As keen election readers will know, polling in this race has been exceptionally close.
Both of the most recent Reuters/Ipsos polls show the candidates within the margin of error (plus or minus three percentage points).
Kamala Harris was leading Donald Trump 46% to 43% on Tuesday and 45% to 42% a week prior.
With so many survey results within the margin of error, we take a look at what it means and why it’s important.
What is it?
The margin of error is another term for the confidence pollsters have in their survey.
It is determined by sample size and weighting, a method of more accurately representing groups who are more difficult to contact that widens the margin of error.
Reuters/Ipsos believe that in their latest survey, the candidates’ support lies somewhere between three points in either direction of the reported result.
Ms Harris has somewhere between 43% and 49% of the public’s support, while Mr Trump has between 40% and 46%.
When is a candidate outside the margin of error?
Combining the ranges above, you’ll notice Mr Trump wins in some permutations, despite the headline figure putting Ms Harris ahead.
It is for this reason that a candidate’s lead is not “outside the margin of error” by simply polling more than three percentage points ahead of their opponent.
Each candidate has their own +/- three-point margin of error, so the leading candidate must be beating their rival by six percentage points (for example, if Ms Harris polls 49% to 40%) to be winning in a meaningful way.
If Ms Harris was beating Mr Trump by 47% to 43%, the race is still too close to call because their margins of error overlap, meaning the same poll says Mr Trump could win if he gained two or three percentage points and Ms Harris lost the same amount (for example, Harris: 44% versus Trump: 45%).
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Publish date : 2024-11-05 04:55:00
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