It found that the Ms Harris campaign’s plans, which involve considerably more spending, imply the federal debt rising to a record 133% of GDP.
Perhaps that’s unsurprising, but the real shock of the analysis is that it found Mr Trump’s plans imply an even steeper upward trajectory, as he slashes taxes for a range of households and businesses, and continues some of the existing spending plans. While the Republicans are traditionally seen as the party of fiscal prudence, a second Trump administration would send the federal debt heading towards 142% of GDP.
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All of these figures would be record numbers. And for some economists that raises an important question: at what point do investors in UK government debt – and the dollar more widely – balk at these spending and borrowing plans?
Since the US dollar remains the world’s reserve currency, Washington is often said to enjoy an “exorbitant privilege”, allowing the government to avoid the constraints of many other nations. But with the federal debt heading towards these unprecedented levels – regardless of which candidate wins – the country’s economic story is heading into unfamiliar territory.
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Publish date : 2024-10-10 13:15:00
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