With just 38 days to go, US elections remain very very close battle to call. Even as the latest opinion polls indicate a neck on neck battle between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump, the popular vote scales are titled in Democrat’s favour. However, in reality, the popular vote does not determine the outcome; it all comes down to the electoral votes, highlighting the significance of swing states.
Watch out for the five swing states that will decide the US election 20024(Getty Images via AFP)
In 2024 race to the White House polarisation in the seven swing state is narrowing and now limited to five states. In 2020, all four of these states gave a very narrow margin of victory to Joe Biden and now Donald Trump hopes to reclaim the throne from the Democrats by making significant moves here.
Also Read: Kamala vs Trump: Road to 270 explained
Battle for Arizona: Tables are turning
With 11 electoral votes, Arizona is tied for the 14th-most electoral votes among states and is considered one of the key battlegrounds that could decide the election. In 2020, President Joe Biden, narrowly, became the first Democrat to beat a Republican presidential candidate in Arizona since former President Bill Clinton in 1996.
Now a Fox News poll shows Trump leading Harris by 3 percentage points, however, Last month Harris was leading the race in the state by 1 point. Trump’s gain is being aided to bold shift in sentiments among Hispanic voters and women voters. Under 30-year old voters are also moving towards Trump.
According to NY Times/Siene Poll, Harris is trailing Trump 45 percent to 50, as compared to August, when 49 percent opted for Harris over Trump (45).
Battle for Georgia: It’s advantage Trump
Georgia, with 16 electoral votes, is a historically red state that Trump must win. In 2020 he lost the state to Joe Biden by only 12,000 votes which costed him the presidency. In the current opinion polls former president is edging his counterpart by 49 percent to 45 percent. Last month poll showed the pair tied at 47 percent each. Meanwhile, Harris is hoping that a surge of turnout from her supporters in and around Atlanta would help her win the state.
“It is whiter states, like Michigan and Wisconsin, where Harris appears to be polling stronger, while more diverse states (like Georgia) are leaning slightly Trump’s way,” claims an NYT analysis.
Battle for Wisconsin: Kamala has an edge, but Trump won’t let go
On the other hand Wisconsin with 10 electoral votes should be a cake walk for Kamala Harris. According to NYT polling average she enjoys a two-percentage-point leads in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin. If she bags all three along with Nebraska, the presidency is hers.
Wisconsin was another close call state in the 2020 polls with electoral college giving Biden an edge close to 21,000 votes. As Trump is in no mood to let the state get away, do expect a dramatic overturn in the coming weeks. Michigan too is critical, too, though it has a recent history of friendliness to Democrats, who performed well there in the 2022 midterms and in the 2020 election.
Battle for North Carolina: Can the red state turn blue?
For Trump to enter the White House he needs Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Georgia. Yet, the red state of North Carolina with 16 electoral votes has been showing its blue wings recently.
Even though a Democratic presidential candidate hasn’t won North Carolina since Barack Obama did in 2008, NYT polling average indicates Trump’s lead is less than one percentage point. The recent controversy surrounding, Trump endorsed Mark Robinson, the Republican gubernatorial candidate calling himself a Black Nazi can dampen the mood further.
Battle for Pennsylvania: The match clincher
Pennsylvania – the biggest swing state, with the highest stakes remains the most exciting battle to be tracked in 2024. It’s where both Kamala and Trump have pumped in the maximum effort and funds. $138 million in airtime has been bought in the state until the Election Day, according to AdImpact.
With 19 electoral votes, Pennsylvania is crucial to call the US election. Last time Biden won it by a margin of 1.6% but in 2016 Trump clinched it by close to 0.7%. Whereas previous to that the state voted Obama to power in two consecutive elections.
Current polls show Harris and Trump in a close race at 48% and 46%, respectively. According to Nate Silver, the founder of ABC’s FiveThirtyEight, Pennsylvania has a 33 percent chance of tipping the election this year. Harris’ lead is a bit more than one point in Pennsylvania, which “is the most important tipping point state, states Silver.
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Publish date : 2024-09-27 03:33:00
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