There’s no silver lining for the Democrats.
Donald Trump has won everywhere and he’s going to win the popular vote.
He did better across the demographics – growing his coalition with Black voters, Latinos, young voters.
The US became less racially divided by party.
Meanwhile, Kamala Harris underperformed Joe Biden virtually everywhere, as Trump improved on his 2020 margin in 2,367 counties.
His margin decreased in only 240 counties.
Why did Trump do so well?
Trump didn’t just sweep up in the swing states, and none of them are going to be that close.
He closed the gap on Harris in a tonne of blue states.
She turned out anaemic victories in New York, New Jersey, Rhode Island and Minnesota, while he expanded his margins in red states to take generationally big victories in Florida and Iowa.
He flipped Miami Dade county, winning a heavily Latino county Hillary Clinton won by 30 points by 10 in 2016.
He drove down Harris margins in big urban centres everywhere, including Chicago, New York and Austin.
What did the Democrats do wrong?
Biden stayed too longLack of primary process meaning that Democrats were denied opportunity to pick someone not associated with Biden-Harris administration – which also denied them an opportunity to properly develop a message Afghanistan withdrawal (Biden’s polling never recovered)Too much (somewhat) inflationary stimulus spending during COVIDThe handling of Israel’s war in Gaza Long-term attrition in ethnic minority voter base without corresponding improvements with white votersTrump’s enduring political appeal and Democrats’ confusion as to how to deal with him.
How bad a loss is this?
This feels a far more devastating loss for the Democrats than in 2016.
In that year they had plenty of things to console them – a massive popular vote victory, a narrow electoral college loss in a few places, a rock solid ethnic minority coalition which looked like a solid electoral map of the future.
Roe vs Wade was intact and the Supreme Court was still balanced.
They have none of that now.
Instead, they’re staring down the barrel of a transformed Republican Party and a sustained inability to know how to deal with Trump and MAGAism.
In policy terms, they also have nowhere to go.
In Biden’s term, they governed exactly in line with their own instincts – and it’s been soundly rejected by the electorate.
What does it mean for Trump?
This victory cements Trump’s position as the pivotal American political figure this century.
Biden thought he would be the restoration of the old order – but Trump has ensured that he was the last gasp of it.
The Republican Party is now permanently MAGA and the Democrats will change too – the old liberal order isn’t coming back.
Economic policy will be more protectionist in every direction, both parties more isolationist, politics more aggressive, and the Democrats less likely to pick history-making candidates.
Politics will look more like Trump in the future, not least as his movement now has a natural heir and successor in JD Vance, a young ambitious VP.
Meanwhile, the Democrats have no obvious leaders at all.
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Publish date : 2024-11-06 00:35:00
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