Prominent American historian and political scientist Allan Lichtman, widely recognised for his accurate predictions of U.S. presidential elections, has made a bold forecast for the upcoming polls: Kamala Harris will defeat Donald Trump to become the first woman president of the United States.The ‘Keys to the White House’
Lichtman, a professor at American University, has developed a prediction system called the ‘Keys to the White House,’ which he claims has accurately forecast the outcome of every U.S. presidential election since 1984. This system, which he created in 1981 with Russian geophysicist Vladimir Keilis-Borok, uses methods originally designed for predicting earthquakes.The system consists of 13 keys, which assess various factors about the incumbent White House party. According to Lichtman, if six of these keys go against the incumbent party, it is predicted to lose the election. Less than six, and the incumbent is predicted to win.US Elections: Four Keys Against Democrats
In a recent interview with ANI, Lichtman explained that only four of the 13 keys work against the Democrats, which spells defeat for Donald Trump.
“The White House party (Democrats) loses key 1, the mandate key, because they lost US House seats in 2022. They lost key number 3, the incumbency key, because the sitting president’s not running. They lose key number 12, the incumbent charisma key, because what you may think of Harris, she’s only been a candidate for a little while. She’s not reached the status of a Franklin Roosevelt. And she loses key number 11, the foreign policy failure key, because the Middle East is a disaster, a humanitarian crisis with no good end in sight,” said Lichtman.He added, “That’s four keys down, two keys short of what would be needed to predict Donald Trump returning to the White House and Harris losing.”Factors Favoring Kamal Harris in US Elections
Lichtman further elaborated on the nine keys that are working in favor of the Democrats and Kamala Harris.
“Well, as I said, they’re only losing four. That means they’re winning nine keys. The contest key, because the Democrats united around Harris. The third-party key, because the campaign of RFK Jr. has fizzled. The short-term economic key, because there’s no recession in the election year. The long-term economic key, because real per capita growth under the Biden term has vastly exceeded the average of the previous two terms,” he said.
He continued, “They win the policy change key, because policies under Biden are fundamentally different from those under Trump. They win the social unrest key, because the earlier sporadic demonstrations have fizzled away. They win the scandal key. Republicans have been trying for four years to pit a scandal on Biden and have come up empty.”
On foreign policy, Lichtman credited Biden with stopping Putin’s aggression: “They win the foreign policy success key, because it was Biden and Biden alone who put together the coalition of the West that stopped Putin from conquering Ukraine… They win the challenger charisma key, because whatever you may think of Trump as a showman, he doesn’t fit the definition of the key, which is a once-in-a-generation, across-the-board, inspirational candidate.”
A Pathbreaking Presidency
Kamala Harris, currently serving as Vice President, is the first woman, first Black, and first Asian American to hold that office. If elected president, she would make history again as the first woman and the first president of mixed Asian and African descent.
“She will be a pathbreaking president, foreshadowing where America is going. We’re rapidly becoming a majority-minority country. Old white guys like me are on the decline,” Lichtman said.
Donald Trump’s Bid for a Comeback
If Trump wins the election, it would mark a historic return to the White House, as he would be the first president in over 100 years to serve two non-consecutive terms.
However, Lichtman dismissed the possibility of an “October surprise” swaying the election results. “The October surprise is the biggest myth in American history. I’ve predicted all my elections… well before any October surprise,” he said, citing the 2016 election when Trump’s recorded comments on women didn’t change his prediction of Trump’s victory.
A Choice Between Two Leaders
Lichtman contrasted the leadership styles of Trump and Harris. He described Trump as an “America first” leader, against collective security with U.S. allies, while Harris represents a more traditional American approach, favoring cooperation with allies.
“Trump is an America first president or candidate… He believes in turning inward. He’s against collective security with our allies. Harris is your typical president who believes in collective security, who believes in working with our allies,” said Lichtman.
As the election approaches, the political scientist stood firm in his prediction: “The keys predict we’re going to have a new pathbreaking president.”
The U.S. presidential election is scheduled for November 5, with Harris poised to make history if Lichtman’s forecast holds true.
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Publish date : 2024-10-13 16:52:00
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