Editor’s note: Saturday Down South’s annual Crystal Ball series continues today with Arkansas. We’ll go in alphabetical order through the 16-team SEC.
There wasn’t enough cold beer in the great state of Arkansas to get through 2023. In the words of the Arkansas native and diehard Razorback fan Justin Moore, “that’s why we drink.”
(I love country music and Moore specifically, but I do think that there are other ways to deal with your problems besides alcohol. I was just referencing Sam Pittman’s affinity for a responsible, cold beer after a victory. Carry on.)
But yeah, you get it. Last year was painful. A bounce-back season, it was not. Two new coordinators didn’t result in anything but frustration.
Well, the Florida game was cool. Other than that, it was mostly pain and frustration in 2023. It was fair to speculate about Pittman’s future. AD Hunter Yurachek came out and gave Pittman a vote of confidence last November, which was the result of the legwork that he did rebuilding the program after Chad Morris came and went.
So now, Pittman is tasked with his own cleanup job to get a Year 6. Is it a mess? Or is it just a team that had bad luck with a 1-5 mark in 1-score games?
Let’s dig into it with Arkansas’ 2024 Crystal Ball:
Welcome back, Robert Patrick Petrino
I’m giddy that Petrino is back at Arkansas. The neck brace legend returned to Fayetteville to rebuild the offense after the Dan Enos experiment went up in flames. So now, the question is whether Petrino can save the program that’s been largely disappointing since his exit.
Petrino improved Texas A&M’s offense by nearly 11 points per game even though injuries forced the Aggies to start 3 quarterbacks multiple games. In other words, he’s still got it. That bodes well for his handpicked transfer portal quarterback Taylen Green.
Already, Green established himself as one of Arkansas’ leaders. He was named the starter coming out of spring ball and he represented the team at SEC Media Days. Can he cut down on mistakes and provide the consistency that last year’s group lacked? That remains to be seen.
Related: Looking to make a bet on the 2024 Heisman Trophy? SDS has you covered with all the latest odds!
With Petrino back, there’s optimism that Arkansas’ offense will be the best version of itself. That’s also partially because Pittman promised to have a more hands-on approach with the offensive line, which was atypically horrendous in 2023. Pittman got the job in large part because of his background as one of the top offensive line coaches in the sport. If nothing else, that area figures to see at least some improvement.
Pittman admitted that he has Petrino in his office more than anyone. Ego isn’t a concern, especially after Pittman had a former SEC coach like Barry Odom on his staff for his first 3 seasons. More pressing is putting up points consistently against a schedule that doesn’t have much room for error.
If Petrino can aid in that effort, his return to Fayetteville will become one of the biggest storylines in the SEC.
As disappointing as 2023 was, the defense improved
Let’s not forget that Arkansas showed the year-to-year defensive improvement it desperately needed. Granted, it didn’t fuel a bowl berth. It did, however, confirm that Travis Williams was the right man for the job after coming over from UCF. With some relatively low expectations, the Hogs improved by:
107.6 yards/game
0.78 yards/play
2.7 points/game
91.9 passing yards/game
Arkansas also went from being dead last in the SEC — and tied for worst in FBS — in 20-yard passes allowed to finishing No. 2 in the SEC. It was a better group, but when you’re that bad offensively, there’s only so much that can be done. Seeing at least some signs of life was encouraging.
Landon Jackson was the breakout star of the Razorback defense, and he made the surprising decision to return for another season. He’ll need help behind him, which could come from Georgia transfer Xavian Sorey, who has earned rave reviews in camp so far. Hard-hitting Tennessee transfer Doneiko Slaughter could be a big part of that, as well. Some year-to-year staff continuity should benefit those non-transfer pieces.
Any path to Arkansas getting back on track with a 7-win season includes the Hogs being at least a middle-of-the-pack SEC defense. That’ll be easier said than done.
Game-by-game predictions
Week 1: vs. Arkansas Pine-Bluff (in Little Rock) (W)
Some positive vibes will be had for the new-look offense. Unfortunately, those positive vibes won’t be had in Fayetteville just yet, but that’s another topic for another time.
Week 2: at Oklahoma State (L)
Stopping Ollie Gordon II might be easier if Mike Gundy does indeed give him 50 carries in the opener as “punishment” for his DUI arrest. Alternatively, maybe a gassed Gordon is still good enough to break off chunks of yardage and keep Arkansas at an arm’s length in Stillwater. A 45-24 Oklahoma State victory serves as a reminder that Arkansas is still a work in progress.
Week 3: vs. UAB (W)
I have a weird feeling that the Alex Mortensen reunion will be trickier than expected. The UAB OC/former Arkansas quarterback will make this a true dogfight. But this is where we see Pittman’s impact in restoring that offensive line. Ja’Quinden Jackson takes over in the second half to help the Hogs avoid Trent Dilfer’s upset bid.
