How America’s adversaries and allies are responding to Trump’s landslide

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President-elect Donald Trump’s triumph Tuesday is perhaps the greatest political turnaround in American history. But how is the world reacting?

Trump ran as the “peace candidate” by promising to avert what he believes is a looming WWIII. He wants calmer relations with adversaries, such as Russia and China. Contrary to much mythmaking, however, Moscow and Beijing believe there are unlikely to be major changes in U.S. foreign policy. At least not immediately. Moscow preferred Trump while Beijing was partial to Vice President Kamala Harris, but both countries were prepared for either winner.

Last week, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov tamped down expectations of a detente in U.S.-Russia relations by saying Moscow could “see no possibility of the United States changing its Russophobic course” no matter who became its next president. His statement that the Kremlin “has no preferences” in the election was untrue. Still, Lavrov accurately added, “In the past, the Trump administration was the one that introduced the greatest number of anti-Russia sanctions compared with its predecessors.”

That’s why the Kremlin’s response to Trump’s big win has been muted. Russian President Vladimir Putin has demurred from offering Trump personal congratulations on his victory over Harris, which Putin’s spokesman yesterday termed “wonderful” while reminding, “We’re talking about an unfriendly country that’s both directly and indirectly involved in a war against our nation.” Ukraine is Moscow’s top concern. Here, Trump’s promise to bring a rapid end to that war with a diplomatic deal is viewed skeptically, if hopefully, by Moscow.

It’s no surprise that Ukraine’s beleaguered president, Volodymyr Zelensky, was quick to offer Trump congratulations on “his impressive election victory.” In truth, nobody knows what Trump’s plan is to end the war in Ukraine or if he even has one. Once Trump gets into deal-maker mode, strange and unexpected things can happen.

Much the same holds true in East Asia, where escalating Chinese military exercises around Taiwan and in the South China Sea have raised tensions and fears of war. Both Taiwan and China quickly offered Trump congratulations on his victory. Yesterday, China’s foreign ministry tepidly stated, “We respect the choice of the American people,” in an announcement. The stark reality is Taiwan will soon find itself under pressure to spend more on its own defense once Trump, who has accused Taiwan of not paying its fair share, reenters the Oval Office.

In Tehran, regime voices cautiously announced that Trump’s return meant little for Iran since “There isn’t much difference between Trump and Harris.” That’s likely wishful thinking since Trump was much tougher on Iran than former President Barack Obama or President Joe Biden, while Tehran’s plots to assassinate senior Trump officials, and even Trump himself, cannot improve relations with the new administration. Neither will the new White House be filled with pro-Tehran officials in top jobs, including suspected moles, as Democratic administrations have been for 12 of the last 16 years.

In contrast, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu offered Trump hearty congratulations for “history’s greatest comeback.” Yesterday, Netanyahu was among the first to call Trump to offer congratulations. Their conversation included the Iranian threat to both countries. Netanyahu will soon be under pressure from Trump to wind down the Gaza war and restore peace in the Middle East, as Israeli leaders know. Still, the public comments between Washington and Jerusalem will be much warmer than they have been between Biden and Netanyahu.

Another foreign friend who was quick to send Trump his best wishes was Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, who offered Trump congratulations on his “enormous win. A much needed victory for the world!” Orban invested heavily in a Trump victory, a wager that has paid off handsomely. The Hungarian prime minister is loathed by Western liberal elites for his populist nationalism, but Hungary seems likely to find favor in the new White House.

Leaders across Europe are extending greetings to Trump for his victory, including British Prime Minister Keir Starmer, French President Emmanuel Macron, and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, as well as the political heads of the European Union and NATO. They offered boilerplate responses while professing that they are looking forward to working with the returning president.

Our European allies are responding to Trump’s return to power more serenely than they greeted his election eight years ago. European leaders privately are calmer than their media, which recycles anti-Trump themes, including that the president-elect is a fascist, culled from American media. Trump likes to chastise NATO allies for their inadequate defense spending, but his commitment to the alliance seems solid. Moreover, Trump berating European defense freeloaders really did cause NATO defense spending to rise during Trump’s first term – which Obama’s polite efforts failed to accomplish. We should expect more of the same. Trump doesn’t engage in the routine Atlanticist flattery that’s expected in NATO circles. He focuses on results.

Our adversaries and allies are waiting to see what happens next. Trump seems sincere about ending the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East as soon as possible, which he continuously professes would never have happened on his watch. Whether these claims are accurate is another question, but friends and enemies alike should expect a serious Trump effort to reduce global tensions through his personal diplomacy. Liberals are loath to ponder that if Trump manages to bring a diplomatic end to one of those terrible wars, much less both, he will be an obvious candidate for the Nobel Peace Prize, as former President Teddy Roosevelt was in 1906 for his concluding the Russo-Japanese War.

A great deal of how Trump’s foreign and defense policy unfolds has to do with cadres. The big question is who the new administration will place in top national security jobs. Names currently being floated include Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL), Sen. Tom Cotton (R-AR), Rep. Mike Waltz (R-FL), and former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo (who previously served as Trump’s defense secretary and CIA director). Many prominent Republicans who were reluctant to work for Trump in 2017 are now open to the idea. With his resounding victory Tuesday, Trump vanquished the last holdouts among the party’s small but vocal “NeverTrump” faction. The GOP is Trump’s party now, and Republicans who want to shape policy need to sign up for the Trump train.

This is relevant to foreign governments, particularly their intelligence services. They will be watching very, very closely for the next several weeks. They want to know who will be holding top defense, diplomatic, and security posts after Inauguration Day. Friends and adversaries alike seek to understand who the incoming bosses of American defense, diplomacy, and intelligence will be. Therefore, foreign spies are tracking the Trump jobs gossip as closely as any Beltway reporter.

Trump’s first term featured a rough relationship between him and our intelligence agencies from day one since Trump viewed the “deep state” as his internal foes — not without cause. His relationship with his top generals and Pentagon officials frequently wasn’t much better. The alliance of former intelligence leaders with Democrats and the media on the eve of the 2020 election to suppress Hunter Biden’s salacious laptop, which probably swung that election Joe Biden’s way, represented the nadir of Trump’s relationship with America’s spies. The intelligence community damaged its relationship with half the country with such unseemly partisan antics, which will take time to repair.

The stakes are high. With global tensions rising, it’s imperative that the new president enjoy a functional relationship with our spy agencies. Here, the quality of Trump’s personnel choices matters greatly. If Trump chooses nonpartisan professionals over personal friends and toadies to lead our troubled security agencies, he can implement much needed reforms of the intelligence community.

That’s what foreign governments are watching right now.

Whoever Trump chooses to staff the Pentagon, the National Security Council, the CIA, and other security agencies will offer strong hints about the direction in which the Trump train is headed regarding our defense and global security. Trump has been granted a once-in-a-generation mandate to fundamentally reform government in Washington.

The easiest way to know how serious the president-elect is about effecting systemic change in the Pentagon, Homeland Security, and the intelligence community is by watching who gets selected for top jobs. Our friends and adversaries know this, which is why foreign spies are working overtime in Washington bars and restaurants between now and the holidays, hoping to catch the latest gossip regarding Trump’s personnel choices. Not every free drink is free.

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John R. Schindler served with the National Security Agency as a senior intelligence analyst and counterintelligence officer.

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