Colorado’s 2024 ballot is very crowded. Will voters fill out every bubble?

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Presidential races typically drive turnout. But Colorado voters have plenty of other reasons to fill out their ballots this year, including statewide measures that would affect everything from abortion rights to mountain lion hunting to the way we vote, potentially defying conventional thinking about voter behavior.

Take Seth Stern, a federally registered firearms dealer and unaffiliated voter from Granby who for 25 years has refused to vote for Republicans or Democrats in a U.S. presidential election and likely will choose a third-party option this year.

It’s the local issues, not who will occupy the White House for the next four years, that keep him showing up.

“For most rural and non-left-leaning Colorado voters, state and county government are the only levels where your voice matters,” he argued. So the 45-year-old, who is running for a seat on the Granby Board of Trustees, plans to vote on every state ballot measure and a Grand County measure proposing to increase a lodging tax, along with all the state and local races in his community.

With 14 state measures and, depending on the voter’s home address, as many as a dozen local ones, some political experts worry that voter fatigue will set in before people reach the bottom of the ballot. But in Colorado this year, campaigns are hoping those down-ballot questions — and the emotionally charged campaigns around them — will excite voters enough to get them to fill in an oval for every question and race, including retention of dozens of judges.

Who votes, how and why Data from the Secretary of State’s Office shows Colorado voter turnout surges during presidential elections and slumps during primaries and midterms.

In 2020, a presidential election year, the rate of active voter turnout in Colorado was 87%, but only around two-thirds of active voters showed up for the midterm election in 2022.

“Presidential election years bring out more voters because voters and the political media pay far more attention to national politics than to state or local politics,” said Seth Masket, a professor of political science and the director of the Center on American Politics at the University of Denver.

But high-interest ballot issues with substantial funding also draw voters to the polls outside of presidential years, said Matt Childers, a political scientist who examined how citizen-initiated ballot measures affect voter turnout and wrote about it in a 2012 paper.

Ballot issues are generally more attractive to voters in a nonpresidential year “because there’s nothing else going on,” he said. “But that doesn’t mean in a presidential year they don’t matter. It’s just they’re going to matter on the margins, and it’s harder for those campaigns to really break through.”

Here are five of the 14 statewide ballot measures The Colorado Sun and Childers agreed could be the most likely to break through to the largest number of voters.

Proposition 127, which would prohibit hunting mountain lions, bobcats or lynxProposition KK, which would impose a 6.5% excise tax on the sale of guns and ammunition to fund support for crime victims, mental and behavioral health programs for children and veterans, and school security programsAmendment 79, which would prevent the legislature from limiting abortion access in Colorado and repeal a provision in the state constitution prohibiting state dollars from being used to pay for abortionsAmendment J, which would remove the provision of the Colorado constitution saying only a marriage between a man and woman can be legally recognized by the state Proposition 131, which would change most of the state’s primaries so candidates from all parties run against each other, with the top four vote-getters advancing to a ranked choice voting general election Voters surely care about the other nine ballot measures, to varying degrees. And one analyst says how they do vote could provide an interesting look at where Colorado voters are and how “blue” Colorado is. But that won’t become clear until November, when results will show who voted for what and how many voted to the end of the ballot.

Closing or widening the urban-rural divide: mountain lions and guns Two of the five ballot measures The Sun chose coincided with the two topping Stern’s list.

Both 127 and KK, he said, “fall under what I see as the cultural struggle that’s taking place between a supermajority and the urban center of the state deciding that they really know better how people should be living.”

He’ll vote no on Proposition 127, “because the people who introduced it are putting their own values ahead of what Colorado Parks and Wildlife has been able to do from the time they took over management of mountain lions,” he said. “The population has flourished, and yet they have decided that starving to death or being shot in an encounter with a human in a nonhunting environment is somehow superior to being hunted with dogs.”

Craig Childs, an author and former hunter who lives in southwestern Colorado, said he’s voting yes on 127. “Current cat hunting is based on flawed policy and little connection to biology. This would give us a chance to reassess, see what cats do when not hunted and come back with a more sound policy when the hunting questions come up again.”

