One frosty late October morning, Republican Congressional candidate for Colorado’s 8th District, State Rep. Gabe Evans, urged a group of constituents at a downtown Greeley coffee shop to get people to the polls.
“Talk to your friends, talk to your neighbors, talk to your family. If they haven’t voted yet, encourage them to vote,” Evans said. “This is something we’re privileged to do here in the United States, and a long line of folks have paid in blood to protect this right to vote.”
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On the other side of the district in Commerce City, the incumbent Democratic US Rep. Yadira Caraveo gave a pep talk to campaign volunteers before canvassing the neighborhood.
“What you are all doing today is so incredibly powerful – going out and having a good conversation with people who don’t always get asked for their vote,” Caraveo said. “Knock on every door and make sure that those voices are heard.”
8th Congressional District incumbent Yadira Caraveo talks to volunteers before they head out to canvas a Commerce City neighborhood on Saturday, October 26, 2024. Caraveo won the seat in 2022 by only about 1,600 votes.
Caraveo and Evans aren’t taking any votes for granted. Colorado’s 8th District is one only 22 battleground House races nationwide that will decide the balance of power in the United States House of Representatives, according to the Cook Political Report. The candidates spent the final days of the neck-and-neck race crisscrossing the district trying to reach moderate voters who have yet to cast their ballots.
“My skill set is uniquely situated to be able to push that pendulum back towards center,” Evans said.
According to voter registration data from the Secretary of State’s office, unaffiliated voters make up, by far, the largest voting block in the 8th District, not Democrats or Republicans, much like the rest of Colorado. Winning the unaffiliated vote in this district is therefore key to getting over the finish line in the 8th.
“I take the job title that I have–Representative–very seriously,” Caraveo said. “It’s why I’ve made sure not to tack to the far left, but to stick to the middle, because I was not given a mandate to go to the left by winning by 1,600 votes. They’re telling me to legislate and vote from the middle of the road.”
Caraveo voted along with Republicans to condemn the Biden Administration, and Vice President Kamala Harris, for failing to secure the U.S.-Mexico Border. The vote was despite a past record of more Democratic party-aligned immigration stances, including signing onto a letter in 2021 asking the Biden Administration to divest in immigration enforcement agencies.
Evans does not support a national abortion ban. He supports access to abortion in cases of rape and incest and wants the medical community to be involved in decisions around abortion—a more middle-of-the road stance on reproductive healthcare than many other Republicans in Congress.
Republican 8th District candidate and State Rep. Gabe Evans at the National Republican Congressional Committee office in Thornton on Tuesday, October 29, 2024. Both Evans and Caraveo have spent the last days of the campaign courting moderate voters.
Both candidates also committed to combating the divisive political rhetoric that characterizes much of American politics today, despite the steady stream of negative attack ads throughout the campaign.
“If it’s a conversation that I’m driving, it’s also going to be fact based. It’s going to be policy focused. It’s going to be honest,” Evans said. “It’s going to be focused on the actual details that we have, and not focused on any of the hyperbole or the personality drama that’s swirling around.
Caraveo emphasized the need to change the political atmosphere in order for Congress to govern effectively.
“Because of the chaos that I’ve seen over the last two years, where we really have gotten nothing done, we are one of the least productive congresses since the Civil War,” Caraveo said. “Representation for the Eighth District needs to be pragmatic. It needs to espouse as many opinions as possible and find compromise in those opinions and not continue to divide each other.”
The 8th District was created after the 2020 U.S. Census and is Colorado’s newest Congressional seat, making Caraveo the first person elected to represent it. The district is situated along the I-25 corridor, stretching from north of Denver up to Greeley, and includes suburbs, smaller cities and the rural areas. The district is also has the largest concentration of Latinos of any district in the state.
In this election, it has also become one of the most closely watched races in the country. Interests from up and down the American political system have tried to influence the outcome, from Congressional leadership to political action committees.
“I’m here because this, I believe, is the most critical race in the United States of America. And I don’t say that lightly,” Assistant House Democratic Leader and U.S. Rep. for the neighboring 6th Congressional District, Joe Neguse, said at a Caraveo campaign event. “If we do not win here, we won’t win a majority in the House.”
Jesse Paul
/
Colorado Sun
8th District incumbent Congresswoman Yadira Caraveo, D-Thornton, addresses supporters at a campaign event in Commerce City on Saturday, October 26, 2024. Both Caraveo and opponent Gabe Evans say they are committed to abandoning divisive political rhetoric despite numerous negative attack ads in the race.
Republican Speaker of the House Mike Johnson came to Colorado last month to campaign for Evans, telling CBS Colorado that “everyone in the country is watching this race very carefully.” Evans also received an endorsement from former President and Republican Presidential candidate Donald Trump.
The current Republican majority in the U.S. House of Representatives is razor thin, and with so few competitive House races across the country, the 8th District has an outsized importance in deciding which party wins a majority in the chamber.
“The models that we’re seeing for the House of Representatives, and the outcomes after this election, appear to be very, very, very tight,” Colorado State University political scientist Kyle Saunders said. “One seat really, really could determine the balance of power in the chamber, moving forward.”
In 2022, Caraveo won the seat over Republican State Sen. Barbara Kirkmeyer by only about 1,600 votes. Such a thin margin gives Republicans hope they can flip the seat this time while Democrats are trying desperately to hold onto it. A poll published last week by Emerson College put Caraveo at a two point advantage over Evans, well within the margin of error. Previous polling has shown no clear frontrunner.
More money than any other Colorado race has poured into the 8th District contest from outside political groups trying to move the needle one way or another, including from super PACs, or Political Action Committees, which are groups that raise and spend money to support candidates but do not coordinate directly with campaigns. The Federal Election Commission reports they have spent more than $23 million on the race this year, with over $12 million supporting Caraveo and over $10 million supporting Evans. In 2022, outside groups spent less than $17 million on the race.
GOP candidate for the 8th District, State Rep Gabe Evans, talks to supporters at Aunt Helen’s Cafe and Wine Bar in downtown Greeley on the morning of Tuesday, October 29, 2024. With such a tight race, Evans urged them to get their families and friends to vote.
Much of that money has funded a deluge of television ads. According to Saunders, in such a tight race like this, even if an ad convinces a small number of voters, it can have a significant impact on the outcome.
“We know that negative ads and fear appeals work on the human condition. They’re effective,” Saunders said. “When you get into a case like this race or any competitive race, you have all these resources, and you’ve got to do something if you really want to win.”
Both candidates have engaged in some of the same divisive rhetoric they said they want to end over the course of the race. Their campaigns and the groups supporting them continue to run attack ads, and they have painted their opponent as an existential threat to Coloradans’ way of life and their values.
“It does feel cynical. It does feel dividing, and it is. There’s no doubt,” Saunders said. “Because after this, everybody has to somehow come back together and there’s bad blood there and you really have created this environment of negativity that’s really hard to overcome.”
Even if they follow through and try to abandon the current political rhetoric once they’re in office, whoever wins the 8th District election Tuesday won’t find it easy to mend the divides exacerbated by the campaign.
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Publish date : 2024-11-03 01:03:00
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