For the first time in a long time, Canada is not the team to beat. Not only have the Americans closed the talent gap, but they have arguably surpassed the Canadians on paper.
Canada has a lot of firepower throughout the lineup and that will be their biggest edge in this tournament. Between Connor McDavid, Nathan MacKinnon and Cale Makar, they have three of the five best players in the world — a massive advantage. Even after them, the team is loaded with offensive talent; the emergence of Sam Reinhart as one of the best players in the world is especially helpful. A growing identity of gritty skill is present throughout the lineup — especially with some of Canada’s savvy bottom six choices — which should make Canada annoyingly difficult to play against.
There’s obviously a lot of talent here and it’s why Canada enters the tournament with the highest Offensive Rating of any team, narrowly edging USA. Where there’s some comparative trouble is on defense, as Canada has the lowest Defensive Rating of any country.
That starts between the pipes where Jordan Binnington might be Canada’s best option but is probably the eighth-best goaltender at the tournament — a bad sign given there are only four teams. The issues go beyond that with a back end that isn’t as sturdy as what Canada used to tout during its golden era. Makar is great and Josh Morrissey, too — but everyone else carries question marks. Devon Toews hasn’t looked himself this season, while Alex Pietrangelo and Shea Theodore have been getting buried at five-on-five in Vegas. That may have led to some safe choices in Travis Sanheim and Colton Parayko, though it’s debatable whether either has the dynamic high-end ability to make the most of Canada’s offensive strengths. Leaning into Canada’s overwhelming offensive advantage with Evan Bouchard on the back end (especially considering his improved defensive game over the last year) would’ve closed the gap considerably between Canada and the U.S. Instead, Canada played it safe with this era’s Eric Brewer and, as a result, enters the tournament with the third-best blue line.
Canada is still loaded with talent, but the team definitely has some vulnerabilities that can be exploited. More so than usual. The Canadians are strong enough to win, but the Americans look a little bit better.
Sweden
Sweden’s biggest strength, as usual, lies within its back end. The group they’re bringing still brings the heat, especially with how strong Victor Hedman has looked this season. He’s at his best right now and should lead a deep blue line that features an elite shutdown trifecta of Mattias Ekholm, Gustav Forsling and Jonas Brodin. It’s the second-best defense group in the tournament.
There’s a reason Sweden is firmly third fiddle here to Canada and the U.S., though. Though its goaltending is better than Canada’s, Sweden still greatly lags behind the U.S. between the pipes. The bigger issue, though, is up front where Sweden lacks the same high-end talent that Canada, the U.S. and even Finland possess. Elias Pettersson, William Nylander and Filip Forsberg are all terrific players — they’re franchise-caliber. But they would not be top three forwards on any of the other three teams. That’s a huge disadvantage when the team is going to be staring down McDavid, Matthews and Aleksander Barkov. As deep as the team’s defense is, the same can be said there. Hedman has been amazing, but he’s no Makar, Hughes or Miro Heiskanen.
Up front, Sweden also lacks secondary weapons beyond its big three. Jesper Bratt is a wonderful player, but the drop-off after him is quite stark. Mika Zibanejad’s epic decline this season really hurts.
The Swedes will be a tough out, but there’s a fairly large gap between them and the two North American juggernauts.
Finland
The Finns have a strong nucleus of talent at the top of the lineup, more so than even Sweden. Between Barkov, Mikko Rantanen, Sebastian Aho, Roope Hintz, Miro Heiskanen and Juuse Saros, Finland has a very special group of top-end talent that can rival some of the best that Canada and the U.S. have to offer. That much of it is concentrated down the middle helps, too, as the Finns are right there with both Canada and the U.S. in center talent.
The problem is there just isn’t enough elsewhere. Finland still lacks in secondary talent and that shows in both its bottom six and, well, every defenseman not named Miro Heiskanen. Finland has a reputation for being frisky and has the will to make any game more interesting. Having the second best Defensive Rating behind USA backed by the second best goaltending can help with that, but that’s probably Finland’s only path to victory. The other three nations have more ways to get ahead and it’s why Finland will enter every game in this tournament a sizeable step behind the competition.
The odds
It’s no surprise the United States and Canada lead the pack here, winning the tournament 78 percent of the time. That doesn’t mean Sweden and Finland shouldn’t bother showing up, but given the talent disparity, their chances of making noise — even in a short tournament — are slimmer.
(Illustration: Meech Robinson / The Athletic. Photos: John Russell, Kevin Sousa, Mark LoMoglio / NHLI; Ethan Miller / Getty Images)
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Publish date : 2024-12-04 11:45:00
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