The Future of US-Venezuela Relations Under Trump

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As President-elect Donald Trump prepares for his inauguration, a critical question has emerged: what impact will the new US administration have on organized crime in Venezuela?

During his first term, Trump’s approach to Venezuela was marked by a “maximum pressure” strategy of economic sanctions and attempts at regime change. Following the controversial 2018 Venezuelan elections, where Nicolás Maduro claimed victory amid widespread allegations of irregularities, Trump endorsed opposition leader Juan Guaidó as the rightful president of Venezuela.

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Despite these efforts, the strategy failed to dislodge Maduro. Instead, as Venezuela’s economic situation worsened due to plummeting oil revenues, Maduro tightened his control. He increasingly depended on illegal economies to support his government, leading to a kind of hybrid state, where governance and criminality are indistinguishably mixed. Maduro also solidified alliances with Russia and China, which provided essential support during the pandemic, strengthening his regime’s resilience and demonstrating its capability to adapt under pressure.

InSight Crime examines two scenarios, derived from expert interviews on organized crime and US policy, which could influence the trajectory of organized crime in Venezuela during Trump’s second term.

Scenario 1: Increased Pressure The first scenario, dubbed “increased pressure” by analysts, is deemed the most probable by InSight Crime based on recent expert interviews.

This strategy is likely to be led by figures such as Sen. Marco Rubio, a prominent critic of the Venezuelan government, who may be appointed secretary of state, and Mike Waltz, a potential national security advisor and proponent of sanctions against Maduro’s regime. Waltz met with Venezuela’s opposition leader, Edmundo González Urrutia, on January 6. The approach would involve intensifying international sanctions, with new measures aimed at high-ranking officials and critical sectors of Venezuela’s economy, especially the oil industry.

Experts predict that the reinstatement of more stringent sanctions would significantly cut Venezuela’s oil revenue. In response, the Venezuelan government and its allies could deepen their involvement in illicit economies, “by selling more oil on the black market through shady intermediaries,” Geoff Ramsey, a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council, told InSight Crime.

Drug trafficking stands to indirectly benefit from increased US pressure. As a crucial transit point for Colombian cocaine, Venezuela may experience heightened trafficking activities as groups seek to offset economic hardships with illicit revenue. Illegal mining, another covert and highly profitable illicit activity, is expected to expand. Still, criminal groups could encounter greater obstacles due to heightened surveillance and patrols by neighboring countries, Ramsey said.

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The growth of these illicit economies poses a significant threat to the stability of Maduro’s regime. A Venezuelan security expert, speaking under the condition of anonymity due to safety concerns, warned that the growing concentration of illicit wealth could intensify internal conflicts within the state. Struggles for control over highly profitable sectors like illegal mining could ignite violent power struggles, further destabilizing the regime. These illicit revenues could be funneled into financing arms purchases, recruiting personnel, and supporting coups or uprisings, increasing the risk of a governmental collapse.

Despite these dynamics, experts consulted by InSight Crime dismiss the likelihood of a US military intervention. Such action is seen as inconsistent with Trump’s focus on domestic agendas under his “Make America Great Again” platform, which prioritizes internal issues over foreign entanglements. The high costs and potential to worsen Venezuela’s humanitarian situation and drive up migration to the United States further detract from the feasibility of military involvement, contradicting Trump’s aims to reduce immigration.

Scenario 2: Pragmatic Cohabitation A less likely yet still feasible scenario suggested by experts is “pragmatic cohabitation,” potentially arising if Tulsi Gabbard, the proposed director of national intelligence who has voiced concerns over excessive sanctions, becomes a key figure in Trump’s administration.

In this approach, the US might pivot from sanctions and pressure to reestablish diplomatic ties with Venezuela.

“Should pragmatic cohabitation take effect, we could see economic stabilization in 2025, which would diminish Maduro’s dependence on illicit markets,” according to the Venezuelan analyst consulted by InSight Crime.

During President Joe Biden’s tenure, significant sanctions on Venezuela’s state oil company were lifted, and US oil company Chevron received operational licenses, though full diplomatic relations were not reestablished. Relations further deteriorated after the controversial July 2024 elections, with Biden recognizing the opposition leader as the legitimate winner after allegations of electoral fraud against Maduro.

For Trump to pursue pragmatic cohabitation, enhanced efforts to initiate dialogue between the two nations would be necessary. Given Trump’s expressed respect for authoritative figures, such as Russia’s Vladimir Putin, he might be inclined to negotiate directly with Maduro. These discussions could aim to curtail migration from Venezuela by offering concessions in oil sector negotiations.

SEE ALSO: Security Forces in Venezuela Extort Detainees Amid Political Repression

Renewed dialogue could lead to an easing of sanctions, revitalizing Venezuela’s oil sector. This recovery would lessen the government’s dependence on black-market oil sales and attract foreign investment, which would improve oil infrastructure and boost state revenues.

The private sector, which has suffered under sanctions that restricted international trade and deterred foreign investors, also stands to gain. The absence of restrictions would help the Venezuelan economy overall, increasing the population’s income by generating more legal employment, which could lessen the dependency on illicit economies.

At the same time, economic recovery would also impact human trafficking. With fewer Venezuelans forced to flee due to necessity, vulnerability to mega crime networks like the homegrown Tren de Aragua would be reduced, weakening this transnational organization. Still, even in a scenario of pragmatic cohabitation, criminal economies would continue to operate in Venezuela. Corrupt government and security officials from Maduro’s regime would have no incentive to give up the illegal revenues enriching them under the environment of impunity that the state has guaranteed to perpetuate its power. And the presence of criminal groups, such as the National Liberation Army (Ejército de Liberación Nacional – ELN), and their close relationships with state actors, ensures that criminal activities would continue to affect the security of the country and the region.

Featured Image: US President-elect Donald Trump at an event in Miami last year. Credit: T.J. Kirkpatrick for The New York Times.

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