Uncertainty on Africa policies as America votes

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As the United States goes to the polls on November 5, the biggest question on the minds of many Africans is whether there will be a major shift in policies on Africa depending on who occupies the White House after President Joe Biden.

Washington, regardless of who is in power, has been a key cog in African countries’ policies regarding trade, climate, public health funding and peace-making, especially in the Horn of Africa, Great Lakes and Sahel regions.

And new issues have emerged, including immigration and specific rights issues related to the LGBTQ+ community.

Trade experts say Africa is not generally high on the US’s foreign policy priorities and so there may be little shift irrespective of who, between former President Donald Trump of the Republican Party and Vice President Kamala Harris of the Democratic Party, wins.

Trump, who was president between 2016 and 2020 when he was defeated by Biden, never visited Africa. Biden has promised to tour Angola in December, way after the election.

Historically, two-term presidents have waited until their second term to establish their legacies on the continent, while many one-term presidents have neglected it altogether. Biden has said he will come to discuss trade, infrastructure and democracy. But he will not make any commitments.

Analysts believe the battle against China for critical minerals in Africa will be a primary driver of both parties’ policies toward Africa.

This year’s polls have renewed interest in Africa as the bitter rivalry between Harris and Trump threatens to spill over globally.

Trade, climate change, insecurity, food security, terrorism threats, health and conflict in the Horn of Africa, are key concerns on the continent.

Not change much

US Ambassador to Kenya Meg Whitman said her country’s policies on the continent will not change much irrespective of who takes over from Biden.

“As you know it is a very close election. What I will say, and I have been asked this question a lot of times, will it change the relationship (with Kenya), whoever wins? And the answer to that, I believe, is no,” Ms Whitman said.

“We have had many presidents in the 60 years of our relationship and this is the strongest relationship that America has on the continent, and maybe even in the world. So, I can assure you that whoever is elected will continue to work with Kenya much as we have,” she added.

Washington is expected to remain focused on balancing economic and security interests, as both Democrats and Republicans acknowledge Africa’s strategic importance in the shifting geopolitical landscape.

However, the parties’ differing approaches may influence how US policy is perceived by African and European partners.

Olabisi D. Akinkugbe, associate professor of the Schulich School of Law at Dalhousie University, Canada, and an expert in international trade and investment law, said that the future of US trade with Africa will depend on who wins.

“Assuming its Vice-President Kamala Harris, one would say it would be a continuation of ‘Biden economics’, the approach to international trade negotiations of the bilateral agreements as well as the African Growth and Opportunity Act (Agoa) will not change significantly from what we have seen of her,” Prof Akinkugbe told The EastAfrican.

“There is every reason to be sceptical about a second Trump administration. For one, the list of things he wished he did in his first term that could not be achieved then could as well come back. Trump has not been unclear about the fact that what he wants to do is to globalise American interests.

“That means that in the context of the African states, Agoa, and overall African-US relations, leaders would have to be very strong at the state, regional and international levels about protecting the socioeconomic and sustainable environmental interests in those negotiations,” Prof Akinkugbe said.

Trump had begun some trade negotiation with Kenya, seeking to use it as an example for the continent to entice it for bilateral trade agreements.

Biden ignored it and began his own—the talks haven’t concluded and are unlikely to end before a new administration comes in. If Trump wins the White House, the talks could be scrapped and new negotiations started.

Trump also withdrew the US from the Paris Agreement, a climate deal that set targets for mitigating global warming and its impact. Biden rejoined it.

In March, the Biden administration announced more than $7 billion in private sector finance for climate impact and clean energy projects across Africa. Trump has previously disparaged clean energy.

It is expected that Harris would continue the Biden policy, supporting clean energy producers in Africa.

Right-wing activists

Under the Trump administration, American right-wing activists, who have stepped up campaigns across African nations promoting anti-abortion and anti-LGBTQ+ ideologies, are likely to pardon countries like Uganda who were suspended from Agoa over their internal laws on LGBTQ.

In his first term in 2016, Trump made it clear what trade deals he wanted. In another term, Trump’s policies are unlikely to take care of African interests.

Agoa, first implemented in 2000, provides eligible sub-Saharan African countries with duty-free access to the US market for more than 1,800 products, in addition to the more than 5,000 products that are eligible under the Generalised System of Preferences programme.

The Biden administration has expressed support for renewing Agoa before it expires, and bipartisan legislation has been under consideration in Congress to extend the Act. A Harris win would signal continuation of Biden’s plans.

“For more than two decades, the bipartisan Agoa has formed the bedrock of America’s economic partnership with African nations,” Biden said before the 21st Agoa Forum held on July 24-26 in Washington, DC. “I call on Congress to quickly reauthorise and modernise this landmark Act.”

Harris has visited Ghana, Zambia and Tanzania as Vice-President. She would be expected to continue Biden’s African policy as defined in the US Strategy Toward Sub-Saharan Africa, launched in 2022.

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