Following Thursday night’s stunning upset loss to Panama, who were longer than 8-to-1 to win that game at both DraftKings and FanDuel, USA’s 2024 Copa America outlook is drastically different than it was 24 hours ago. Manager Gregg Berhalter’s team now faces a must-win battle with Uruguay on Monday night at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City.
Even skeptics of this team expected a relatively easy run through group play, with the “doubters” questioning whether the Americans could win a likely quarterfinal match against either Colombia or Brazil.
But after losing a match in which it had to play with 10 men for the final 70-plus minutes following a Tim Weah red card in the 18th, USA are slight underdogs to even advance from a Group C that was no one’s “group of death.”
Below are the odds — as of the morning of Friday, June 28 — on USA advancing to the quarterfinals. With a 16-team field, every squad in this year’s Copa America that survives group play will be just three wins away from a trophy.
bet365BetMGMESPN BETDraftKingsFanDuelUSA odds to qualify from Group C+137+110+135+100+135Can USA Reach Copa America Knockout Rounds?
Now, “all” the Americans have to do to advance is take down one of the best teams in the tournament, a Uruguayan side coming off a 3-1 win over Panama on June 23 and a 5-0 blowout of Bolivia on Thursday, hours after USA’s loss to Panama.
If Uruguay needed a win, or even just a draw, in Monday’s game (a do-or-die clash at 9 p.m. ET on FOX), USA’s odds to advance would be much longer than those above.
However, because Uruguay — with six points and a goal differential of +7 — are all but guaranteed to win Group C (-8000 at FanDuel), there’s a real chance Manager Marcelo Bielsa rests a number of his top players.
We won’t know who will take the pitch for Uruguay until Monday night, but the moneyline odds for Monday’s match would look a lot different if Uruguay needed a victory in that contest.
USA vs. Uruguay Moneyline Odds (as of June 28)bet365BetMGMESPN BETDraftKingsFanDuelUSA+137+150+145+150+150Uruguay+210+188+195+185+190Draw+220+220+220+230+220
In fact, the odds above — especially at bet365, where Uruguay are longer than 2-to-1 — show there’s a good chance USA can beat a heavily rotated Uruguay to squeak out a trip to the quarterfinals, after all.
We’ll have more on Monday previewing that match in particular. For now, it’s hard to overstate how disastrous, and avoidable, Thursday’s loss to Panama truly was.
Berhalter’s USA’s Bad Habit a Concerning Trend
Weah’s red card, seven months after right back Sergino Dest got himself sent off for a tantrum in a Nations League match against Trinidad and Tobago last November, marks the second instance in less than a year of a key member of the USMNT losing his cool and hurting his team.
Unfortunately, Thursday’s debacle continued a longer-running propensity for self-inflicted drama for the USA men. In case anyone needs a refresher, since the 2022 World Cup, Berhalter has now 1) made a disagreement with one of his young stars, Gio Reyna, extremely public and 2) watched his players lose their composure against overmatched opponents (twice).
Even if USA get a win on Monday — in a match Uruguay don’t have to have — is there any reason to expect a composed showing in a hypothetical quarterfinal match against Colombia or Brazil?
The American roster is more loaded with high-level European starters than ever. But if it goes unresolved, the inability to stay poised dramatically lowers both the floor and the ceiling for this team. Crucially, this applies to not only the remainder of this year’s Copa America, but also to the biggest event in the history of American soccer — the 2026 World Cup on U.S. soil — in two years.
Could USA Still Make a Copa America Run?
Since it’s Friday, let’s close on a high note, starting with a one-word answer to this question: Absolutely.
The following admittedly sounds crazy coming off a loss to Panama. And though this point has probably definitely already been beaten into the ground, let’s mention one more time how fortunate USA is to be facing Uruguay under these particular circumstances. International soccer fans need only to rewind to the Georgia-Portgual Euro 2024 match earlier this week to see how beatable even elite teams can be when they have no real motivation to get a result.
Georgia boasts a legit star in 23-year-old Napoli winger Khvicha Kvaratskhelia, but they were still given no chance against Portugal on Wednesday. Against a rotated (and not terribly motivated) Portugal side, Georgia jumped the heavy favorites with a goal in the second minute en route to a 2-0 win that extended the country’s first appearance in a major tournament to the Euro 2024 round of 16.
What that should mean for USA is that it’s possible to get to the quarterfinals.
At that point, USA could have an opportunity for revenge against a Colombia side that embarrassed the Americans 5-1 in a friendly on June 8. The most likely QF alternative would be another match against Brazil. USA drew Vinicius Jr. and Co. in a pre-Copa friendly on June 12, and for all its talent, Brazil has not yet looked in sync during the 2024 Copa America.
“USA to Reach Semifinals” Odds Intriguing at +300
In addition to home-field advantage and the tailwinds this team would have if it survived Group C despite the Panama loss, there’s one other reason (straw to grasp at?) here. USA has a solid track record under Berhalter of responding to its worst performances with impressive bounce-back efforts (including the draw against Brazil earlier this month), especially in front of its home fans.
For those reasons, USA would be compelling underdogs, if nothing else, in the quarters. That by no means makes them a safe bet to reach the semis.
Still, it’d be hard to blame any U.S. fans looking to take a patriotic flier on this team (days before the Fourth of July, no less) to make the Copa America semifinals. The “USA to make the Copa America semifinals” futures bet is currently available at +300 at bet365, DraftKings and ESPN BET.
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Uncommon Knowledge
Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.
Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.
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Publish date : 2024-06-28 13:28:30
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