If one thing’s nearly certain for the 2024-25 ski season, it’s that atmospheric patterns that can dictate snow conditions will be different from last year.
Ahead of winter, the continental U.S. is expected to shift into a La Nina pattern generally characterized by more precipitous, cooler weather in the north and drier, warmer weather in the south. La Nina occurs when surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific Ocean off the coast of South America fall below average, pushing the jet stream north.
During the 2023-24 season, the opposite pattern, El Nino, was present, which can have the inverse effect.
In a blog post on OpenSnow.com earlier this month, meteorologist Sam Collentine said forecasts favor a “weak” La Nina forming — meaning accompanying snowfall could be on the lower end of what La Nina typically brings.
Collentine cautioned against taking any long-range prediction as gospel, adding, “We know that skiing quality improves and degrades with storm cycles that last a few days to a week.” Still, by analyzing data from past weak La Nina seasons, Collentine provides a glimpse of what this year could have in store.
Steamboat
Looking at Steamboat Springs, Collentine compares those same six seasons to the average snowpack recorded at the Tower SNOTEL station near Steamboat — which on March 31 usually has a normal snow-water equivalent of 42 inches.
The two seasons that produced well above-normal snow were 2005-06 and 2022-23. Two produced near-normal snowpack (2008-09 and 2016-17) while two were well below normal (2000-01 and 2017-18). Below are the findings for each season:
2000-01: 36.0 inches (86% of normal)
2005-06: 51.3 inches (121% of normal)
2008-09: 44.9 inches (107% of normal)
2016-17: 38.9 inches (93% of normal)
2017-18: 34.5 inches (82% of normal)
2022-23: 51.9 inches (124% of normal)
Nearer-term predictions
The High Country over the past month experienced a flurry of snowfall, the first significant storms of the 2024-25 season. But the next few weeks could be much drier.
“The weekend storm was a fun taste of winter, but we’re going back into a more typical fall weather pattern to close out September with peak fall color and dry conditions,” wrote OpenSnow founding meteorologist Joel Gratz in a Sept. 23 post.
A three-to-four-week outlook from the Climate Prediction Center shows greater chances for above-normal temperature and below-normal precipitation in Colorado from now through Oct. 18.
A longer-range forecast shows that in October, November and December the High Country has a 50% to 60% chance of seeing above-normal temperature and a 33% to 40% chance of below-normal precipitation.
“Most signs point to near-average snowfall with a higher probability for more snow during the ‘core’ of the season in December and January, and perhaps less snow during the early and late season,” Gratz stated. “That said, similar past seasons ranged from well below-average snowfall to near-average snowfall to well above-average snowfall. So … yes, anything is possible.”
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Publish date : 2024-09-24 13:15:00
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