America’s global health progress is stalling compared to other nations. Case in point: United States life expectancy gains are expected to flatline by 2050, according to a comprehensive analysis recently published in The Lancet.
The study, conducted by researchers at the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME), forecasts US life expectancy will inch up by only about two years over the next quarter-century – from 78.3 years in 2022 to 80.4 years in 2050. This modest gain will drop America’s global ranking from 49th to 66th place among 204 countries.
Women’s health shows particularly troubling trends, with female life expectancy projected to decline in 20 states by 2050, including Ohio, Tennessee and Indiana. The research indicates this gender gap stems from stagnating female health outcomes rather than male improvements.
Drug-related mortality presents another critical challenge. Death rates from drug use disorders are expected to jump 34% between 2022 and 2050, cementing America’s position with the highest drug-related death rate globally – more than double that of second-ranked Canada.
The study also reveals unprecedented levels of disability in several states. Eight US states, including West Virginia, Kentucky, and Oklahoma, have age-standardized disability rates higher than those of any country worldwide, according to the Global Burden of Disease analysis.
“In spite of modest increases in life expectancy overall, our models forecast health improvements slowing down due to rising rates of obesity, which is a serious risk factor to many chronic diseases and forecasted to leap to levels never before seen,” said Christopher J.L. Murray, director of IHME and co-senior analysis author. “The rise in obesity and overweight rates in the U.S., with IHME forecasting over 260 million people affected by 2050, signals a public health crisis of unimaginable scale.”
The research suggests that tackling major risk factors such as obesity, high blood sugar and high blood pressure could prevent 12.4 million deaths by 2050. However, even these improvements wouldn’t be enough to catch up with peer nations like Canada, highlighting the need for comprehensive health system reforms and stronger preventive care measures.
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Publish date : 2024-12-07 06:19:00
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