New early voting data analysis from our US partner network NBC has revealed some interesting – and potentially crucial trends in two key swing states.
According to the figures, there are signs of an influx of new female Democratic voters in Pennsylvania and new male Republican voters in Arizona.
The early votes of new voters – voters who did not turn up at polling booths in 2020 – are of particular interest because they are votes that could change what happens in 2024 relative to the last presidential election.
Those who voted in 2020 and don’t do so this time are also important, but it’s impossible to know before the day of the election.
Already, the number of new voters in many of the seven closest battleground states exceeds the 2020 margin between Joe Biden and Donald Trump. In Pennsylvania, for example, Mr Biden beat Trump in 2020 by 80,555 votes. This year, over 100,000 new voters have already cast ballots in Pennsylvania, with more to come.
While we can’t know how these new voters voted, looking at who they are can provide hints about how 2024 might swing relative to 2020.
Party registration does not perfectly predict a voter’s choice, but new voters who choose to register as Democrats are more likely to vote for Kamala Harris than not, and new voters who register as Republicans are more likely to vote for Trump.
As a result, in the swing states where voters can formally register for a party (Arizona, Nevada, North Carolina and Pennsylvania), the new voters affiliated with a party may provide some hints about the 2024 election.
Pennsylvania is the closest state according to the polls, and the number of new voters who have cast ballots there has already exceeded the 2020 margin.
If everyone from 2020 voted for the same candidate again, these new voters would decide the race.
Pennsylvania
The data from Pennsylvania shows large differences in the number of votes cast by new voters, both by party registration and by gender. More new voters are registered Democrats than Republicans, and new female voters are driving this partisan gap.
The new male voters are only slightly more likely to be Democrats than Republicans, but among new female voters, Democrats outnumber Republicans nearly 2 to 1.
Arizona
Turning to Arizona, the opposite pattern emerges. While there are fewer new voters than in Pennsylvania – in part because early voting in Arizona started later – the 2020 margin in Arizona was also much smaller: only 10,457 votes.
Already, the number of new voters (86,231 as of Tuesday) is more than eight times the Biden-Trump margin in 2020 in Arizona. And the biggest share of that group of new voters in Arizona so far are male Republicans.
New female voters are also slightly more likely to be registered Republicans than Democrats in the state, unlike in Pennsylvania. But the Republican advantage in new Arizona voters so far is being driven largely by male voters.
Arizona carries 11 votes in the electoral college, while Pennsylvania has 19.
Most analysts have suggested that whoever wins in Pennsylvania is far more likely to win the election overall.
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Publish date : 2024-11-01 01:30:00
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