Photograph by Kohei Choji / The Yomiuri Shimbun / Reuters
Before you allot any of the seven swing states to either candidate, Kamala Harris begins with two hundred and twenty-six electoral votes. Her most straightforward path to reaching two hundred and seventy is to win the three Great Lakes battlegrounds of Pennsylvania (nineteen votes), Michigan (fifteen), and Wisconsin (ten). But, because her polling averages have faded slightly in those states, and since she’s had some better polls recently in North Carolina and Georgia (each with sixteen votes), it’s worth thinking about a few other scenarios as you watch the returns come in on Tuesday night.
The Southeast and Michigan: In this scenario, Harris would get past two hundred and seventy by winning North Carolina, Georgia, and Michigan. Joe Biden lost North Carolina by just over one percentage point in 2020, but Harris has been tied or ahead in several recent polls there, and the Trump campaign has been increasingly anxious about it. Georgia, meanwhile, narrowly went for Biden, and the polls this year show a close race. But even with these two states in her column—and we should know the results in North Carolina and Georgia relatively early in the night—Harris would need more. Michigan might be her best bet in the Midwest. Biden won the state by more than two percentage points—slightly larger than his margins of victory in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
The Top Pollsters Get It Right: On Saturday and Sunday, the New York Times and the Des Moines Register both released high-quality polls. The Times’ poll showed Harris barely winning North Carolina, Georgia, Wisconsin, and Nevada. In the remaining swing states, Harris was level with Trump or behind. If the election were to play out as the Times poll had it, and even if she were to lose the tied states, Harris would win the Presidency. The other survey this weekend that got loads of attention, which was conducted by Ann Selzer and published in the Register, had Harris up in Iowa by three percentage points. Iowa isn’t even considered a swing state, and Harris is unlikely to win it. But Selzer’s poll could be a sign of Harris’s strength with white voters in that region of the country, which could augur well for her in neighboring Wisconsin.
Comeback in Arizona: The worst-polling swing state of the cycle for Harris has been Arizona (eleven votes). She trails in the polling averages by a couple of points. But if Arizona stays blue—Biden won it very narrowly in 2020—Harris can afford to lose Wisconsin if she also wins Pennsylvania and Michigan. Democrats did well in Arizona in the 2022 midterm elections—winning the governor’s race and a Senate seat—but this scenario is probably less likely than some of the others.
Irrelevant Nevada?: Nevada, with its six Electoral College votes, is by far the least populous of the swing states, which means that its usefulness comes up in far fewer scenarios. The crucial thing to look for regarding Nevada’s importance is whether Harris wins Pennsylvania. If she does, there is only one scenario—Nevada, Pennsylvania, Arizona, Wisconsin—where a Nevada victory would matter. But, if Harris loses Pennsylvania, Nevada becomes important in a number of different maps.
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Publish date : 2024-11-04 22:16:00
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