Michelle Hughes, right, answers questions at the conclusion of a reproductive rights rally sponsored by the Harris-Walz campaign Oct. 7 at the Union Depot in Pueblo. (Mike Sweeney, Special to The Colorado Sun) Chris Keating, a political strategist and owner of Keating Research, a Democratic political firm in Colorado, said he hasn’t heard much about 127 in San Miguel County, where he lives, nor does he think the measure will draw a crush of people to the ballot. But that’s not because they don’t care about it, he said. “I just think the people that are super interested in talking about this issue are already voting. They may be county commissioners or something, or go to meetings. But these are people who are already in tune.”

Julie Marshall, who is leading the outreach campaign in support of 127, said she thinks neither camp has “punched through the consciousness of the majority of voters,” however. That could be good for her camp if they can reach more voters before Election Day and explain “this kind of hounding of lions and trapping of bobcats,” she said.

She isn’t worried about Proposition 127 being so far down on the ballot voters won’t get to it, though: “I opened my ballot this morning and it was at the top of page two.”

And if roadside signs are an indicator, 127 is getting far more traction among rural voters than Proposition 114, which in 2020 asked Colorado voters if the state should reintroduce wolves west of the Continental Divide. It passed by a razor-thin margin, at times hovering within hundreds of votes of an automatic recount. In the end, it passed 51% to 49% and lost in all rural counties.

“I think it’s because people have been so galvanized by wolf reintroduction and how badly that has gone thus far that they realize they need to be better organized and try to combat 127,” said state Sen. Dylan Roberts, a Democrat whose District 8 encompasses 10 counties including Grand and Summit, where wolves were introduced in December and roam today. He said he saw sign after sign opposing the measure along Colorado 9 and U.S. 40 between Frisco and Steamboat Springs during a drive he took Oct. 7.

Signs opposing Colorado Proposition 127, which would ban the hunting of mountain lions, bobcats and lynx, line Colorado 9 and U.S. 40 in Grand County. Proposition 127 has galvanized voters on both sides of the issue, including those who believe “ballot box biology,” in which citizens make wildlife management decisions through their votes, has no place in Colorado, and those who say there is no science backing up the need to manage mountain lion populations through hunting. (Jason Connolly, Special to The Colorado Sun) Dan Gates, one of 127’s biggest opponents, said even though he’s confident people will make the “right decision … given the length of the ballot, people making the right decision might come down to, do they really care about any of the issues or just check a box just to get it done and over with?”

Gates represents Front Range hunters on the Colorado Wildlife Council and is executive director of Coloradans for Responsible Wildlife Management, a lobbying group that advocates for mountain lion hunting and trapping of fur-bearing animals.

Proposition KK: throttling gun sales or funding health care? Stern says Proposition KK “is just another measure to throttle gun sales and gun ownership,” so he’s voting against it.

But Elizabeth Newman, public policy director at the Colorado Coalition Against Sexual Assault, said “what we know is that a lot of times in Colorado, guns are being used to end someone’s life in suicide or in domestic violence. If someone has a firearm accessible, it is much more likely that an attempt can be successful. Veteran suicide in Colorado is almost twice the national rate. Domestic violence deaths are increasing and are most often the result of the use of a gun. It’s our position that the industry profiting from guns (should) help address the costs and harm of gun violence.”

Stern countered with statistics searchable on the FBI’s National Instant Criminal Background Check System: 16.7 million firearms were sold in 2023, 443,800 of them in Colorado. Guns were blamed for 1,012 deaths in Colorado in 2023, including accidents, suicides and homicides. There were 44,862 total deaths in Colorado that year.

The Granby gun shop Stern owns struggles to compete with internet stores, which are often retailing at less than his low-volume wholesale, he said. He said he believes the 6.5% sales tax “is absolutely intended to crush as many small, independent gun stores as possible, and will yet again be another transfer of wealth under state Democrats from small business owners who are NOT making serious profits to major box stores and out of state vendors.”

“Now the exceedingly anti-small-business state government is going to throw 6.5% on top of what I’m charging and it’s magically going to get better?” he asked.

A bright pink piece of campaign literature placed in the credit card slot of a parking meter near the corner of 14th Street and Glenarm Place in downtown Denver urges voters to take a stance on Amendment 79. (Dana Coffield, The Colorado Sun) Not magically, according to Newman. “The services that would be funded through the tax would generate support for veterans dealing with mental health and substance use issues. For behavioral health crises in youth. For school safety and violence prevention efforts, and for services for domestic violence victims and other victims of crime.”