Week 4: at Auburn (L)
It’s unfair to default to that matchup in Fayetteville last year and just copy and paste the same result … but how can we ignore that? Even the lesser version of Payton Thorne cleared out the Arkansas faithful by halftime, why can’t my projected improved version have plenty of success at Jordan-Hare? Arkansas turnovers allow Auburn to get out to a multi-score lead early that it doesn’t look back from.
Week 5: vs. Texas A&M in Dallas (L)
You know the history. A&M owns Arkansas with 11 of 12 wins since the former joined the SEC, but not in an “it’s over when they step on the field” sort of way. But it’s a “that pivotal play will go A&M’s way” sort of … way. Both fan bases know that. So what happens this time around? A Shemar Turner strip-sack of Green turns a 24-21 game into a 2-score game, which everyone in the building senses as the pivotal play. Even with a new coach added to the mix, Arkansas-A&M plays out in an extremely familiar fashion.
Week 6: vs. Tennessee (W)
This is the game that reminds everyone that if you’re not ready for an SEC road game, you’re in trouble. Tennessee, following an emotional loss to Oklahoma, falls victim to that. This is the game that Arkansas fans have been waiting to see from Green. He connects with Luke Hasz and Andrew Armstrong at will against an overmatched Tennessee secondary. Jackson and Arkansas make it a frustrating day for Nico Iamaleava and the high-powered Tennessee offense. The Hogs avoid that dreaded 2-4 start while Tennessee suffers consecutive losses for just the third time in the Josh Heupel era.
Week 7: Bye
Week 8: vs. LSU (L)
After Hasz torched LSU in Death Valley last year, Brian Kelly sells out to stop the emerging tight end. That leads to Green trying to take a few too many chances into double coverage, and an up-and-down LSU defense gets some much-needed turnovers on the road. It’s another down-to-the-wire game that LSU doesn’t take control of until the middle of the 4th quarter. The Battle for the Golden Boot goes to the visitors, who take the boot back to Baton Rouge.
Week 9: at Mississippi State (W)
Revenge game? Revenge game. To be clear, I’m referring to the revenge that all of us spectators deserve after watching these 2 teams play last year. A high-scoring thriller unfolds this year, which ends with Green leading a go-ahead drive in the final 2 minutes. Mississippi State’s bid for its first SEC win of the Jeff Lebby era comes up short while Pittman gets a much-needed win to keep bowl hopes alive.
Week 10: vs. Ole Miss (L)
In another possible opportunity to change the course of the season with a juicy home matchup, Arkansas comes up short against a well-rounded Ole Miss squad. Against his former team, Chris Paul Jr. has an SEC Defensive Player of the Week performance. He records multiple sacks and forces a fumble in what turns out to be a frustrating day for the Arkansas offense.
Week 11: Bye
Week 12: vs. Texas (L)
Remember when these teams faced off 3 years ago? Things have changed a bit since that night. The Longhorns are no longer a pushover team in the trenches while Arkansas is no longer the on-the-rise program. That’s evident in this matchup, which sees Arch Manning get the start for the injured Quinn Ewers. Manning shakes off a slow start and has his best performance to date to avoid a repeat of 2021. A blowout Texas win spells trouble for the Pittman era.
Week 13: vs. Louisiana Tech (W)
After Yurachek announces that Pittman won’t be returning in 2025, Arkansas plays its most complete game of the season with him serving as a lame-duck coach. A 49-7 beatdown of Louisiana Tech keeps bowl hopes alive in Pittman’s final home game as Arkansas’ coach.
Week 14: at Mizzou (L)
Mizzou’s Playoff hopes might be dashed, but preventing Arkansas from reaching the postseason is still a priority for Eli Drinkwitz’s squad. That means unloading the full offensive arsenal in what’s Luther Burden III and Brady Cook’s final home game. Those 2 put on a show. There’s not a defensive matchup that Arkansas can throw at Mizzou that makes a difference. Unlike last year, Arkansas has an offensive pulse, but a 1-dimensional attack in the 4th quarter leads to timely Mizzou sacks in a 42-31 victory for the Tigers.
2024 Projection: 5-7 (2-6), 14th in SEC
12-team Playoff berth? No
A 5-win season means 1 thing — Pittman is gone. It’s as simple as that. He might be the single most likable coach in the sport, but you don’t survive 3 consecutive disappointing seasons as an SEC head coach.
Let’s be clear. Pittman should always be remembered for what he did after replacing Morris. Arkansas will still be in a better place than what he inherited. But Pittman’s successor will become the big storyline in November when it’s clear that the Hogs are still stuck in neutral.
Who becomes the next target? Could UTSA’s Jeff Traylor or Texas State’s GJ Kinne make sense? Or will Yurachek go with another off-the-radar candidate to fill the vacancy? It’d be fascinating to see what sort of momentum Petrino has if he rebuilds the Arkansas offense this year. You can bet plenty of Razorback fans would advocate for him to return to the role that he left in disgrace.
A wild season could be in store for the Hogs.
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Publish date : 2024-08-13 01:00:00
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