America’s Rivals Are Reaping Benefits of Jailing US Civilians

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America's adversaries, such as Russia and Belarus, are becoming increasingly emboldened to detain U.S. civilians to coerce Washington into lopsided deals that serve their political and strategic interests, experts said.

In recent years, Moscow exchanged crypto kingpin Alexander Vinnik for American teacher Marc Fogel; arms dealer Viktor Bout for American basketball player Brittney Griner; and convicted Russian assassin and intelligence agent Vadim Krasikov for Wall Street Journal reporter Evan Gershkovich, Marine veteran Paul Whelan and Russian-American journalist Alsu Kurmasheva.

Meanwhile, Belarus is reported to be considering releasing dissidents and an American citizen in exchange for sanctions relief, according to the New York Times.

Experts caution that these exchanges are becoming increasingly one-sided and may encourage leaders such as Russian President Vladimir Putin and Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko to detain more U.S. citizens as leverage.

Newsweek has contacted the U.S. State Department and the foreign ministries of Russia and Belarus for comment via email.

America's adversaries, such as Russia and Belarus, are becoming increasingly emboldened to detain U.S. civilians to coerce Washington into lopsided deals that serve their political and strategic interests, experts said. America's adversaries, such as Russia and Belarus, are becoming increasingly emboldened to detain U.S. civilians to coerce Washington into lopsided deals that serve their political and strategic interests, experts said. Photo-illustration by Newsweek/Getty Hostage Diplomacy Washington's rivals and adversaries, in particular Moscow, are "unquestionably leveraging the detention of U.S. citizens for political gain," said Danielle Gilbert, an assistant professor at Northwestern University who advises Western governments on hostage recovery.

Russia has been engaging in hostage diplomacy, which is "when governments use their criminal justice systems to take foreigners hostage," she told Newsweek.

Autocratic governments are becoming increasingly confident that they can detain foreigners to extract high-value returns, she said, pointing to last week's prisoner swap which saw President Donald Trump exchange Vinnik for Fogel, a history teacher from Pennsylvania who had been sentenced to 14 years in prison in Russia after being arrested in 2021 for carrying medical marijuana. The U.S. government designated him in October as "wrongfully detained."

Trump was initially tight-lipped about the terms of the deal that secured Fogel's release, saying only that it was "very fair."

"Last week's deal with Russia marks a shift," Gilbert said. "The U.S. didn't just engage in a prisoner swap—it also appears to have made significant and unprecedented policy concessions to Putin."

Belarus Follows Russian Playbook Lukashenko, Putin's ally and neighbor, also appears to be engaging in hostage diplomacy as it considers the release of U.S. civilians and political dissidents in exchange for economic relief, the Times reported on February 15.

Christopher W. Smith, a deputy assistant secretary of state, along with two other American officials, reportedly made a discreet visit to Minsk for talks with Lukashenko.

The following day, Smith told Western diplomats that the Belarusian leader may soon agree to a deal to release several political prisoners in exchange for the U.S. easing sanctions on Belarusian banks and exports of potash—a key fertilizer ingredient.

Biden vs. Trump Ukrainian journalist Viktor Kovalenko highlighted the contrast between the Biden and Trump administrations in their handling of prisoner exchanges with Russia and Belarus.

Kovalenko told Newsweek that Trump "demonstrated greater flexibility, showing readiness to exchange Americans or Belarusian opposition activists for critical policy compromises with Putin, such as lifting sanctions, opening export channels, or negotiating a peace deal in Ukraine."

In contrast, the Biden administration "attempted to retrieve Putin's hostages without compromising on critical policy matters such as NATO, sanctions, or Ukraine, and exchanged Americans and Russian opposition leaders for spies and criminals only."

In analysis published on February 15, Gilbert said Fogel's swap with Vinnik may signal a bigger shift in U.S. policy.

Unlike previous high-profile exchanges, in which prisoners were typically swapped simultaneously in real-time, Gilbert noted that this deal more closely resembled a ransom "drop"—a tactic more common in kidnap-for-ransom cases than in traditional state-level negotiations.

Gilbert also noted that in the past, Trump and other Republicans jumped to criticize Democrats' deals to bring hostages home, often calling them "unfair" or "bad deals."

Yet, in this case, Trump defended the swap, saying it was "very fair, very reasonable, not like deals you've seen over the years."

"Indeed, the president is correct that this deal was unlike those negotiated during the Biden administration," Gilbert said. "In this case, Trump seems to have conceded much, much more to bring an American home."

Emily Ferris, a senior research fellow at the London-based think tank RUSI, suggested that the swap could be tied to Trump's broader effort to broker a peace deal with Putin over the war with Ukraine.

This method of detaining individuals suspected of ties to foreign security services or the military—particularly those with potential access to classified information—has increased in recent years, as relations with the West have deteriorated, she told Newsweek.

"As we've seen from the latest prisoner exchange with Russia and the U.S. in recent days, although the Kremlin was at pains to point out this was separate from the talks over Ukraine, it was clearly part of a goodwill effort on both sides, to signal that they were then prepared to come to the table to talk about bigger strategic issues."

As of this month, several U.S. citizens remain detained in Russia and Belarus. In Russia, some of these detainees include Stephen Hubbard, Travis Leake, Gordon Black, David Barnes, Robert Gilman, Eugene Spector and Joseph Tater. In Belarus, opposition politician and lawyer Yuras Ziankovich, who has dual Belarusian and U.S. citizenship, remains jailed.

Hostage Diplomacy Sign Of Putin's 'Weakness' Putin's tactic to detain U.S. civilians and political opposition activists for strategic gains intensified when he decided to challenge NATO by invading Ukraine in 2014, annexing Crimea, Kovalenko said.

This growing reliance on hostage diplomacy reflects Putin's desperation, he said.

"Russia is running out of real leverage over the U.S., so it resorts to this terrorist method to gain at least something," Kovalenko added. "This is a sign of Russia's weakness."

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America’s Rivals Are Reaping Benefits of Jailing US Civilians

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