Groups that support women and children, like The Women’s Foundation of Colorado and The Colorado League of Women Voters, also support the measure. Meanwhile, Weld County commissioner Kevin Ross said many of his constituents oppose it. But Republican Sen. Cleave Simpson, whose District 6 encompasses nine “pretty politically balanced” counties in southwestern Colorado, said he hasn’t been asked about KK, “not once,” even though rural voters tend to favor measures supporting personal freedom including those related to gun ownership.

Lori Wiegel, principal at New Bridge Strategy, a Republican political firm, says she’s unclear which messages are resonating with voters.

“I think really dug-in partisans may just look at anything on guns and say, ‘I know exactly how I feel,’ no matter what the specifics are,” she said. “But there’s a whole group of people that are not that dug in, right? We have almost half of Colorado wanting to be unaffiliated with either party. (Maybe) they don’t have views on that issue. But they can parse things. And we also have a highly educated Colorado that does look at specifics, and does look up information and tries to figure out ‘how does this align with how I view the world?’”

Protecting access to abortion Keating said he expects Amendment 79 to draw out plenty of voters.

“There’s a large majority in Colorado, maybe 70%, who think abortion should be legal, but ever since Trump and his Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade, we’ve underestimated Democrats and their turnout in elections,” he said. “Every single time, they come out, so it actually is something that brings out progressives, people who believe in womens’ rights.”

Alison Friedman Phillips, director of programs, policy and philanthropy at The Women’s Foundation of Colorado, thinks he could be right.

Polling by Global Strategy Group, a Democratic political firm, in 2022 showed Colorado women overwhelmingly support access to abortion.

The amendment would prevent the legislature from limiting abortion access in Colorado. It would also repeal a provision in the state constitution prohibiting state dollars from being used to pay for abortions.

And Phillips says the foundation helps voters identify ballot issues that “will really advance gender, racial and economic equity at the state level.” They do this through events, civic engagement resources on their website, media partners, lawn signs and their voter guide, the Womanifesto, centered on women and children.

But even people who are fully politically engaged are a bit overwhelmed.

Recently, Phillips looked at her 2024 state ballot guide, known as the “blue book,” stacked next to her Denver ballot information booklet and her ballot, and thought, “oh my gosh,” the three are “historically long and understandably a lot for voters to digest.”

“That being said, what we’re hearing and seeing from the people close to us is that they are really motivated to protect women’s progress and ensure economic freedoms and are really voting with women in mind.”

Fortunately, Coloradans have the luxury of digesting their voting materials from the comfort of their home, she added. Still, she does wonder how many will take the time to fill out their entire ballot.

Numerous measures to limit abortion access in Colorado have failed, but opponents of 79 are mobilized, and droves of them will mark the “no” box, said Marcie Little, executive director at Coloradans for the Protection of Women and Children, “because anyone who is pro-life will vote against it.”

“Pro-life people are already unhappy that abortion is legal for all nine months in Colorado,” she said. “But now, to say we want your tax dollars, too, that’s a slap in the face. Are we trying to work together for a Colorado that is at least somewhat representative of all views, or are we trying to shove pretty radical and extreme policies down the pro-life people’s throats? Seventy-nine certainly is galvanizing because we would never be able to pass any sort of regulations on abortion if it goes through.”

Though 79 would enshrine access to abortion and other reproductive health care in the state constitution, the measure does not remove the law requiring parents to be notified if a child under age 18 seeks an abortion.

“Generally speaking, if people are concerned that something they have is about to be taken from them, historically, it has been a really good motivator for them to turn out to vote,” said Masket, the DU professor.

LGBTQ+ voting in Colorado The issues 1,200 young Black, brown and white voters said they cared about most when they were contacted by New Era Colorado in 2021 were racial justice “and affirming our essential right to accessible and affordable reproductive care on the state and local levels,” said Camila Navarrette, communications director for the liberal-leaning nonprofit which mobilizes young voters around issues like climate justice, higher education, student debt and economic justice.

“Young voters want a culture that replaces stigma and fear with dignity, access and affordability, and in which every Coloradan should be free to love who they want,” she added.

New Era knows young people are issue-based voters. “We don’t turn out for the candidates or political parties,” Navarrette said. “We turn out for the opportunities to create the liberated worlds we want to be a part of.”

