Russian President Vladimir Putin has congratulated Donald Trump on his recent election victory, sparking questions about the future of US-Russia relations and Moscow’s expectations regarding Ukraine, Nato, and economic sanctions.
As Russia’s conditions for ending the war in Ukraine remain steadfast, Putin’s public endorsement of Trump comes with signals of cautious optimism.
After a relatively
subdued response by the Kremlin following Trump’s victory, Putin addressed the outcome on Thursday, noting Trump’s “courageous” response to an attempted assassination in Pennsylvania during a campaign rally in July.
Speaking at the Valdai Club in Sochi,
Putin commended Trump’s reaction, saying, “He behaved, in my opinion, in a very correct way, courageously, like a real man.” Putin’s comments were laden with respect, and he used the occasion to express openness to renewed dialogue with the US under Trump’s administration.
Putin referenced Trump’s campaign statements about improving relations with Russia and his proposed peace plan for Ukraine. “What was said about the desire to restore relations with Russia, to bring about the end of the Ukrainian crisis, in my opinion this deserves attention at least,” Putin remarked. Despite his diplomatic invitation, he tempered expectations: “I do not know what is going to happen now. I have no clue.”
This combination of cautious optimism and doubt reflects Putin’s complex view of Trump. While Moscow welcomes Trump’s seemingly pro-Russia stance, Putin and his administration are aware of Trump’s unpredictability and past promises that went unfulfilled.
What does Putin want from the US?
Putin’s hopes for renewed diplomacy are tied closely to the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, where the Kremlin has maintained firm conditions for peace.
In June, Putin articulated these terms: Ukraine must renounce ambitions to join Nato and withdraw all troops from the four partially occupied regions claimed by Russia, which include Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson. Additionally, Russia insists on keeping
control of Crimea, which it annexed in 2014.
Russian President Vladimir Putin attends a plenary session as part of the 21st annual meeting of the Valdai Discussion Club titled ‘Lasting peace on what basis? Common security and equal opportunities for development in the 21st century’ in Sochi, Krasnodar region, Russia, 07 November 2024. File Image/Reuters
These demands reflect Russia’s broader strategic goals. Putin has previously railed against Nato’s expansion, arguing that it poses a threat to Russian security.
Western leaders, in contrast, view these demands as an unacceptable ultimatum. Putin reinforced Russia’s stance by asserting, “It is useless to put pressure on us. But we are always ready to negotiate with full consideration of mutual legitimate interests.”
Putin’s comments also came with a warning for the West, whom he accused of dragging the world toward a “dangerous line” by trying to impose a strategic defeat on Russia. “The West has never accepted us as an equal partner since the fall of the Soviet Union,” Putin argued, suggesting that Moscow has faced longstanding marginalisation from Western powers.
Can Trump end the war in Ukraine?
Throughout his campaign, Trump suggested he could
end the Ukraine conflict within “24 hours” if elected, though he has not provided specifics on how he would achieve peace. Trump has hinted that he might seek a quick resolution by pressuring Ukraine into making territorial concessions.
His vice-president-elect, JD Vance, has echoed this stance,
advocating for reduced aid to Ukraine. But Trump’s record during his first term suggests Moscow may be wary of expecting too much from him. Despite his pro-Russia rhetoric, Trump failed to lift sanctions on Russia over its annexation of Crimea and other actions.
Republican presidential nominee and former US President Donald Trump and Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy meet at Trump Tower in New York City, US, September 27, 2024. File Image/Reuters
Dmitry Medvedev, Deputy Chairman of Russia’s Security Council, voiced scepticism about Trump’s ability to deliver on his promises. “He can’t stop the war. Not in a day, not in three days, not in three months,” Medvedev stated, calling Trump’s words “banalities.” He warned that if Trump took drastic steps toward ending the war, he could face risks, even likening his fate to that of
US President Kennedy.
Similarly, Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov expressed doubt that Trump would alter Washington’s “Russophobic course,” cautioning, “Whoever wins the election, we see no prospect of America changing its Russophobic course.”
Moreover, Trump’s first term as president saw limited progress toward Russian goals, despite his public stance. Russian officials observed that Trump, known for his erratic decisions, did not significantly improve bilateral relations.
Putin vs Nato
Since the Cold War’s end, Putin has repeatedly condemned Nato’s eastward expansion as a threat to Russian security. In 2021, months before the war in Ukraine escalated, Putin even demanded that US forces withdraw to positions held in 1997, prior to Nato’s eastward moves, and criticised Nato’s open-door policy to countries like Ukraine and Georgia.
The US and its allies have rejected these demands. Instead, they responded with economic sanctions on Russia following the invasion of Ukraine.
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Trump’s stance on sanctions has been mixed: he has stated they should be used judiciously to protect the dollar’s global influence, but he has not clarified whether he would consider lifting current sanctions on Russia.
His former Secretary of State, Mike Pompeo, has advocated tightening sanctions on Russia and has proposed a $500 billion “lend-lease” program to arm Ukraine, a strategy that runs counter to Russian interests.
Who will engage first? Trump or Putin?
The Kremlin appears in no rush to finalise peace on unfavourable terms, especially as
Russian forces make gradual gains on the frontlines.
Despite sustaining losses, estimated at over 600,000 soldiers either dead or wounded, Russia continues its military push in Ukraine, particularly in the Donbas region, where it has been using artillery to capture territory town by town. Russia’s military strategy highlights Moscow’s patience; they appear willing to hold their position and wait for more favourable terms.
Russian President Vladimir Putin and US President Donald Trump attend a meeting on the sidelines of the G20 summit in Osaka, Japan, June 28, 2019. File Image/Reuters
For Trump to gain Putin’s trust and cooperation, his administration would need to demonstrate
a clear policy toward Russia and the Ukraine conflict. Given the wide range of views within Trump’s team — ranging from Vance’s support for a demilitarised zone in Ukraine to other Republicans advocating for increased military aid to Kyiv — the Kremlin is likely to wait and see how Trump’s policy unfolds.
In the meantime, Putin has made it clear that he will not settle for half-measures. Russia’s expectations from the US include halting Nato expansion, lifting sanctions, and effectively allowing Moscow to dictate terms in Ukraine.
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With inputs from agencies
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Publish date : 2024-11-07 21:21:00
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