Maduro’s third term in Venezuela could mean more migrants seeking asylum in the U.S.

[ad_1]

The Weekly Dispatch takes a deep dive into breaking events and issues of significance around our world and our nation today, providing the background readers need to make better sense of the headlines speeding past us each week. For more news and analysis from around the world, visit Dispatches.

Many Venezuelans had high hopes that the election on July 28 could be a turning point for their long-suffering nation. Since the death of socialist leader Hugo Chavez in 2013 and the ascension of his predecessor Nicholás Maduro, Venezuela has suffered from political and economic turmoil that has driven more than 7.7 million people out of the country in what has been described as the world’s greatest displacement crisis.

The election was seen by many in Venezuela as the strongest challenge so far to the nation’s ruling party, which has been in power for 25 years but has become increasingly unpopular.

But hopes for change were dashed just hours after polls closed when the National Electoral Council declared that Mr. Maduro had been re-elected to a third term as president in a contest that had experienced notable irregularities. That outcome has been questioned by political leaders around the hemisphere and challenged by opposition forces who had been confident of victory because of the large voter turnout and election polling that seemed to assure the end of Venezuela’s United Socialist Party rule.

Speaking in Tokyo on July 29, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said that U.S. officials “have serious concerns that the result announced does not reflect the will or the votes of the Venezuelan people.”

“It’s critical that every vote be counted fairly and transparently that the electoral authorities immediately share information with the opposition and independent observers without delay and that the electoral authorities publish the tabulation of votes,” he said. “The international community is watching this very closely and will respond accordingly.”

The Venezuelan election was of keen interest in Washington. Hundreds of thousands of Venezuelans have sought asylum in the United States in recent years, escaping government-sponsored violence, corruption and dismal economic opportunity and contributing to a border crisis that has gone to the top of the political agenda as the United States undertakes its own presidential elections.

That migration crisis at the U.S. border may only be exacerbated now that Mr. Maduro, who has been variously accused of both narco-trafficking and multiple human rights offenses, has been returned to power. In recent surveys, more than 40 percent of Venezuelans said they planned to join the nation’s vast self-imposed exile if Mr. Maduro was elected to another six-year term.

Mario Russell, the executive director of the Center for Migration Studies in New York, advises U.S. immigration officials to brace for impact. “The vote in Venezuela reminds us of the social, political and structural challenges that exist around us,” he said, responding to America by email.

Like other “situations of global conflict, strife and persecution,” Venezuela’s renewed crisis demands attention and assistance from other states. “That more Venezuelans may flee following the [election] outcome, seeking safety and security, is no surprise; the United States, like its neighbors throughout South and Central America must prepare to receive them and respond to the moment with appropriate processes and protections.”

A new wave of asylum seekers at the border will no doubt come into rhetorical play as U.S. elections approach. But, Mr. Russell warns, U.S. immigration policymakers “cannot allow the rhetoric and politics of the day to define our response…we must remember our history and our belief that a just and compassionate society are always possible."

In response to the electoral council’s decision in favor of Mr. Maduro, large-scale demonstrations broke out across Venezuela on July 30, and some have been violently suppressed by government security forces and party loyalists. Foro Penal, a Venezuelan human rights organization, reports that more than 420 have been arrested and 11 people have been killed in post-election violence.

In a statement released on July 30, the Commission for the Care of Life, Justice and Peace of the Venezuelan Conference of Religious Men and Women offered prayers for those killed or wounded in the demonstrations and urged “calm and common sense to avoid further damage and bloodshed among brothers.” The commission joined calls for complete and transparent access to voting tallies.

According to its statement: “An expert and independent audit would contribute to truth and social peace.” The commission urged “the population not to allow themselves to be involved in or fall into acts of violence.”

“Peaceful protest is a human right protected by our National Constitution and an important resource in the construction of Peace,” the commission said. It also urged Venezuela’s “forces of law and order not to repress or shoot at the sovereign people, on the contrary, we ask them to guarantee the right to protest, to physical integrity and life.”

