How this Arizona county could play a crucial role in deciding the fate of Kamala Harris and Donald Trump – Firstpost

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Voters in Maricopa County, the largest in the US swing state of Arizona, could play a key role in choosing who the next president will be – and they could also determine which major party controls the White House after the November presidential elections this year.

Here are five key facts about the county:

The hottest city in the US

Maricopa County is home to Phoenix, the state capital of Arizona, where four months of the year have average high temperatures above 37.7 degrees Celsius.

Founded on the remnants of an ancient native civilisation, the sun-drenched metropolis was given its name in the late 19th century. The little town in the northern Sonoran Desert had a post-Civil War value of only $550.

With the aid of irrigation, Phoenix transformed from a peaceful frontier hamlet with saguaro cacti to a hub for citrus, cattle, and cotton.

Later on, tuberculosis patients were drawn to it because of its hot, dry atmosphere.

The neighbourhood saw a sharp increase in population following World War II as a result of the arrival of air conditioning, as well as the influx of immigrants, pensioners, and young families looking for affordable housing and pleasant weather.

Phoenix has surpassed Philadelphia to become the fifth-largest city in the US by population. The hub for industrial and financial services is home to more than 1.6 million Americans, per the most recent US Census.

Maricopa County makes up 62 per cent of Arizona’s population with 4.5 million residents. It is also the country’s second-largest voting jurisdiction.

Previously a Republican bastion

The county was, until recently, a solid Republican bastion.

“The real significant election, I think, was in 2016 when Trump took the county just by three percentage points. Four years earlier, it was taken by Mitt Romney by 11 points,” David Berman, professor emeritus of political science at Arizona State University, told AFP.

In 2020, President Joe Biden defeated Donald Trump in Maricopa County by over 45,000 votes, helping him end the Republican Party’s nearly eight-decade winning streak in Arizona.

Berman said Trump’s right-wing agenda has alienated some Arizonans who prefer more centrist Republicans, such as late US senator John McCain.

The growing Hispanic community

Based on the most recent census, the Hispanic community in Maricopa County has increased to over one-third of the total population.

This shift is a part of a broader pattern that has been influenced by increased immigration.

Arizona’s Hispanic population grew by 16 per cent between 2010 and 2020, outpacing the state’s overall population growth.

“There has been a concentrated effort to bring out the Hispanic vote as well as the Native American vote,” Berman said of the groups, which tend to vote Democratic.

He added that there have also been “some gains for Democrats” as people seeking cheaper housing and better job opportunities continue to move to Arizona from more traditionally liberal states such as California.

‘A red state with purple spots’

More than a third of Maricopa County citizens are not associated with any party, despite Arizona’s history of Republican voting and recent Democratic breakthroughs.

As to the latest data from the county, roughly 34 per cent of registered voters identify themselves as “other,” which is higher than the percentage of Democrats at 28 per cent and comparable to that of Republicans at 35 per cent.

The results of the county’s elections are now more uncertain due to the steady increase in that proportion during the last few years.

“Maricopa County still has quite a bit of red in it, and these swing voters will generally opt for more traditional Republicans,” rather than Trump’s hard-right brand, said Paul Bentz, senior vice president at Phoenix-based public affairs firm Highground.

“We are not a purple state,” he said, referring to an area evenly mixed between Republican red and Democratic blue.

“We are a red state with purple spots.”

Early voting dominates

In 2020 and 2022, almost 80 per cent of the county’s voters cast early ballots, following a statewide pattern that began prior to the coronavirus pandemic.

“We’ve been doing it for over three decades. Republicans are really the ones that brought early voting to the state of Arizona,” Bentz said.

The practice became easily available in 1991 when the state legislature permitted voters to obtain an absentee ballot for any reason.

After a decade, Arizona developed a system that provides voters with an automatic ballot for every election that is scheduled.

Voter verification and counting now take several days due to the increase in mail-in ballots since the outbreak.

In 2020, the majority of US news networks took over a week to declare their support for Biden.

With inputs from AFP

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How this Arizona county could play a crucial role in deciding the fate of Kamala Harris and Donald Trump – Firstpost

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