Back in March, Donald Trump said 15 million migrants had crossed the United States border over two years.
By August that number was down to 10 million since President Biden took office, then back up to 15 million.
In more recent rallies, it’s topped 20 million.
While federal agencies keep varying totals for migration figures, the former President does not tend to cite his sources for the changing number.
Trump and the GOP have argued repeatedly during the 2024 presidential election campaign that his border policies were stronger and that Biden has allowed a wave of illegal migrants to enter the U.S., often adding that many go on to commit violent crimes.
Experts, and the data they collect and examine, appear to counter the idea that more than 10 million — much less 20 million — immigrants have arrived since 2021.
“At a minimum, they’re misusing statistics,” David Bier, director of immigration studies at the libertarian Cato Institute, told Newsweek.
“I think they’re invented. It’s a bunch of overheated rhetoric and not based on reality.”
Republican presidential candidate, former U.S. President Donald Trump speaks while holding a document about illegal immigration during a visit to the Livingston County Sheriff’s Office on August 20, 2024 in Howell, Michigan. Trump has used…
Republican presidential candidate, former U.S. President Donald Trump speaks while holding a document about illegal immigration during a visit to the Livingston County Sheriff’s Office on August 20, 2024 in Howell, Michigan. Trump has used varying statistics on illegal immigration as part of his election campaign.
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Nic Antaya/Getty Images
So how many migrants have arrived in the US?
Bier, who worked as an advisor to Republican Representative Raúl Labrador between 2013 and 2015, said that some of the confusion likely came from U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) figures on border crossings.
From October 2020 through last month, there have been 10.6 million “encounters” by border patrol officers, with over eight million of those happening at the southwest border with Mexico. Between 2017 and 2020, the four years of Trump’s presidency, that number was just over three million.
An encounter, as defined by the CBP, includes people attempting to enter the country or apprehended trying to cross the border without inspection, either crossing between ports of entry or arriving without an appointment or proper documentation.
The majority of those arriving at the border and crossing illegally, however, will be deported or detained pending immigration hearings.
“They go home on their own huge numbers, they leave voluntarily because America didn’t actually turn out to be as welcoming as they thought it was going to be,” Bier added.
Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) statistics show over 339,000 removals from October 2020 through February 2024. More than 121,000 have been put on repatriation flights since early June 2024.
Economist Jed Kolko wrote in a Substack newsletter last week that part of the confusion over border numbers has to do with a discrepancy between government agencies on immigration and population statistics.
Over the past year, the Census Bureau said net migration was 1.1 million in 2023, while the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office put that number at 3.3 million. Kolko said this was because different collections methods are used.
“Surveys might undercount immigrants, especially recent immigrants, and especially if they live in temporary or short-term housing,” he wrote. “In contrast, administrative data could overstate migration if the same migrant is encountered at the border multiple times.”
The latest statistics from the Census Bureau, released early September, showed the share of the U.S. population, both legal and illegal, rose by three million between 2020 and 2023. The total immigrant population was thought to be 47.8 million, which includes the millions of immigrants living and working in the U.S. with legal status.
That number, which is lower than estimates laid out by the bureau in 2017, has not been the one used by Trump in his recent speeches. At one point during his debate with Vice President Kamala Harris, the former president claimed 21 million were crossing the border every month.
Latest monthly figures for August 2024 showed that around 58,000 people were encountered by CBP officers, down 68 percent year-over-year.
Changing trends in how migrants arrive
Another GOP claim has been that the Biden administration is now flying illegal immigrants into the country, bypassing the southwest border.
Those arriving by plane are Cubans, Haitians, Nicaraguans and Venezuelans, who are allowed to come in under the Advance Travel Authorization program, which gives noncitizens for certain countries the ability to request permission to come to U.S. but requires strict vetting and a stateside sponsor.
Such parole programs have been used by many administrations, though Republicans say the Biden White House has been abusing the policy.
“Letting someone buy a plane ticket to America is not bringing them, importing them, flying them,” Bier said. “They’re doing it on their own. It’s their choice.
“It’s not a governmental importation program. So I think the framing is dishonest and inaccurate.”
Former US President and Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump speaks about immigration and border security near Coronado National Memorial in Montezuma Pass, Arizona, August 22, 2024. Border security has been a key feature for Trump…
Former US President and Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump speaks about immigration and border security near Coronado National Memorial in Montezuma Pass, Arizona, August 22, 2024. Border security has been a key feature for Trump over the last eight years of his campaigning and presidency.
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OLIVIER TOURON/AFP via Getty Images
While there have been changes in trends over the past five years — such as more migrants arriving from Latin America compared to Asia — migration levels have remained relatively steady, Kolko wrote.
The Cato Institute added in its analysis that the U.S. has seen its slowest immigrant population growth over the past decade since the 1960s, with much of that drop coming from a decline in arrivals from Africa and Asia.
Trump, however, has claimed that countries in Africa, as well as Latin America, have been emptying their jails and “insane asylums” to send those former inmates to the U.S.
Bier told Newsweek that it was easy to pick up on crimes committed by illegal immigrants to fit this narrative.
“What you don’t see is all the people who just mind their own business and go on with their peaceful way, working jobs,” he added.
Trump campaign doubles-down on border crisis
In recent weeks, the Trump campaign has pointed to issues around the notorious Venezuelan gang Tren de Aragua causing issues in Aurora, Colorado, as well as unfounded claims of migrants eating pets in Springfield, Ohio, as evidence of the need for a mass deportation policy.
On Friday, Trump promised that mass deportation plan, which has been questioned by those in his own party over its legality and feasability, would begin in these cities.
When asked where Trump was getting his numbers from and whether the former president was misleading voters on this issue, Karoline Leavitt, a campaign spokesperson, dodged the question, telling Newsweek the Republican candidate was the only one who would secure the border.
“Kamala Harris was named the Border Czar by Joe Biden and has been an epic failure at her job, directly overseeing the worst illegal immigration invasion crisis in history,” Leavitt said in a statement.
A person holds a sign that reads “Mass Deportation Now” and “Make America Strong Again” on the third day of the Republican National Convention at the Fiserv Forum on July 17, 2024 in Milwaukee, Wisconsin.
A person holds a sign that reads “Mass Deportation Now” and “Make America Strong Again” on the third day of the Republican National Convention at the Fiserv Forum on July 17, 2024 in Milwaukee, Wisconsin.
Leon Neal/Getty Images
“If dangerously liberal Kamala is President, our border will remain wide open to terrorists and criminals from around the world who will face no consequence for committing heinous migrant crimes, as Kamala has said she wants to decriminalize illegal immigration and has long supported soft-on-crime policies allowing violent criminals out of jail,” Leavitt continued.
“The border bloodbath will get bloodier, and more Americans will lose their lives.”
Bier, the Cato analyst, said that, in some ways, inflating immigration numbers could diminish Trump’s claims of high migrant crime rates, because a much larger migrant population would suggest they were committing “vanishingly few crimes” in the country.
It would also mean far fewer children were being born, per capita, while pressures on public services by migrants would be less than it’s made out to be.
“It misleads people into thinking that something totally extraordinary is happening, when it’s not,” Bier said.
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Publish date : 2024-09-18 05:56:00
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