Trump has the lead over Harris in final Arizona polls. The question is by how much

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Former President Donald Trump is on track to win Arizona, the battleground he lost four years ago by the narrowest margin in the country, according to a final round of presidential polls released just before Election Day.

Trump is in a contentious battle against Vice President Kamala Harris in Arizona. The southwestern swing state has 11 electoral votes up for grabs on Tuesday.

As the election loomed, Trump maintained his lead over Harris in the latest Arizona polls. It's an advantage that data show is driven by a wide gender gap and by voters who hold pessimistic views about the economy, immigration and the direction of the country.

The flurry of pre-election surveys all found Trump leading the race, although only one found the former president outside its margin of error. The rest showed a toss-up contest that's nearly as close as a coin flip in the lead up to Election Day.

Both campaigns are bracing for a tight race on Tuesday night. Trump lost to President Joe Biden here by fewer than 11,000 votes in 2020, and candidates won statewide races by similarly thin margins in the most recent 2022 election.

What do the latest polls say? Trump has a four percentage point lead over Harris in Arizona, according to a poll by The New York Times and Siena College. Trump had 49% of support among likely Arizona voters in that survey and Harris had 45%, the survey found.

The poll, which had a plus or minus 3.4 percentage point margin of error, was conducted Oct. 25-Nov. 2 and surveyed 1,025 voters.

Other pollsters who released results this week found a closer race within the margins of error of their surveys. Still, most had Trump leading.

Trump was ahead by a single percentage point in a survey from Noble Predictive Insights, within the poll’s margin of error. Trump had 48% of support among likely voters and Harris had 47%.

The poll surveyed 775 likely Arizona voters from Oct. 28-30 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5%.

Trump was leading Harris (50% to 47%) within the margin of error in a poll conducted by the GOP firm OnMessage for Semafor.

Trump had a two-point edge in the latest Emerson College poll, which was conducted Oct. 30-Nov. 2. He led Harris 50% to 48% in that survey, which polled 900 likely Arizona voters and had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.2%.

Democratic pollster Data For Progress found a slightly tighter race, with Trump ahead of Harris 48% to 47% in its Oct. 25-30 survey. That result was well within the poll’s margin of error at plus or minus 3%. Data For Progress surveyed 1,079 likely voters in Arizona.

What has changed? The gender gap between Harris and Trump has widened significantly since September, according to monthly surveys conducted by the New York Times and Siena College.

The gap between men and women supporting Harris grew to 17 percentage points in the most recent poll, with 53% of likely women voters saying they back Harris and only 36% of likely men voters saying the same. In September, the gender gap was a bit closer. Forty percent of men likely to vote in Arizona supported Harris and 50% of women voters supported her.

Trump, meanwhile, had 58% of support from likely male voters in the late October, early November poll, gaining slightly from the 55% of support he had in September from that group. The number of women supporting Trump decreased slightly from September to October, 46% to 42%.

Men who are likely to vote in Arizona most often choose the economy as their top issue (26%), according to the Times’ latest poll of the state. The top answer among likely women voters was abortion, with 22% of women selecting it as their most important issue.

The gender gap was slightly narrower in the other polls. Noble Predictive Insights found Harris leading with women by 12 percentage points. The Emerson College poll found men breaking for Trump by seven points, 53% to 46%, and women breaking for Harris by two points.

What else should voters know? Although Trump, Harris and their most prominent endorsers have barnstormed Arizona in the final weeks of the race, the group of voters that was both likely to vote and up for grabs was relatively small.

Most likely Arizona voters made up their minds about who to vote for a long time ago, the New York Times poll found. More than two-thirds of the likely electorate said they made their choice “before the last few months.”

Only 2% of likely Arizona voters said they were still undecided in the final week before Election Day. A similarly small percentage – 4% – said they had made up their minds in the last few days or weeks.

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Trump has the lead over Harris in final Arizona polls. The question is by how much

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