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‘A very big market event’
The figure was the weakest since December last year and the second weakest since the start of the COVID pandemic in the West in March 2020.
Robert Carnell, from financial services firm ING, said: “What we are looking at now is a situation where the market is viewing what’s going on in the US macro economy as ticking the recession box.”
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It also comes after the US Federal Reserve decided on Wednesday not to cut interest rates from the 5.25% to 5.5% range which they have been held at since July last year. Markets expect the central bank to make a cut in September.
Economists at Goldman Sachs said they believed there was now a 25% chance of a recession in the US, up from their previous estimate of 15%.
Analysts at JPMorgan were more pessimistic, putting the probability of a recession at 50%.
Concerns globally have also been heightened by worries over the strength of China’s economy and several weak earnings reports from major technology firms last week, as investors grow jittery over potential returns from investment in AI.
Share prices have also been falling in Japan since Wednesday after its central bank raised its benchmark interest rate to around 0.25% from a range of zero to about 0.1%.
Danni Hewson, from investment platform AJ Bell, said: “Friday’s [US] jobs figures dropped like a bucket of cold water on markets already chilled by mixed earnings updates and concern about levels of spending by big tech companies on AI plans.
“London markets haven’t escaped the Monday meltdown with just a handful of companies on the FTSE 100 opening on the front foot and a smorgasbord of sectors losing ground, including miners and oil giants.”
Disorder impact
Ms Hewson also said that riots in the UK in recent days were also “likely to impact consumer confidence and footfall levels, which are crucial to retailers and hospitality venues”.
She added: “Then there’s the potential insurance claims stemming from the damage inflicted by flying bricks and Molotov cocktails.
“For a UK economy struggling to find growth this chapter, particularly at this time, is a massively unwelcome one.”
Derren Nathan, head of equity research at Hargreaves Lansdown, said: “The FTSE 100 has opened down as the US sneeze risks becoming a cold.
“Exporters bore the brunt of the sell-off as contagion from last week’s poor employment and manufacturing data in the States put recessionary fears back on the table.
“The discussion around September’s rate decision at the Federal Reserve Bank has moved from if to how much, with the odds now moving in favour of a half-point cut.”
Fears over a possible US recession – coupled with ongoing concerns over tensions in the Middle East – have also prompted falls in the price of oil.
A barrel of the benchmark Brent crude has slipped by more than 1.2% to just under $76 (£60) on Monday morning.
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Publish date : 2024-08-05 10:29:00
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