Amendment J could rally a lot of young voters, as it would remove the provision of the state constitution that states only one man and one woman can be recognized as married in Colorado. When it was referred to the ballot, it passed the House 46-14 and the Senate 29-5, with some Republicans in both chambers voting in favor.

The measure would strike a phrase in the Colorado constitution, added by voters in 2006, that recognizes only marriages between a man and a womanRead more

Since gay marriage is legal and protected under a Colorado law that passed in 2013 and a U.S. Supreme Court ruling in 2015, it may not seem like a high-stakes issue. But with Justice Clarence Thomas saying, in a concurrent opinion in the case that overturned Roe v. Wade in 2022, that the court “should reconsider its substantive due process precedents that protect contraception, same-sex relationships, and same-sex marriage,” many are worried a Trump Supreme Court could roll back LGBTQ+ protections.

Not if Navarette and many of the 250,000 new voters New Era has registered since 2006 have their way. They are activated and planning to come out in droves to support LGBTQ+ rights and the right to have an abortion, she said. While they’re at it, they’ll likely vote for other issues that protect women and children, she added.

Ranked choice voting and the very thoughtful electorate Childers, the political scientist, said for the most part, wedge issues like immigration and gun control get a lot more attention than less controversial matters.

Wedge issues also tend to draw out “low-engagement voters,” who aren’t paying attention or absorbing campaign information, but are paying attention to the media or are issues people already care about, he added. “And they tend to get a lot more campaign spending” on advertising, mailers and other outreach that often activates voters.

The measure would change most of the state’s primaries so candidates from all parties run against each other, with the top four vote-getters advancing to a ranked choice voting general election.

But occasionally a seeming outlier rakes in the big bucks.

“Hard to understand” is how more than one person The Sun interviewed for this story described Proposition 131, which would change most of the state’s primaries so candidates from all parties run against each other, with the top four vote-getters advancing to a ranked choice voting general election.

Hard-to-understand issues can turn off voters because of the work it takes to make an informed decision on them.

If Proposition 131 passes, it would not go into effect right away, if ever, because of a clause added to Senate Bill 210 that requires 12 Colorado municipalities in counties of a certain size and with a specific demographic makeup to conduct ranked choice elections before a ranked choice election could be used in a race for state or federal office.

Members of the Abolitionist Society of Pueblo display anti-abortion signage during a reproductive rights rally sponsored by the Harris-Walz presidential campaign Oct. 7 in Pueblo. Spokesman Jason Smith said, “God says ‘thou shall not murder.’ We’re here to let people know we don’t support murder.” (Mike Sweeney, Special to The Colorado Sun) The amendment also says Colorado could not move to the new primary system proposed by Colorado Voters First until that requirement has been met.

Of the nearly $9.3 million raised by Colorado Voters First, the issue committee supporting Proposition 131, as of Oct. 16, Kent Thiry, former CEO of DaVita, the lead proponent of the measure, had kicked in $1.43 million, while Unite America, an election reform nonprofit, contributed $4.68 million. Thiry is cochair of the Unite America board.

Supporters of the measure include a host of powerful legislators like U.S. Sen. John Hickenlooper and Gov. Jared Polis, both Democrats, and former U.S. Rep. Ken Buck, a Republican, as well as the Bipartisan Policy Center, the League of Women Voters and the Colorado Chamber of Commerce. Opponents include the Democratic Party, the Colorado GOP and the Green Party in Colorado.

A Keating Research poll in September conducted on behalf of supporters of the measure showed that 56% of those polled said they would vote “yes” on the initiative, while another 8% said they were leaning toward voting “yes.” Another 21% said they would vote “no” on it, and 4% said they were leaning toward voting “no.” About 11% said they were not sure how they would vote or that they were completely undecided.

About 23% of Colorado voters are registered as Republican, 26% are registered as Democrats and nearly half of voters are unaffiliated.

The media can have a powerful sway over voters, Childers said. Voter turnout in general could be affected by pundits telling Coloradans their votes don’t count.

But Keating isn’t worried about those crying there are too many ballot measures.

“They say that every year and then people end up voting.”

Tracy Ross is a reporter for The Colorado Sun. Her work frequently appears on-air at KUNC 91.5 FM and online at KUNC.org. Contact Tracy at tracy@coloradosun.com.

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