Kari Lake, the Republican Senate candidate, has been stung by a new Fox News poll which shows her far behind her Democratic rival in Arizona.
Lake is trailing Ruben Gallego on both voting intention and favorability, the poll shows.
Gallego is polling at 55 percent among likely voters, and 56 percent among registered voters, whereas Lake is polling at 42 percent among both likely and registered voters.
Gallego, who is the current representative for Arizona’s 3rd Congressional District, and Lake, who is a former local Fox News anchor, are running for an open seat.
The seat is currently occupied by Kyrsten Sinema, who left the Democratic party to become an Independent in December 2023, and then chose not to run for re-election.
Right: U.S. Rep. Ruben Gallego speaking at the Democratic National Convention, August 22, 2024, Chicago, Illinois. Left: Kari Lake speaking at an event on January 23, 2023. Gallego is currently polling at over 10 points…
Right: U.S. Rep. Ruben Gallego speaking at the Democratic National Convention, August 22, 2024, Chicago, Illinois. Left: Kari Lake speaking at an event on January 23, 2023. Gallego is currently polling at over 10 points ahead of Lake in the Arizona Senate Race.
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Right: Chip Somodevilla, Left: Kari Lake Media File/Right: Getty Image, Left: Kari Lake Media File
Newsweek has contacted the Gallego campaign via email for comment, and the Lake campaign via online form.
In another blow for Lake, a recent poll taken by Marist College between September 19 to 24 shows her with a significantly higher unfavorability rating compared to Gallego. Per the Maris College poll, Gallego’s unfavorability rating is 35 percent, but Lake’s is 16 points higher at 51 percent.
This may be due to Lake having higher name recognition in Arizona. Seventeen percent of Marist College poll respondents had not heard of Gallego or did not know how to rate him, compared to only 10 percent who felt the same about Lake.
This is not Lake’s first race in Arizona, as she ran for Governor in 2022. Lake lost narrowly to Katie Hobbs, who won 50.3 percent of the vote compared to Lake’s 49.6.
Newsweek has also reported that Gallego is out-fundraising Lake three to one. Reporting from OpenSecrets, a nonprofit that tracks fundraising record, shows Gallego’s fundraising at $32 million, while Lake has brought in $10.2 million.
The polling difference between Lake and Gallego stands in stark contrast to the presidential poll, which shows Trump leading Harris 50 percent to 48 percent.
The Fox News poll demonstrates that many voters are planning on splitting their ticket, with Independents being 16 points more likely to back Gallego but not Harris, and Republicans saying that they’re 10 points more likely to go for Gallego, but not vote for Harris.
Only three percent of voters said they’re voting for Lake and Harris.
Harris was briefly ahead of Trump in the swing state in August 2024, at 50 percent to 49 percent. However, the poll has now flipped back in Trump’s favor.
Per Fox, these polling results are all within the margin of error.
Newsweek has contacted the Trump and Harris campaigns via email for comment.
Trump leads Harris 52 percent to 45 percent on the question of which candidate would make the country safer. He also leads her 53 percent to 45 percent on the economy, and 56 percent to 41 percent on the border.
Harris leads Trump by two points 50 percent to 48 percent, in being seen to help the middle class, and 56 points to 41 points on abortion.
In Arizona, abortion has largely bipartisan support, with over 70 percent of Fox News poll respondents saying they support the “proposed state constitutional amendment that would establish the right to an abortion up until fetal viability or when necessary to protect the patient’s health.”
This amendment is even popular among Republicans. Fifty percent of Republican respondents said they support this measure, compared to 46 percent of Republican respondents who said they do not.
Former Obama speech writers John Favreau and Jon Lovett hypothesized about this on their podcast, Pod Save America, on September 24.
Lovett said: “There’s a bunch of people telling pollsters they’re in favor of abortion rights and they’re voting for Ruben Gallego but they’re either voting for Trump or still not sure who they’re going to vote for.”
Favreau responded: “You can see voters thinking to themselves that, ‘I like Trump but I’m pro choice and I could have Trump as President and protect the right to choose in Arizona.'”
They both agreed that the polls appear to show voters both protecting their right to choose through the Senate race and protecting their wallets with a vote for Trump.
Donald Trump, speaking at a campaign event in Tucson Arizona on September 12, 2024. Trump is currently polling two points ahead of Harris in Arizona, according to a new Fox News poll.
Donald Trump, speaking at a campaign event in Tucson Arizona on September 12, 2024. Trump is currently polling two points ahead of Harris in Arizona, according to a new Fox News poll.
Justin Sullivan/Getty images
The phenomenon of the Democratic Senate candidate polling far ahead of Harris can be seen similarly in other swing states with a senate election on the ballot. Nevada, where Trump and Harris are one point apart, with Harris at 50 points to 49 points per a TIPP Insights poll from September 23 to 25, has a much less narrow senate race.
In Nevada, the Democrat incumbent, Jackie Rosen, leads Republican challenger Sam Brown by 47 percentage points to 38, per a 2018 poll from Redfield & Wilton Strategies.
Pennsylvania has a wider margin in favor of Harris, as she currently sits at 51 percent to Trump’s 46 percent, per a Morning Consult poll taken between September 19 to 25. This appears to be a new development, as a Susquehanna Polling & Research poll taken between September 16 and 22 found the candidates to be neck and neck.
However, the Senate race is even further apart, with the Democratic incumbent, Bob Casey, polling at eight points ahead of his Republican challenger, Dave McCormick.
Harris is also three points ahead of Trump in Michigan, per Morning Consult, but Democratic Senate Candidate Elissa Slotkin is nine points ahead of her Republican opponent Mike Rogers, according to Redfield & Wilson Strategies.
Additionally, Wisconsin has a five-point gap lead between the incumbent Democrat Tammy Baldwin and Republican challenger Eric Hovde, per a Redfield & Wilton Strategies poll, but only a three-point lead of Harris above Trump, per Morning Consult.
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Publish date : 2024-09-27 01:54:00
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