more that happens, the worse the country is going."

Official population: 113. Fact check? Maybe not In Hope, Alaska, climate change and the warming coastal waters it has brought are threatening salmon fishing grounds. On the other side of the continent, Hope, Maine, sees strains between longtime residents and the newcomers who began arriving in greater numbers during the pandemic. Michigan's two Hope Townships are in the middle of a swing state barraged with campaign appeals that have fractured some families. Hope, New Mexico, barely stays on the map with an official population of 113 − a figure locals say is likely an overstatement.

“We’re more or less a family here," said Bill Fletcher, the town's 85-year-old mayor. "None of us is kin, but we’re a family anyway. You scratch one of us, we all bleed.”

Then there's Hope, Arkansas, revitalizing its downtown but struggling to reverse a population decline and low rates of voter engagement. It had a flash of fame when native son Bill Clinton won the White House after highlighting his hometown heritage in "a place called Hope," though to be fair he also attacked opponent George H.W. Bush during the campaign.

That convention video was in 1992, more than three decades ago. In 2008, Barack Obama's winning campaign slogan promised "hope and change," although he ran negative ads against John McCain as well. Obama's iconic campaign poster displayed that single word: "HOPE."

That has not been the dominant message of this year's campaign. Republican nominee Donald Trump predicts that if he loses, a crushing depression and new world war could follow. Violent crime and uncontrolled illegal immigration would threaten citizens' safety and the country's survival.

"The only thing standing behind you and obliteration is me," the former president has declared.

Democratic nominee Kamala Harris has adopted more politics-of-joy language than President Joe Biden was using before he stepped back from his reelection race and his vice president stepped up. He had warned that Trump's election would endanger democracy itself. Harris' tone toward the former president tends to be more mocking than apocalyptic.

Nonetheless, she calls Trump a would-be despot who, if he wins, would dismantle reproductive and other freedoms.

Harris voters are a tick more likely to be motivated by fear of Trump than by hope about her, 47%-45%. (Fear was a much bigger factor for Biden supporters. In a USA TODAY survey in June, just 27% of those backing Biden were motivated mostly by hope for him; 66% cited their fear of Trump.)

In the August poll, one-third of Trump supporters, 33%, were motivated by fear of Harris, 58% by hope about him.

The intensity of those feelings − including the disbelief that anyone could possibly support the other side − can make it hard to reach common ground, or even recognize when it's there.

"I'm terrified and sickened at the thought of what's going to happen if the other candidate wins," said Melissa Bennett, 54, an office manager from Pasco, Washington, who was polled. A Republican, she is supporting Trump. "My biggest fear … comes down to the security of our country (with) her as our commander in chief."

Shandee Gordon, 45, principal of an elementary school in Morrilton, Arkansas, is an independent who supports Harris.

"I'm hopeful that she's going to do the things that she says she's going to do," she said. "With him, he's just a horrible, horrible person that does bad things. He's a criminal. I just don't understand why anybody's voting for him. I don't get it. I just don't get it."

Inspirational? Obama for Democrats, Reagan for the GOP Considering the past few years, Americans aren't being irrational when they worry about the future.

The worst pandemic in a century, claiming more than 1 million lives in the United States. The most violent attempt to overturn a presidential election in history, an assault on the U.S. Capitol as Electoral College votes were being certified. The most serious invasion in Europe since World War II, with the conflict between Russia and Ukraine still raging.

"Events in the world matter in that they kind of prime people to be anxious about certain things," said Shana Kushner Gadarian, a political scientist at Syracuse University and co-author of "Anxious Politics: Democratic Citizenship in a Threatening World."

"But politicians come in and through their ads and through talking to people and their speeches, they really hammer on particular issues," she said, "because they believe, or they have a sense from polling data, that it benefits their party for people to be anxious about those things."

Fear can be a powerful force in politics, she said, though research indicates hope is a stronger motivator in actually winning people's votes.

The American presidents considered the greatest in our history struck themes of hope in times more desperate than these. Abraham Lincoln in his first inaugural address called for Americans to tap "the better angels of our nature" as the Civil War loomed. During the depths of the Great Depression, Franklin D. Roosevelt in his first inaugural address counseled the country, "The only thing we have to fear is fear itself."

Nearly 9 of 10 Americans say there has been a president during their lifetimes who inspired them.

On this, there are clear answers and a sharp partisan divide. Nearly half of Republicans, 48%, cite Ronald Reagan, compared with just 3% of Democrats. In the GOP, Trump ranks second, at 18%.

More than half of Democrats, 56%, cite Barack Obama, compared with just 4% of Republicans. Among Democrats, John F. Kennedy is second, at 17%. (Since JFK was assassinated in 1963, those who were around during his lifetime would be 60 or older today.)

The earlier poll of 1,000 registered voters by landline and cellphone June 28-30 has a 3.1-point margin of error.

In their own lives, Americans tell us that their family, their faith and their friends give them hope. For the country, after the "American spirit" and the Constitution, they cite young people as a source of strength. For the forces feeding hopelessness, beyond the state of today's politics, they name world affairs.

Candidates and their campaigns can affect how hopeful, and hopeless, Americans feel.

In the poll, taken just before the Fourth of July, when Biden was the presumptive Democratic nominee, 84% of Democrats were hopeful about the future − a percentage that jumped nine points, to 93%, when the same question was asked two months later, after Harris had become the nominee.

The reverse happened for Republicans. In late June, 82% were hopeful about the future, a percentage that sank by double digits, to 72%, in late August. During that time, Trump survived an assassination attempt. What's more, the conventional wisdom became that he has a more difficult election ahead with Harris as his opponent than he did with Biden.

"Well, I think the country has problems; I think the world has problems," says Jane Crosson, 67, a retired pediatric cardiologist from Durham, North Carolina. A Democrat, she supports Harris. "But I don't think the problems are insurmountable. I think that there's a lot of good things happening, and we can move forward if we can just get past this craziness."

Hope has an unmistakable appeal, says Jeannine Jabaay, 47. That is, Hope, Alaska, which is just about the end of the road of the continental United States. Her family owns and manages the Dirty Skillet Restaurant and the Bear Creek Lodge Cabins there.

"Hope has a weird way of drawing you in," she says. "Nobody ends up in Hope by accident. It has to be intentional."

Contributing: Trevor Hughes, Lauren Villagran

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