Welcome to Washington: Could America Be on the Path to a President Grassley?

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The United States could yet be on a course toward installing a 91-year old as president. That could happen if Speaker Johnson fails to mollify his right flank in the House ahead of the vote to elect a speaker on January 3. For they would need a speaker for Congress to certify the presidential vote.

Welcome to Washington, where Mr. Johnson has been facing a revolt from conservative lawmakers over the course of the last week. It arose after he released the text of his bipartisan government funding deal that many Republicans felt was too generous in terms of deficit spending and other legislative items. Now, many are saying that the speaker may not win their support in the new year.

It started with Congressman Thomas Massie, who said in the middle of the funding fight last week that he would not vote for the speaker when the new Congress begins. “I don’t plan to enter it as a negotiation. I plan to just not vote for him,” Mr. Massie told CNN.

The chairman of the Freedom Caucus, Congressman Andy Harris, teased that he would not support Mr. Johnson in a statement posted after the House passed the speaker’s “plan C” funding bill that included more than $100 billion in disaster and agriculture aid that would be added to the deficit.

“Since President Trump’s historic election to bring down spending, deficits, and inflation, the ‘Republican’-led House has INITIATED $300 billion in unpaid for new spending, without even ATTEMPTING offsets to prevent skyrocketing the deficit and debt. Future generations deserve better. I am now undecided on what House leadership should look like in the 119th Congress,” Mr. Harris — who leads the 38-member voting bloc — said in a statement posted to X.

Several other members told The New York Sun last week that they haven’t made up their minds about what to do on January 3. “I’ll decide that in January,” Congressman Tim Burchett said when asked by the Sun if he planned to support Mr. Johnson on the floor.

Even a slight delay to elect a speaker could have serious consequences for the start of the new Trump administration. Speaker McCarthy’s fight to win the gavel took four days in 2023, and it required him to cut a deal on a number of changes to House rules. One of those — lowering the motion to vacate threshold to just one member — ultimately led to Mr. McCarthy’s removal from the speakership. Even then, he had to coax six GOP members into voting present, rather than vote against him.

While every congressional session begins on January 3, members of the House may not be sworn in until a speaker is elected. According to the House procedure manual compiled by the Congressional Research Service, the new Congress may not be sworn in until the “members-elect” choose a Speaker of the House. Because Mr. McCarthy did not take the oath until January 7, 2023, the House was technically dissolved between January 3 and January 7 that year.

If conservative members follow through on their threats to not support Mr. Johnson, members will not be sworn in, meaning the House may not convene early enough to certify the 2024 Electoral College results before the January 20 inauguration. If such a thing were to take place and the electoral vote is not certified by Noon on January 20, the presidency would fall to the 91-year-old lawmaker from Iowa, Senator Grassley.

In this situation, President Trump and Vice President-elect Vance would not be eligible for the oaths of office because the Electoral College has not been certified, and assuming the speakership would still be empty, the presidency would also not fall to Mr. Johnson, who is currently second in line to the presidency behind Vice President Harris.

After the speaker, the Oval Office falls to the Senate president pro tempore — an office that will be occupied by Mr. Grassley come January 3. That’s because the position of Senate president pro tempore is held by the longest-serving senator of the majority party. Currently, the position is held by Senator Murray, who has represented Washington State as a Democrat since 1993.

Once Republicans officially take control of the Senate on January 3, the office would again be held by Mr. Grassley, who has represented Iowa in the chamber since 1981. As America roundly rejected the outgoing 81-year old president and his deputy this past November, it would be nothing short of pure satire that Republican dysfunction gives the country a 91-year-old commander-in-chief.

Even if only for a few hours or days, especially as concerns about Washington’s gerontocracy have abounded since a septuagenarian with cancer was elevated to lead Democrats on a powerful House committee and a Texas congresswoman with “dementia issues” was recently found living at a retirement home.

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