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Former President Donald Trump is maintaining his narrow lead over Vice President Kamala Harris in Arizona presidential polls this week.
There are two weeks until Election Day on Nov. 5, and early voting in Arizona has been underway since the second week in October.
Two top issues driving Trump’s advantage in Arizona are the economy and immigration, while voters who are concerned about democracy are more likely to say they’re voting for Harris, polling shows.
Week after week, the presidential race in Arizona shows up as a dead heat in most public polls, indicating that the race could be very close next month. Trump lost Arizona by his narrowest margin of any state in 2020, losing to President Joe Biden by fewer than 11,000 votes.
What do the latest polls say?
Trump had a slight lead over Harris among likely voters, according to a trio of Arizona polls released over the past week.Trump was ahead of Harris by 3 percentage points among likely Arizona voters in a new CBS News/YouGov poll. Trump had 51% of support in the poll and Harris had 48% of support.
YouGov surveyed 1,439 registered voters in Arizona from Oct. 11-16. The poll’s margin of error is plus or minus 3.3 percentage points.
Trump had a similar lead in a Washington Post-Schar School poll of swing state voters. Trump led Harris by 3 percentage points among likely Arizona voters in that survey, garnering 49% of support to Harris’ 46%.
The poll surveyed 580 voters in Arizona as part of a larger swing state survey of 5,016 voters in seven states from Sept. 30-Oct. 15. The margin of error for the Arizona results was plus or minus 5 percentage points.
Trump led Harris narrowly in another swing state poll conducted by Redfield & Wilton Strategies and The Telegraph. Trump had 48% of support, and Harris had 46% of support among Arizona likely voters, landing Trump’s lead over Harris at 2 percentage points.
Redfield & Wilton Strategies polled 9,667 voters across 10 states from Oct. 12-14. The pollster did not say how many Arizonans were surveyed.
What has changed?
Immigration is a far more salient issue in this year’s election compared to the presidential race four years ago, while the economy has remained a top issue for voters from 2020 to 2024.
In 2020, issues that Arizona voters named a “big factor” as they cast their ballots included the economy, the COVID-19 pandemic, health care, the Supreme Court and race and race relations, according to a CBS News poll from October of that year.Four years later, Arizona voters named the economy and problems at the southern border as major factors as they decide between Harris and Trump.
Voters who feel immigrants have improved life in Arizona or haven’t had much impact are more likely to support Harris, while voters who say immigrants from Mexico and Latin America have made life worse support Trump, according to the poll. Eighty-six percent of Trump voters say recent immigrants have made life worse in the state, while more than half of Harris voters (58%) say they have had no impact.
Although Harris has shifted to the right on immigration and even came to the Arizona-Mexico border to discuss her border security plan, more than half of likely Arizona voters believe border crossings will increase if she is elected, the CBS News/YouGov poll found.
In contrast, more than two-thirds of voters said they think border crossings would decrease under Trump, who has promised to initiate mass deportations if he returns to the White House.
What else should voters know?
Harris has an advantage on the issue of democracy, according to the CBS News/YouGov poll. Harris has support from 57% of voters who say democracy is a major factor in their vote and is ahead of Trump by 15 percentage points with that group.
The only issue Harris has a wider margin against Trump is abortion: 73% of voters who name it as a major issue plan to vote for Harris.
Trump and Harris voters are split on how they perceive Arizona elections. Although there is no evidence of widespread fraud in the 2020 election, more than half of Trump voters say they are “not very confident” in Arizona’s election system.
Taking it a step further, 47% of Trump voters said they believe the former president should challenge the election results if Harris wins. Slightly more Trump voters, 49%, say he should accept the results no matter who wins.
On the other side of the aisle, more than three-quarters of Harris voters (82%) say she should accept the election result regardless of the outcome.
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Publish date : 2024-10-22 10:15:00
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