“Citizens deserve respect and access to the truth,” the commission concluded. “Remember ‘we must obey God rather than men’ (Acts 5:29) and God’s command says: ‘You shall not kill’ (Ex. 20:13).”

Atlanta’s Carter Center, one of the few outside monitoring entities invited to observe Sunday’s vote, condemned the electoral commission’s “complete lack of transparency” during the vote tabulation and in its ensuing reporting. In a statement released on July 30, the Carter Center reported that it was unable to verify the election results.

According to the statement: “Venezuela’s electoral process did not meet international standards of electoral integrity at any of its stages and violated numerous provisions of its own national laws.”

The Carter Center reports that the election “took place in an environment of restricted freedoms for political actors, civil society organizations, and the media. Throughout the electoral process, the [election commission] demonstrated a clear bias in favor of the incumbent.”

It added: “The electoral authority’s failure to announce disaggregated results by polling station constitutes a serious breach of electoral principles.”

A close regional ally of Mr. Maduro, Colombian President Gustavo Petro, on July 31 urged Mr. Maduro to release detailed vote counts. A day earlier, another ally, Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, along with U.S. President Joe Biden, called for the “immediate release of full, transparent, and detailed voting data at the polling station level.”

Finally acceding to growing domestic and international pressure on July 31, Mr. Maduro asked the country’s Supreme Court, notably composed of socialist party loyalists, to conduct an audit of the election.

Venezuela’s presidential election on July 28 pitted the Mr. Maduro, who claims the revolutionary mantle of his predecessor Chavez, against Edmundo González, a retired diplomat who was picked out of relative obscurity as candidate after opposition leader María Corina Machado was banned from running by judges loyal to Mr. Maduro.

On July 29, Venezuela’s elections agency, the National Electoral Council, said Mr. Maduro had won the election with 51 percent of the votes, while Mr. Gonzalez achieved only 44 percent of the vote. The council did not provide a detailed breakdown of the result, which contrasted greatly from exit polls published on election day that gave Mr. González a 20- to 30-point lead over Mr. Maduro.

Mr. González and Ms. Machado say they obtained more than two-thirds of the tally sheets that each electronic voting machine printed after polls closed and by their count Mr. Maduro lost the election by more than a two to one margin.

The National Electoral Council has yet to release any printed results from polling centers as it did in past elections. On July 31 Mr. Maduro insisted to reporters, without providing evidence, that there had been a plot against his government and that the electoral system had been hacked. Reuters reports that Mr. Maduro told supporters that his government was reaching out to both China and Russia for help with alleged attacks on the electoral authority’s systems, which he blamed on billionaire Elon Musk.

Mr. Maduro accused the opposition of trying to stage a coup with the help of Western governments. “Venezuela is facing national and international aggression, led by world powers,” he told a counter-demonstration that was held by government supporters in front of Venezuela’s presidential palace. So far only a handful of countries have recognized Mr. Maduro’s victory, including China, Russia, Iran, Nicaragua and Cuba, while leaders of other nations in the region have asked for a credible accounting of the votes.

The Venezuelan Bishops Conference released a statement on July 29, praising the “massive, active, and civic participation of all Venezuelans in the electoral process” and calling for electoral transparency. “We join our voices with all those inside and outside Venezuela who demand a process of verification of the ballot results, in which all the involved political actors participate actively and fully,” the bishops said.

The Jesuit-sponsored Gumilla Center, a Caracas-based center for research and social action, issued a statement on July 29 urging restraint among opposition protesters who have taken to the streets to challenge the commission’s decision. Rejecting “any incitement to hatred, violence and political persecution,” the center urged that Venezuelans contesting the election “follow paths of peace, which requires respect for the Constitution on the part of all citizens, organizations, Armed Forces and public powers.”

But the center did demand that the National Electoral Council must “in a transparent manner” allow opposition parties and the Venezuelan public access to all the electoral records to verify and validate the election results. “Until this is clarified, it is not fair to recognize the one who has been proclaimed the winner,” the center advised in its statement.

The center urged the international community to “continue to mediate” the process “to ensure that the electoral process complies with the Constitution, that reasonable doubts about the results are clarified and that the truth prevails, through independent audits.”